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Postby j24jags » Thu May 11, 2006 11:25 pm

garf112 wrote:When Statistics Lie....

Keep in mind that this season has been a small sample size.
Heilman has a better k/9, same bb/9, same hr/9
ERA and WHIP are higher... therein lies the lie. Heilman has been a bit more unlucky than Sanchez so far. They have pretty much been the same pitcher.

Then take into account that Heilman has been doing this for at least half a year longer than Sanchez (check out Heilman's second half stats from last year), and you can see why Willie would choose to go with Heilman as his closer.

Even if you look at their career stats, it says that Heilman has the potential to be a better closer. He has a higher k/9 and lower bb/9 and similar hr/9. They have each pitched close to 200 innings. Case closed.

if k/9, bb/9 and hr/9 are similar y not go with the guy with better ERA andd WHIP though
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Postby garf112 » Thu May 11, 2006 11:43 pm

j24jags wrote:
garf112 wrote:When Statistics Lie....

Keep in mind that this season has been a small sample size.
Heilman has a better k/9, same bb/9, same hr/9
ERA and WHIP are higher... therein lies the lie. Heilman has been a bit more unlucky than Sanchez so far. They have pretty much been the same pitcher.

Then take into account that Heilman has been doing this for at least half a year longer than Sanchez (check out Heilman's second half stats from last year), and you can see why Willie would choose to go with Heilman as his closer.

Even if you look at their career stats, it says that Heilman has the potential to be a better closer. He has a higher k/9 and lower bb/9 and similar hr/9. They have each pitched close to 200 innings. Case closed.

if k/9, bb/9 and hr/9 are similar y not go with the guy with better ERA andd WHIP though


Because k/9, bb/9 and hr/9 are the best indicators of a pitcher's FUTURE performance. ERA and WHIP are oftentimes a product of luck.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_independent_pitching_statistics

Here are a couple of good sources for you to read up on. You may not believe in it, but it has won me a few fantasy titles.
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Postby j24jags » Fri May 12, 2006 12:26 am

garf112 wrote:
j24jags wrote:
garf112 wrote:When Statistics Lie....

Keep in mind that this season has been a small sample size.
Heilman has a better k/9, same bb/9, same hr/9
ERA and WHIP are higher... therein lies the lie. Heilman has been a bit more unlucky than Sanchez so far. They have pretty much been the same pitcher.

Then take into account that Heilman has been doing this for at least half a year longer than Sanchez (check out Heilman's second half stats from last year), and you can see why Willie would choose to go with Heilman as his closer.

Even if you look at their career stats, it says that Heilman has the potential to be a better closer. He has a higher k/9 and lower bb/9 and similar hr/9. They have each pitched close to 200 innings. Case closed.

if k/9, bb/9 and hr/9 are similar y not go with the guy with better ERA andd WHIP though


Because k/9, bb/9 and hr/9 are the best indicators of a pitcher's FUTURE performance. ERA and WHIP are oftentimes a product of luck.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_independent_pitching_statistics

Here are a couple of good sources for you to read up on. You may not believe in it, but it has won me a few fantasy titles.

my point is though, if k/9, bb/9 and hr/9 are tight shouldnt ERA WHIP or even opponents batting average be the next tiebreaker? your 3 ratios are tight but duaner blows him away in the other 3. im not saying k/9 bb/9 and hr/9 arent important but shouldnt the others be used as a tiebreaker
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Postby brandnew » Fri May 12, 2006 12:34 am

I think Duaner's got much better stuff, and plus he's got goggles.
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Postby Xtreemes » Fri May 12, 2006 1:24 am

brandnew wrote:I think Duaner's got much better stuff, and plus he's got goggles.


Yeah, gotta love the goggles. I was pissed when Jason Phillips left (besides the fact that he sucked), so I was really happy when we got Sanchez and his goggs!
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Postby AKhomebrewer » Fri May 12, 2006 2:28 am

garf112 wrote:When Statistics Lie....

Even if you look at their career stats, it says that Heilman has the potential to be a better closer. He has a higher k/9 and lower bb/9 and similar hr/9. They have each pitched close to 200 innings. Case closed.

