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Luckiest & Unluckiest Hitters This Year ...

Postby d18Mike » Fri May 05, 2006 12:50 pm

There is a Justin Morneau thread going where I refer to an analysis that suggests that he has been an unlucky hitter this year and could just as easily be hitting .300.

Here's a look at a broader list of luckiest and unluckiest hitters to date from ProTrade. You can agree or disagree with the methodology, but I'll take it as another useful data point -- I need all the help I can get.

Yes Brad Asumus is the luckiest ... and Bonds ranks among the unluckiest to date.

Fair Warning: Manny fans may not want to open this link.

http://www.protrade.com/insight/Insight ... 729921&x=x
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Postby acsguitar » Fri May 05, 2006 12:57 pm

Pujols is unlucky..holy crud
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Postby Yoda » Fri May 05, 2006 1:01 pm

I think the key player on that list is Bonds. When he heats up, he's gonna be a monster.
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Postby Cooner » Fri May 05, 2006 1:49 pm

agreed with Yoda.

But this is the one that scares me...

9 Albert Pujols (STL) .329 .416

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Postby mak1277 » Fri May 05, 2006 1:53 pm

Please tell me they have some kind of explanation for that analysis that just didn't make it into the article?

How exactly do they calculate their figures? Waaaay too many questions for me to take that on faith.
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Postby d18Mike » Fri May 05, 2006 2:21 pm

Sure. I'd like to see the methodology in more depth -- but the fact that it aligns with common sense (Ausmus/Bonds etc...) in many cases leads me to believe that thery may at least be in the ballpark

I don't think anyone can proimise a waterproof analysis of this type; there is alway some subjectivity (and the sample size is still pretty small) but I think it's at least an interesting data point.

Very little I've seen (except DIPs) that attempts to quantify "luck." This is at least an interesting stab at it.
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Postby garf112 » Fri May 05, 2006 3:12 pm

I'm pretty sure they did explain the methodology.

And because here at PROTRADE we've mapped every one of them, charting every batted ball in the majors over the past four years, calculating the probability that given their direction and distance, they become hits, I can quantify and confirm what Uribe is feeling.


I have Uribe on my team, and just using a simple equation... subtract XBH and SO from AB, multiply by .3 add the XBH back in and voila... you have a close approximation of what SHOULD be a player's batting average. I realized that he should be hitting around .270. I think my projections for him .270 with 20 home runs still hold true. The only one I would disagree with is Willy Taveras, who, because of his speed (ability to beat out routine ground balls) is an outlier in any data set.
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Postby Splendid61 » Fri May 05, 2006 3:36 pm

Prince Fielder (MIL) actual batting average: .343 adjusted batting average: .236


might be an indication to sell high on Fielder.



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Postby Ender » Fri May 05, 2006 3:39 pm

The obvious question is my mind is are they taking into account where the fielders are standing? They map where the balls are hit but are they mapping where all of the fielders were standing as well? I know in fielders case they were shifting him to pull and he poked the ball into the holes that were left by the SS shift so if they were simply ignoring the fielders those would count as 'supposed outs'.
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Postby giants! » Fri May 05, 2006 4:39 pm

There are some problems with the study that i can think of.

Feet in park- In Petco Park the left center field wall is 350 feet out. In Fenway it is about 315 feet out. A fly ball of 330 feet would be a home ryn in Fenway but would be a routine flyout in Petco. Consequently, it would skew the averages that a Fenway player would get a hit but a Petco player wouldnt.

Type of Hit- Picture a line drive of about 150 feet over the third basemens head. This ball will almost always surely be a hit. However, a fly ball of the exact same 150 feet will almost always be a flyout. This would also skew the averages.

There are a few more but Ill leave those 2 out there for now
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