i noticed going into the season, almost everyone was down on MCab. Don't draft him, he's got nobody behind him...so on and so forth. My question is, why are so many people so sure that Bay is going to pick it up. He has nobody behind him, Pittsburg maybe just as bad as Florida. MCab has better numbers than Bay thus far this season. Yet everyone is calling Bay a buy low player...why is that? I know he's got serious skills but won't he be walked just as much as MCab. I suppose he may steal some bases which is a definate + so i'm guessing it's the sb prospect that makes him a guy to have.
I was just curious...i am a Bay owner and i'm trying to find reason to not deal him away.
I like M-Cab over Bay. M-Cab has proven himself to be one of the games best hitters. Neither have good protection, but i lean towards the Marlins in terms of the better lineup. I have a feeling Bay wont live up to the hype this year.
the reason why bay was liked more than mcab, at least by me since i can't speak for others, was due to:
1. bay had a horrible lineup around him last year as well, but produced. i had no idea what mcab would do with a horrible line up around him.
2. walking isn't just completely dictated by the pitcher. a hitter knows how to walk as well. bay knows. mcab, before this year, seemed like a freeswinger (which is usually a bad thing, unless you can sustain a .330 avg or something with .500+ slugging% like vlad, and admittedly mcab). so basically, since mcab is a freeswinger, if pitchers give him only bad pitches to hit, will he get frustrated/impatient and swing at them? that would lower his avg, increase his Ks, and result in overall worse #s than last year. however, he has adjusted, and is on pace to walk like 80 or 100 or something (too lazy to check), which would be more than he's ever walked before by almost x2. if all this walking is due to a conscious adjustment made by mcab, and not just a fluke, then i think mcab will be fine.
3. i thought the lineup around mcab would be much worse than this. hanley ramirez, and especially willingham, have surprised me this year. they don't look all that bad at all, certainly better than the pirates. but my point is that before the season started, i thought the florida lineup would be just as bad as the pirates', and thus had mcab ranked low.
as for your question of why are people saying bay is a buy low player, he's had .900+ ops EVERY SINGLE YEAR he's been in the majors. that's insane. he knows how to hit, walk, and mash. don't worry about his hitting. the only question is whether he'll steal bases or not. that's up to you to decide. personally, i think if the lineup around him doesn't produce, he'll start creating his own runs by stealing more. if the lineup around him produces, he'll be good for 100+ runs and 100+ rbis. and in your specific situation, since you're the bay owner and not trying to buy bay low, there's no reaosn for you to trade him now since you won't get full value. if someone's offering mcab or hafner, then sure go for it. but i'm guessing the kind of offers you'd be getting for bay now would be a hideki matsui or so.
I think Cabrera is a sure-fire first-rounder for many years to come. The weaker lineup will me it will be harder to top 100 RBI and/or 100 runs, but he'll be close, and that will come with .320ish average and 30-plus homers.
I see Bay not quite matching last year's totals. He'll come close on the homers, but I don't know why so many people were thinking he would flirt with 30 steals. He may drop a round or two next year.
Two kinds of hype on these guys, one pushing up his draft value (Bay) and one pushing down the other (MCab).
"All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated and well supported in logic and argument than others." — Douglas Adams (1952-2001)
Another Blown Save wrote:The reason why people weren't as worried about Bay was because Bay was able to produce in '05 without a good lineup behind him.
In case of Cabrera, he always had a good lineup behind him through his career, so people were worried how he'll handle the change.
But I guess managers are finally figuring out that they don't need to pitch to Bay.
Cabrera didn't always have a good lineup. 05 Marlins were not very good. Cabrera is far more talented than Bay it's not even funny. What was Bay doing when he was 23? Not being one of the best hitters in baseball that is for sure.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Bay's in his prime years.... Mcab has 4 or 5 years till he's supposed to get good. Put MCab in a hitter park with a decent lineup around him and he'll be a mini-Pujols.
No chance. He isn't arbitration eligible for a couple of more years, and he's making next to nothing. A superstar making relatively nothing will never be traded....
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by dracovonborax » Sat May 06, 2006 6:16 pm 
