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Postby The Loveable Losers » Fri May 12, 2006 5:11 pm

AT wrote:Garf you know I love you, but if you agree with the above bolded lines and think Willie would go to Heilman to close before Sanchez you're missing something. It's not even about stats or their history, blah blah blah, I've heard Willie in interviews and I listen to him talk about these guys every single week and he's going to Sanchez 100% before Heilman to close. No question about it. Show all the stats you want, all the pedigree, blah blah blah, Willie's going to Sanchez.


This is one I have to agree with AT on. He is listening to what is being said in NY and Willie is making it clear Sanchez would be his go to guy. Stats dont make a damned bit of difference without opportunity and if Willie wants Sanchez in there then Heilman wont get the opportunity.

(Note: My apostrophe key isnt working right now...sorry for leaving them out)
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Postby garf112 » Fri May 12, 2006 6:04 pm

AT, I try to listen to all the pregames on the FAN as well, maybe I'm missing something. Again, I don't really think it matters because Wagner is going to be fine. I haven't heard Willie say, "Sanchez is my man if Wagner needs a blow." Therefore, I am making my own conclusion. Using my own eyes and ears.
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Postby nuggets » Fri May 12, 2006 6:08 pm

AKhomebrewer wrote:Hoo, boy. It's Putz/Soriano all over again, and Wagner hasn't even turned into Guardado yet (the three blown saves were a nifty impersonation, though).




exactly what I was thinking.
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Postby nuggets » Fri May 12, 2006 6:18 pm

j24jags wrote:
garf112 wrote:
j24jags wrote:
garf112 wrote:When Statistics Lie....

Keep in mind that this season has been a small sample size.
Heilman has a better k/9, same bb/9, same hr/9
ERA and WHIP are higher... therein lies the lie. Heilman has been a bit more unlucky than Sanchez so far. They have pretty much been the same pitcher.

Then take into account that Heilman has been doing this for at least half a year longer than Sanchez (check out Heilman's second half stats from last year), and you can see why Willie would choose to go with Heilman as his closer.

Even if you look at their career stats, it says that Heilman has the potential to be a better closer. He has a higher k/9 and lower bb/9 and similar hr/9. They have each pitched close to 200 innings. Case closed.

if k/9, bb/9 and hr/9 are similar y not go with the guy with better ERA andd WHIP though


Because k/9, bb/9 and hr/9 are the best indicators of a pitcher's FUTURE performance. ERA and WHIP are oftentimes a product of luck.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_independent_pitching_statistics

Here are a couple of good sources for you to read up on. You may not believe in it, but it has won me a few fantasy titles.

my point is though, if k/9, bb/9 and hr/9 are tight shouldnt ERA WHIP or even opponents batting average be the next tiebreaker? your 3 ratios are tight but duaner blows him away in the other 3. im not saying k/9 bb/9 and hr/9 arent important but shouldnt the others be used as a tiebreaker


pecota had Dirtay at 5.9/3.3/0.8

Heilman at 6.5/3.5/1

It looks like they both have been helped by above average D, however Dirtay hasn't been helped by any park factors, while Heilman has been. I'd go with the hot hand who has pitched that well regarless of park.


brandnew wrote:I think Duaner's got much better stuff, and plus he's got goggles.


BP's stuff ratings have Dirtay at 18 and Heilman at 19

:-b

It's Putz/Soriano people.
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Postby brandnew » Fri May 12, 2006 6:58 pm

How do you put a stat on stuff? :-/ :-/

Listen, I think Duaner's got three great pitches, while Heilman's only got 2, they're both weaker. That's just off of observation.

I feel like the world's upside down. The Mets make a fantastic, smart acquisition, and the Braves sit idly by and watch the Bullpen fall apart. :-t
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Postby garf112 » Fri May 12, 2006 7:10 pm

brandnew wrote:How do you put a stat on stuff? :-/ :-/

Listen, I think Duaner's got three great pitches, while Heilman's only got 2, they're both weaker. That's just off of observation.

I feel like the world's upside down. The Mets make a fantastic, smart acquisition, and the Braves sit idly by and watch the Bullpen fall apart. :-t


Don't get to watch the Mets much, then, huh? Heilman's fastball and changeup are both plus pitches, with the changeup being plus plus with late tailing action away from a lefthanded hitter. Heilman throws a slider every now and again that is major league average at best.

We are arguing apples and apples right now, as some of the above posters are hinting. Just as Soriano and Putz are good pitchers, so are Heilman and Sanchez.
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Postby nuggets » Fri May 12, 2006 7:19 pm

brandnew wrote:How do you put a stat on stuff? :-/ :-/


That's what I said, but I was happy it existed :-D


So far I haven't found any horrible inaccuracies:

(u asked 4 it 8-o )

A rough indicator of the pitcher's overall dominance, based on normalized strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates, runs allowed, and innings per game. "10" is league average, while "0" is roughly replacement level. The formula is as follows: Stuff = EqK9 * 6 - 1.333 * (EqERA + PERA) - 3 * EqBB9 - 5 * EqHR9 -3 * MAX{6-IP/G),0}
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Postby The Kavorka » Fri May 12, 2006 8:12 pm

Then we agree to disagree garf.

Being that we're both Met fans lets hope we never get to find out which one Willie would go with.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Fri May 12, 2006 10:45 pm

brandnew wrote:How do you put a stat on stuff? :-/ :-/



That's the key, although I've only seen a few Mets games (although they were my favorite team, in like 1974, right before I moved to the Chicago area... 8-o ), I have to say that Sanchez' stuff looked filthier in what I saw. There's no substitute for filth in the 9th...
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Postby garf112 » Sat May 13, 2006 10:54 pm

Just wanted to bump this for all three pitcher's performances tonight. What a difference a day makes in a relief pitcher's statline. Sanchez now has a 2.01 ERA, Heilman 1.77. For those that were hanging onto the idea that that ratio mattered, Heilman has now surpassed Dirty.

Also, Wagner looked decent in the ninth, and I expect smooth sailing from here on out. Looks like we'll never know who was right, which is fine by me.
Last edited by garf112 on Sun May 14, 2006 1:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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