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Can Pujols pass Bonds Single Season Record???

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Postby Ender » Thu May 11, 2006 10:13 am

TBallgame wrote:He may not pass Bonds Single Season Record, but he has a good chance of breaking the REAL record of 61 set by Roger Maris


I was going to say the same thing. I'd love to see him break Maris' record so we could have someone do it without an * after their name.
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Postby Yoda » Thu May 11, 2006 10:21 am

Ender wrote:
TBallgame wrote:He may not pass Bonds Single Season Record, but he has a good chance of breaking the REAL record of 61 set by Roger Maris


I was going to say the same thing. I'd love to see him break Maris' record so we could have someone do it without an * after their name.


Well since Maris has the *, Bonds probably has **.
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Postby Joe Mauer » Thu May 11, 2006 10:58 am

Yoda wrote:
Ender wrote:
TBallgame wrote:He may not pass Bonds Single Season Record, but he has a good chance of breaking the REAL record of 61 set by Roger Maris


I was going to say the same thing. I'd love to see him break Maris' record so we could have someone do it without an * after their name.


Well since Maris has the *, Bonds probably has **.


Put that ** by McGwire as well. Greenies count.

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Postby Krunk City King$ » Thu May 11, 2006 11:06 am

he needs some healthier protection.......

:-°
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Postby acsguitar » Thu May 11, 2006 11:15 am

I'd love to see him do it and then go over to Bonds house and beat him down
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu May 11, 2006 11:34 am

Krunk City King$ wrote:he needs some healthier protection.......

:-°


Agree but if Rolen and Edmonds get healthy and start hitting to their abilities then pitchers simply will not be able to put Pujols on base. They'll be careful of course but they'll have to pitch to him.

That said if you take his career hr/ab percentage (6.80%) and project it over the rest of the year given his lower number of projected at bats (since he's walking more) you get a whopping 48 home runs. :( He's been knocking home runs out at over a 15% hr/ab clip. I just can't see him keeping that up.

However...if Rolen and Edmonds REALLY start raking to the point that pitchers are actually afraid to walk Pujols then that could change a bit. He averaged 3.74 ab/game over his career but only has 3.39 ab/game this year. If he somehow returned to his career average in that statistic...or better yet let's just say the 3.67 ab/game from last year...that would give him an extra 35 at bats for an extra couple home runs to give him an even 50.

Honestly the record (whether it be 61 that you consider to be the record or 73) just requires you to play out of your mind for an extended period of time. I mean, Bonds couldn't even touch 50 in the 3 years after the record despite putting up a ridiculous 11.7% hr/ab ratio (as well as bettering Pujols's career number by putting up 8.7% in the 3 years prior to 73). It took 'the perfect storm' of pitchers not yet walking Bonds at every single opportunity (he actually got 476 at bats which is quite a few for Barry compared to the next 3 years) as well as an astronomical 15.3% hr/ab ratio.

So can Pujols do it? I really don't think so. I'd say he probably doesn't break 50 and that's if he's able to stay in the starting lineup. Given his constant issues with his foot as well as a balky back this year even that's in doubt. Is he currently on pace to do it? Heck yeah...I wrote an article about what he would do over an entire season at his current pace in a luck neutral environment (which doesn't effect his hr totals...the article focused more on how bad luck has depressed his average this year) and he projects out to 81 home runs. That was before he went 2/4 with another home run yesterday.

Would I like to see him do it? Seeing as how I own him in exactly HALF of my eight leagues I would LOVE to see him do it. Not to mention that he's a great guy, very accessible to the fans and a community icon...he's a guy that it's very easy to like. I've got him in my only keeper league as well. I'm a HUGE Pujols fan. I just don't see it as possible and would actually be surprised if he breaks 50.

By the way the projections article is in my sig right now for anyone that would like to read it.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Thu May 11, 2006 11:41 am

The Loveable Losers wrote:Seeing as how I own him in exactly HALF of my eight leagues


How DOES one get Big Al in half of one's leagues? :-?
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Postby markj11 » Thu May 11, 2006 11:47 am

Joe Mauer wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Ender wrote:
TBallgame wrote:He may not pass Bonds Single Season Record, but he has a good chance of breaking the REAL record of 61 set by Roger Maris


I was going to say the same thing. I'd love to see him break Maris' record so we could have someone do it without an * after their name.


Well since Maris has the *, Bonds probably has **.


Put that ** by McGwire as well. Greenies count.

It would be great if MLB celebrated when/if he passes 61.
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Postby theclefe » Thu May 11, 2006 11:54 am

AcidRock23 wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:Seeing as how I own him in exactly HALF of my eight leagues


How DOES one get Big Al in half of one's leagues? :-?


By being the commishs and setting the orders...
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu May 11, 2006 12:19 pm

AcidRock23 wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:Seeing as how I own him in exactly HALF of my eight leagues


How DOES one get Big Al in half of one's leagues? :-?


I'm in 8 leagues. One of them is a keeper and Pujols is one of my 6 keepers. I drew the second pick in 2 of my 7 leagues and the first pick in 1 of my 7 leagues. Pujols dropped to me at #2 both times I had the second pick and I took him #1 in the league where I had the first pick.
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