The defense plans to file an appeal, your honor.
Sanchez has appeared in 177 games dating to 2002.
Heilman has appeared in 87 games dating to 2003.
Yes, it's apples and oranges, because Heilman has 25 career starts to Duaner's 0. But it illustrates the point that we can all find numbers to support our case. They're both fine pitchers and either is capable of doing the job, so I'll submit to the binding arbitration of Judge W. Randolph.

The defense rests, and plans to go crack a cold one.
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Postby AT » Fri May 12, 2006 8:39 am

Don't give me this "Where do you get your information from?" garbage like I don't know what I'm talking about. The Mets realize Heilman is a 2 pitch reliever and that's why he's not in the rotation. The only people who don't know that are Mets fans who have fallen in love with him through the swell of sports radio over-gushing and fantasy guys like us looking for the next big-time sleeper/steal.

Of course there's the factor that Willie and Minaya are obsessed with as strong a bullpen as possible and Heilman has been effective in the pen, but never really been effective as a SP (Save for Notre Dame but I swear I'll go crazy if you guys think that counts for anything). The Mets didn't go out and trade for Sanchez and disallow Heilman a spot in the rotation that he's been obsessing about because they like Heilman more than they like Sanchez. It just doesn't make sense. Why go out and get one guy, tell another guy "No you're not able to do X" and then tell the second guy we trust you more while the one you went out to get is unhittable?

For a Yankee fan, I know the Mets pretty well. I watch the games, I listen to the sports talk radio all day every day, I read the papers, do my research, blah blah blah. And yeah, I wouldn't know what I'm talking about with Willie at all. Only been following him since he started managing the Mets. Gimme a break man...

Mark it down. If something were to happen to Wagner, the spot is 100% Sanchez's.
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Postby The Kavorka » Fri May 12, 2006 8:55 am

garf112 wrote:When Statistics Lie....

Keep in mind that this season has been a small sample size.
Heilman has a better k/9, same bb/9, same hr/9
ERA and WHIP are higher... therein lies the lie. Heilman has been a bit more unlucky than Sanchez so far. They have pretty much been the same pitcher.

Then take into account that Heilman has been doing this for at least half a year longer than Sanchez (check out Heilman's second half stats from last year), and you can see why Willie would choose to go with Heilman as his closer.

Even if you look at their career stats, it says that Heilman has the potential to be a better closer. He has a higher k/9 and lower bb/9 and similar hr/9. They have each pitched close to 200 innings. Case closed.


You either haven't watched any Met games this year or you have Heilman on all 10 of your fantasy teams.

1. Sanchez went 8 for 8 in save chances last year for the Dodgers when Gagne went down.
2. As someone previously mentioned Heilman started games in winter ball this past year. He'd be more likely to pitch 2+ innings as opposed to Sanchez.
3. Sanchez enters the game with an attitude, unlike Heilman.

People who believe Heilman would become the closer if something happend to Wagner are not paying attention.
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Postby garf112 » Fri May 12, 2006 2:40 pm

The Kavorka wrote:
garf112 wrote:When Statistics Lie....

Keep in mind that this season has been a small sample size.
Heilman has a better k/9, same bb/9, same hr/9
ERA and WHIP are higher... therein lies the lie. Heilman has been a bit more unlucky than Sanchez so far. They have pretty much been the same pitcher.

Then take into account that Heilman has been doing this for at least half a year longer than Sanchez (check out Heilman's second half stats from last year), and you can see why Willie would choose to go with Heilman as his closer.

Even if you look at their career stats, it says that Heilman has the potential to be a better closer. He has a higher k/9 and lower bb/9 and similar hr/9. They have each pitched close to 200 innings. Case closed.


You either haven't watched any Met games this year or you have Heilman on all 10 of your fantasy teams.

1. Sanchez went 8 for 8 in save chances last year for the Dodgers when Gagne went down.
2. As someone previously mentioned Heilman started games in winter ball this past year. He'd be more likely to pitch 2+ innings as opposed to Sanchez.
3. Sanchez enters the game with an attitude, unlike Heilman.

People who believe Heilman would become the closer if something happend to Wagner are not paying attention.


