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Quick Question: How to tell if a hitter is unlucky?

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Quick Question: How to tell if a hitter is unlucky?

Postby SuperSlugger360 » Mon May 15, 2006 9:10 pm

What sabremetric stats can tell you what hitters are unlucky and which aren't? Like I know for pitchers, some sabremetric stats are BIPA or run support or those cats. But which sabremetric stats would tell you which hitters are unlucky / lucky?

Thanks.
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Postby j24jags » Mon May 15, 2006 9:13 pm

Usually just looking at someones K Rate is helpful to a certain extent.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Mon May 15, 2006 9:17 pm

He has Joe Torre as his manager, plays first but has low "energy", and gets his one start a week vs Johan Santana.
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Re: Quick Question: How to tell if a hitter is unlucky?

Postby RynMan » Mon May 15, 2006 9:23 pm

SuperSlugger360 wrote:What sabremetric stats can tell you what hitters are unlucky and which aren't? Like I know for pitchers, some sabremetric stats are BIPA or run support or those cats. But which sabremetric stats would tell you which hitters are unlucky / lucky?

Thanks.


BIPA - I'm assuming you mean batting average on balls put into play? This can sometimes show whether a pitcher has been unlucky, but relies alot on how efficient the defense behind him is.

It's tough to figure out which hitters have been lucky and unlucky. Protrade have a section where they list the top ten luckiest and unluckiest hitters. They calculate these by looking at every ball hit into play and determining whether or not the batter could have easily had a hit in that instance, or if they were actually lucky to get a hit. It's not an exact science but it's probably as close as you can get. Hits are just balls hit into a place the fielder isn't. 2 inches to the right and they could be outs. This is why batting average fluctuates so often.

I like to look at a guy's BB and K rates, along with things like their line drive rates. This at least can tell you whether or not they are lost at the plate or not. Also looking at how the guy is getting out (FB or GB) in relation to his career norms may also give you some sort of idea.
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Postby SuperSlugger360 » Mon May 15, 2006 9:26 pm

Yeah, BIPA is exactly that RynMan. RynMan, can you link me to this Protrade website?

Thanks guys.
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Postby cristóbal » Mon May 15, 2006 9:27 pm

how to tell?
i dont know, just watch aram.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon May 15, 2006 9:37 pm

Hardball Times has a stat called projected OPS, which uses batted ball data to estimate OPS. if prOPS>actual OPS, the player is likely to improve, while if actual OPS>PrOPS then he is likely to decline. The first estimate of PrOPS should be available soon.
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Postby RynMan » Mon May 15, 2006 9:39 pm

SuperSlugger360 wrote:Yeah, BIPA is exactly that RynMan. RynMan, can you link me to this Protrade website?

Thanks guys.


http://www.protrade.com/insight/InsightArticleDetail.html?sp=KRC3009087&x=x

That was a few days ago....the ten luckiest and unluckiest hitters.
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