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Zach Duke's value... going forward

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Zach Duke's value... going forward

Postby Top Dog » Sun May 14, 2006 11:46 pm

Our usual "impatient" owner in my league dropped Zach Duke today after another so-so outing.. I was high on this guy going into the season and tried to trade for him early in the season. But looking over his stats I wonder where he is going forward..

His last 2 games.

6 ip, 8 h, 4 ER, 5 K
6 ip, 8 h, 5 ER, 4 K

His overall stats are 2-4, 51 IP, 29K, 4.24 ERA, 1.43 WHIP.

Does he have more value than someone like Kevin Millwood who is struggling but plays for a much better team? Duke was never going to win 20 with that team behind him this year but I thought he would be doing better at this point.

Anyone been watching him to add any insight? Slow start or sign of a mediocre year?
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Postby j24jags » Sun May 14, 2006 11:48 pm

id take duke over millwood easily, i think hell turn it around. this is his sophomore slump, coming into the season hitters had game tape of him and were able to adjust, hell learn to readjust and will be a solid pitcher
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Postby pangbones » Mon May 15, 2006 1:01 am

He was dropped in my league, and I grabbed him. But I'm dropping him, pending waiver, for Hamels. I think he's an ok SP to have, won't get many K's, and won't get many wins. He owns the Cubs, but other than those 2 games, he's been pretty mediocre. He gives up a lot of hits and walks too. I don't see him as anything more than a #5 SP, depending on how deep the league is of course.
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Postby josebach » Mon May 15, 2006 12:54 pm

pangbones wrote:He was dropped in my league, and I grabbed him. But I'm dropping him, pending waiver, for Hamels. I think he's an ok SP to have, won't get many K's, and won't get many wins. He owns the Cubs, but other than those 2 games, he's been pretty mediocre. He gives up a lot of hits and walks too. I don't see him as anything more than a #5 SP, depending on how deep the league is of course.


I just dropped Duke for Hamels also. The way Duke is playing, I figured it would be a toss up as to who would have a better ERA and WHIP, but as you said Hamels should definitely get more Ks and Wins.

I've watched Duke pitch twice now and his stuff is far from dominant. When he hits his spots, he does very well. When he doesn't, he's mediocre at best.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon May 15, 2006 1:17 pm

josebach wrote:
pangbones wrote:He was dropped in my league, and I grabbed him. But I'm dropping him, pending waiver, for Hamels. I think he's an ok SP to have, won't get many K's, and won't get many wins. He owns the Cubs, but other than those 2 games, he's been pretty mediocre. He gives up a lot of hits and walks too. I don't see him as anything more than a #5 SP, depending on how deep the league is of course.


I just dropped Duke for Hamels also. The way Duke is playing, I figured it would be a toss up as to who would have a better ERA and WHIP, but as you said Hamels should definitely get more Ks and Wins.

I've watched Duke pitch twice now and his stuff is far from dominant. When he hits his spots, he does very well. When he doesn't, he's mediocre at best.


Duke never really showed a high k/9 in the minor leagues (7.25 k/9). He was more of a control (3.15 k/bb)/ keep the ball in the park (0.43 hr/9) kind of guy. A guy that only k's 7.25 people per nine in his minor league career isn't likely to dominate major league hitters. His control has to be up to if not better than his minor league mark (2.3 bb/9) for him to be successful as well as him continuing to keep the hr/9 down.

This year his bb/9 is up to 3.53 and his hr/9 is up to 1.06. Without dominating stuff you're right - he needs to hit his spots. He's not doing it this year and he's paying the price. I think he can rebound but his minor league numbers don't point to a dominating major league pitcher. Even last year when everything went right his DICE was just below 3.00 and his pWhip was 1.233. Now that the league has scouting reports on him I would expect his k/9 to drop some...and it was only 6.17 last year. This year it's down to 5.11. I would expect it to settle somewhere in the middle of the two...maybe around 5.75 k/9. His bb/9 should return close to his career minor league mark...probably around the 2.5 bb/9 range with him having to be more careful with major league hitters and his hr/9 should drop some as well but not nearly as much as in the minors...maybe around 0.75 hr/9.

I'd guess you could expect the following from him:
5.75 k/9, 2.50 bb/9, 0.75 hr/9
DICE: 3.64
pWhip: 1.31

His low home run rates give him the potential for quality era numbers but his lack of dominance and pinpoint (Silva 2005 level) control lead to a higher than average whip. And given the team for which he plays he has limited upside in the wins category. Not an overly valuable fantasy pitcher.
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Postby MentalPowerHouse » Mon May 15, 2006 1:54 pm

I dunno... I had him but dropped him. I don't see much value in a guy who wont get many Ws or Ks and will have a ERA around 4...
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Postby Mercer Boy » Tue May 16, 2006 5:47 pm

Yeah, basically Duke will be a fairly solid pitcher in real life but won't help you in fantasy world. He's probably a #4 or #5 at best.

Let me bring my projections for him that I posted earlier in the year back up in this thread...

30 starts
190 IP
200 H
60 BB
100 K
80 ER
3.79 ERA
1.37 WHIP
12 W
11 L
7 ND's

So I suppose I'm not too far off so far...the ERA needs to come down a little though. ;-D
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