I have watched EVERY Mets' game this year, and I do not own Heilman or Sanchez on ANY of my fantasy teams.

1. Heilman went 5 for 5 in save chances last year for the Mets when BLooper went down.
2. Willie has said that he likes to have Sanchez go 2 innings.
3. I don't even know what that means. Because Heilman is more even keeled he wouldn't make a better closer? Interesting thought process.

I also watched Heilman last year almost every time out for the Mets. I saw Sanchez pitch last year for the Dodgers and in years past. I see them as similar pitchers with Heilman rating a little bit above as far as being effective in a closer role. I stand by my opinion that Heilman is the closer if Wagner goes down. (which isn't going to happen anyway, so it renders this argument moot.)

And to the other poster... 200 innings is 200 innings. It's still the same amount of experience. A little different experience, but I know for a fact that Dirty Sanchez has not been pitching pressure 8th innings for more than a year or so, which means they both have the SAME experience in those situations. Just because Dirty pitched a bunch of mop up innings in relief, while Heilman was a starting pitcher, doesn't mean Dirty has more setup experience.

j24jags-> The reason I won't look at ERA, WHIP and opponents batting average is because they are not the best indicator of a pitcher's future success. The three that I mentioned are, in conjunction with groundball/flyball ratio.
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Postby AT » Fri May 12, 2006 5:01 pm

garf112 wrote:
The Kavorka wrote:
garf112 wrote:When Statistics Lie....

Keep in mind that this season has been a small sample size.
Heilman has a better k/9, same bb/9, same hr/9
ERA and WHIP are higher... therein lies the lie. Heilman has been a bit more unlucky than Sanchez so far. They have pretty much been the same pitcher.

Then take into account that Heilman has been doing this for at least half a year longer than Sanchez (check out Heilman's second half stats from last year), and you can see why Willie would choose to go with Heilman as his closer.

Even if you look at their career stats, it says that Heilman has the potential to be a better closer. He has a higher k/9 and lower bb/9 and similar hr/9. They have each pitched close to 200 innings. Case closed.


You either haven't watched any Met games this year or you have Heilman on all 10 of your fantasy teams.

1. Sanchez went 8 for 8 in save chances last year for the Dodgers when Gagne went down.
2. As someone previously mentioned Heilman started games in winter ball this past year. He'd be more likely to pitch 2+ innings as opposed to Sanchez.
3. Sanchez enters the game with an attitude, unlike Heilman.

People who believe Heilman would become the closer if something happend to Wagner are not paying attention.


I have watched EVERY Mets' game this year, and I do not own Heilman or Sanchez on ANY of my fantasy teams.

1. Heilman went 5 for 5 in save chances last year for the Mets when BLooper went down.
2. Willie has said that he likes to have Sanchez go 2 innings.
3. I don't even know what that means. Because Heilman is more even keeled he wouldn't make a better closer? Interesting thought process.

I also watched Heilman last year almost every time out for the Mets. I saw Sanchez pitch last year for the Dodgers and in years past. I see them as similar pitchers with Heilman rating a little bit above as far as being effective in a closer role. I stand by my opinion that Heilman is the closer if Wagner goes down. (which isn't going to happen anyway, so it renders this argument moot.)

And to the other poster... 200 innings is 200 innings. It's still the same amount of experience. A little different experience, but I know for a fact that Dirty Sanchez has not been pitching pressure 8th innings for more than a year or so, which means they both have the SAME experience in those situations. Just because Dirty pitched a bunch of mop up innings in relief, while Heilman was a starting pitcher, doesn't mean Dirty has more setup experience.

j24jags-> The reason I won't look at ERA, WHIP and opponents batting average is because they are not the best indicator of a pitcher's future success. The three that I mentioned are, in conjunction with groundball/flyball ratio.


Garf you know I love you, but if you agree with the above bolded lines and think Willie would go to Heilman to close before Sanchez you're missing something. It's not even about stats or their history, blah blah blah, I've heard Willie in interviews and I listen to him talk about these guys every single week and he's going to Sanchez 100% before Heilman to close. No question about it. Show all the stats you want, all the pedigree, blah blah blah, Willie's going to Sanchez.
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