it seems very likely at this point that Felipe steals 50 bases this year (esp. given that Jerry Narron has gone on record as saying he has the green light to steal all season). Lopez had significant value coming into the season based soley on his power numbers at 2B/SS. Add 50 steals to his 2005 totals and we're looking at a ridiculous line of
97 runs .291 23 HR 85 RBI 50 Stls
This is not even taking into account the almost certain boost his numbers should get from batting leadoff in the powerful Reds lineup. Given that Crawford's power surge doesn't appear to be taking hold, should not Felipe take over as the guy with the most realistic shot at going 20/50???
Seems to me that if Reyes/Figgins are 2nd rounders, then a guy with their speed and 25 HR power should be a first rounder.
Am I nuts??? Someone please knock some sense into me....
Last edited by Willy T 4 MVP on Mon May 15, 2006 3:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
WHIR makes me laugh when i see it in the Leftovers forum...
Anyways, i don't know about Felipe being a first rounder. Let's not go overboard here. He's had a hot week, no doubt, but remember that he'd still have Tejada, Young, possibly even Jeter ahead of him in SS rankings alone. He'd also have to crack the likes of Guerrero, Santana, Teixeira, Ramirez, Ortiz, to have a chance at first-roundedness.
Don't even get me started on Crawford. Most overrated fantasy dude of all-time.
haha, good point thursday on the WHIR- cut me some slack it's my 2nd day
as far as felipe, i realize that he's just hot right now, but the rest of his offensive numbers are far from gaudy. it's the blazing speed that seems to have taken everyone by surprise. speed doesnt go in a slump or get hot. you either have speed or you dont. you either have the green light or you don't. that's pretty much it. (i realise its not QUITE that simple, but for arguments sake lets assume it is). felipe keeping up the pace and stealing 50+ isnt nearly as unlikely as someone like gomes keeping the pace and hitting 60 HR.
I whole heartedly agree that carl crawford is the most overrated thing since sliced bread, but i also think that this year's version of felipe is what the hype machine has projected for crawford all these years.
As far as him not being a first rounder. Just to use an example from my draft, chone figgins went 15th overall. subtract 10 steals and add 15-20 homeruns and I'd say you have a late first round type value, no?
Add in a .300 average and that's what people hope for from crawford. They draft craw with the expectation that he will eventually hit 20 homers. Lopez seems much more capable of doing that, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him more valuable at the end of the year. As far as next year goes, I'd think he end up in the second round as long he keeps this up. Players don't usually jump into the first round without being second-rounders the year before (Ortiz, Tex, etc.).
Yeah, I agree with the post above, IF he continues to put up numbers like he has so far, he might have first round value. However, to be a first rounder, a player has to show consistency. Nobody is going to choose a guy in the first round based on one good year, and one great year when he wasn't any good the years before (realizing he was young, but still, with a first rounder you want a guy who has been great every since he entered the league, or has put together several great years in a row).
That Reds team is running mad; Freel, Lopez, and Phillips.
If you assume he'll keep running then I don't see why he couldn't be a late first round pick... but, that is a gamble. I'd much rather plug in Tejada, Young, or Jeter and just forget it about it - no concerns.
I don't see him drafted ahead of Tejada or Young. I like him, but I'd take him in the 3rd round as of now.
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I agree, he needs to keep up the pace this season and do it agian next year before he could approach a 1st round pick. He should still be a very solid value pick next year in the late seond/third rounds.
SB's are really really streaky. He easily could end the year at 15 HR, 35 SB still which doesn't put him at first round value at all. Its just way too early to tell. The other problem is he's leading off now so his RBI are going to kill you, guys like Crawford still drive in 80 runs which does a lot to help their value.
At the end of the day I think there is no way Lopez is 1st round next year, but he could be early 2nd round for sure if he keeps playing well.