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Hitting now, Pitching Later: Sound Strategy or Insanity?

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Hitting now, Pitching Later: Sound Strategy or Insanity?

Postby SeovyeQuirsefron » Sun May 14, 2006 1:53 pm

Seven out of the 12 managers in my league are running WAAY over their pitching quotas. On average these guys are at about 380 innings, when a pace to get them to the 1250 IP limit would have them at about 270 IP now. Myself, I'm at about 255 IP.

I'm thinking of taking it easy, being extremely selective with my pitching, and waiting until the middle of August when all these guys start running out of pitching availability, and then trading for their studs.

Right now, my pitching isn't much anyhow:

Starters
Kazmir
Tomko
Sean Marshall
Colon (DL)
Harden (DL)

Closers
Wickman
Todd Jones
Baez (Piece 0' Crap)
Putz


I recently traded away Randy Johnson (who I believe is done as a premier pitcher) and Troy Glaus to get Andruw Jones.

I'm thinking I could get a lot in the way of offense for Scott Kazmir too. For instance, Kazmir and Alex Rios for Vladdy.

I've looked all over for some other good pitchers, and they're just not there. I guess this goes along with the fact that everybody's running up their IP. I could fill out my pitching roster with guys like Duaner Sanchez, and others who don't pitch much but have great strikeout ratitos, ERA, and WHIP.

Thanks in advance.

If you want my help, just ask in your reply. Althogh this post may indicate that I don't know what the hell I'm doing.

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12-Team Non-Keeper Roto League, 19 Categories

C- Johjima, McCann
1B - Ortiz
2B - Soriano
3B - Beltre, Bill E. Hall
SS - Hanley Ramirez, Jhonny Peralta
OF - Andruw Jones, J.D. Drew, Alex Rios, Preston Wilson, Willy Taveras, Milton Bradley
Also -- Jorge Cantu

SP -- Kazmir, Tomko, Harden, Colon, Sean Marshall
RP - Wickman, Baez, Todd Jones, Putz
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Postby johnsamo » Sun May 14, 2006 2:47 pm

I'm doing the opposite... running up pitching totals early the trade later to upgrade my hitting. My first 4 picks were pitchers while everybody else was pretty balanced.... fortunately, because of my keepers, all I need are 3b, 2b and SS and 1 0f upgrade.
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Postby SeovyeQuirsefron » Sun May 14, 2006 3:17 pm

johnsamo wrote:I'm doing the opposite... running up pitching totals early the trade later to upgrade my hitting. My first 4 picks were pitchers while everybody else was pretty balanced.... fortunately, because of my keepers, all I need are 3b, 2b and SS and 1 0f upgrade.


You're the guy I want to trade with later. And since there are 7 of these guys in my league, I'm hoping I'll be in good bargaining position.
A baseball fan has the digestive apparatus of a billy goat. He can, and does, devour any set of diamond statistics with insatiable appetite and then nuzzles hungrily for more. ~Arthur Daley
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Postby rainman23 » Sun May 14, 2006 3:44 pm

Well, I think your theory is good, but you're taking it too far. Your staff is going to be so abysmal right now that you're either a.) going to be putting up some pretty bad numbers early, or b.) winding up WAY under at the end of the season. You'll be looking kind of desperate to some of your leaguemates then, so I'm not sure you can't count on the great deals you're hoping for.

I think you're on the right track, being selective in your starts, staying on pace (or a little under) in your IPs, and hoping to make a decent deal or too late for pitching. Just don't plan on hitting the jackpot.

Oh, and that Vladdy deal -- do not see it happening.
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Postby BritSox » Sun May 14, 2006 3:51 pm

It doesn't make sense to trade any more pitching now. The strategy relies on trading from a position of strength, as the only guy in any need of pitching, vs loads of guys with surplus. If you have a terrible staff, you appear desperate and lose leverage.

By all means, trade for pitching later. But considering you're not that far from being on target to hit the IP limit, with three good hurlers DLed, don't go mad.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Sun May 14, 2006 8:53 pm

It depends on how it's handled. The advantage to doing it your way is that you'll get more games than most guys would get from their stud hitters (assuming you wait till close to the trade deadline to deal the guys). The disadvantage is that you're gonna need to trade for lots of SP's if you wait till the deadline to make it worthwhile which means your offense may drop off some down the stretch.

I would suggest checking to see how many quality MR's are out there to pick up and deal away some of your questionable SP's for more offensive upgrades in some 2-1 deals. Then pick up some quality MR's and teams that will put up lots of wins (hoping that some of those wins go to your MR's)...guys like Shields, Heilman, Rincon, Soriano, Linebrink, Liriano (if he's unowned) all fit the bill. This will help you dominate the ratio categories as well as putting you in great shape in K's (since everyone's limited to 1250ip I always view k's as k/9 in roto leagues...you're looking for high k/9 guys to allow you to dominate that category). You also won't be in too bad of shape in wins since guys like Shields tend to be in the top 20-30 pitchers in wins/9 as well.
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Postby johnsamo » Sun May 14, 2006 10:14 pm

It really matters how the rest of the league drafts though. I'd intended to draft more equally, but as the draft went down, each time up, the hitters were going too fast IMO and there were pitchers who were falling that shouldn't have been falling so ar, so I kept grabbing them. I'm in a league with 6 keepers each year, and I already had Pujols, Miggy Cabrera and Carl Crawford so I knew I could hold my own on offense till I started dealing.

The ironic thing is, the pitchers I got had rough starts but they're dealing lately. On offense, I also got some nice late draft picks like Dye and Jorge Posada, who really fell in the draft because of his age I guess so I got him cheap. I also picked up Crede, Hawpe and Brousard, who've hit well.
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Postby calecalo » Sun May 14, 2006 11:42 pm

I like your theory... but don't be afraid to take some chances on FA pitchers. (I see you have Marshall, so you're already doing that.) I'd make sure you don't fall too far behind (Even Aces don't get a win every time out, so you don't want to be dead in the water come August)... But overall I like the chance your taking.

In past years, I've been able to pick up Fuentes, Street, Duke, Myers, K-rod, King Felix, Harang and numerous others of the FA list. I've also seen the D-train taken in round 21 last year finish as a top 5 pitcher. Pitchers aren't as consistent as hitters (Unless you've drafted a top 5 guy), so good luck scouring the waiver wire and making late season trades.
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Postby SeovyeQuirsefron » Sun May 14, 2006 11:55 pm

Thanks all for the feedback.

Loveable Loser especially. I DIDN'T EVEN KNOW there was a trade deadline in Fantasy Baseball. I'm glad you -- inadvertently perhaps -- brought it to my attention. I would have really screwed myself.
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Postby cy23young » Mon May 15, 2006 1:07 am

i think you drafted a bad pitching staff. i dont see anyway but being selective. you say 7 of 12 teams are going over in pitching. well, im sure most of them have a game plan too. i would trade for a pitcher now before you to where you cant catch you.
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