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Postby The Loveable Losers » Sat May 06, 2006 12:39 pm

A sharp increase in production usually follows with a sharp decrease in production. Gomes is going to have a month where he probably hits 2 or 3 HR (I'm not sure if you read my sell high on jonny gomes thread) so while he does not "use up" his projected HR total, it falls back into the range where he was supposed to.


I agree with everything you said there except for the number of home runs. A sharp increase in production is usually followed by a regression to the player's mean. In Gomes case we projected 5 hr per month so he should regress to that 5 hr per month. Again, just because a guy is 'hot' doesn't mean he's going to be cold after that hot streak. He's more likely to regress to the mean indicated by his skill set.
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Postby cordscords » Sat May 06, 2006 1:34 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:
A sharp increase in production usually follows with a sharp decrease in production. Gomes is going to have a month where he probably hits 2 or 3 HR (I'm not sure if you read my sell high on jonny gomes thread) so while he does not "use up" his projected HR total, it falls back into the range where he was supposed to.


I agree with everything you said there except for the number of home runs. A sharp increase in production is usually followed by a regression to the player's mean. In Gomes case we projected 5 hr per month so he should regress to that 5 hr per month. Again, just because a guy is 'hot' doesn't mean he's going to be cold after that hot streak. He's more likely to regress to the mean indicated by his skill set.


I don't mean to reference my own thread again, but I had an example of 2 star players who hit 30 HR in their first full season (Cabrera and Bay). They both had power outage months of 2 and 3. So while the final #'s averaged out to 5/6 HR a month, they had 1 awesome month and 1 poor month. His lack of experience will come back to hurt him at some point this season.

And Gomes doesnt even have enough AB yet at the ML level to set a mark where we can expect him to regress to. I had Gomes right around 30 at the start of the year myself so I do think 5 is a respectable amount to assume, but the point is we don't know. Could he just be a flash in the pan?
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Sat May 06, 2006 2:08 pm

cordscords wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:
A sharp increase in production usually follows with a sharp decrease in production. Gomes is going to have a month where he probably hits 2 or 3 HR (I'm not sure if you read my sell high on jonny gomes thread) so while he does not "use up" his projected HR total, it falls back into the range where he was supposed to.


I agree with everything you said there except for the number of home runs. A sharp increase in production is usually followed by a regression to the player's mean. In Gomes case we projected 5 hr per month so he should regress to that 5 hr per month. Again, just because a guy is 'hot' doesn't mean he's going to be cold after that hot streak. He's more likely to regress to the mean indicated by his skill set.


I don't mean to reference my own thread again, but I had an example of 2 star players who hit 30 HR in their first full season (Cabrera and Bay). They both had power outage months of 2 and 3. So while the final #'s averaged out to 5/6 HR a month, they had 1 awesome month and 1 poor month. His lack of experience will come back to hurt him at some point this season.

And Gomes doesnt even have enough AB yet at the ML level to set a mark where we can expect him to regress to. I had Gomes right around 30 at the start of the year myself so I do think 5 is a respectable amount to assume, but the point is we don't know. Could he just be a flash in the pan?


First of all home run totals obviously will fluctuate. Any time you're talking about an expected total of 5 even hitting 4 or hitting 6 is a big swing. We're talking about small data sets here. But if you predicted 5 hr per month (or more importantly you predicted about 1 hr every 18 at bats or so) then there is no reason to expect the player not to hit 1 hr every 18 at bats or so.

As to whether he could be a flash in the pan...sure that's entirely possible. That said in the absence of new information you have to stick with your preseason projections. Most people projected him with somewhere between .265 and .285 average with 30 hr power and barring evidence to the contrary that's what I would continue to expect out of him. Again, guys will have slight variation from that performance...they may even go into a prolonged slump. It's possible. But Gomes deviating in a negative direction in May from his projections is just as likely as deviating for a second time in a positive direction.
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Postby cordscords » Sat May 06, 2006 2:15 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:
cordscords wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:
A sharp increase in production usually follows with a sharp decrease in production. Gomes is going to have a month where he probably hits 2 or 3 HR (I'm not sure if you read my sell high on jonny gomes thread) so while he does not "use up" his projected HR total, it falls back into the range where he was supposed to.


I agree with everything you said there except for the number of home runs. A sharp increase in production is usually followed by a regression to the player's mean. In Gomes case we projected 5 hr per month so he should regress to that 5 hr per month. Again, just because a guy is 'hot' doesn't mean he's going to be cold after that hot streak. He's more likely to regress to the mean indicated by his skill set.


I don't mean to reference my own thread again, but I had an example of 2 star players who hit 30 HR in their first full season (Cabrera and Bay). They both had power outage months of 2 and 3. So while the final #'s averaged out to 5/6 HR a month, they had 1 awesome month and 1 poor month. His lack of experience will come back to hurt him at some point this season.

And Gomes doesnt even have enough AB yet at the ML level to set a mark where we can expect him to regress to. I had Gomes right around 30 at the start of the year myself so I do think 5 is a respectable amount to assume, but the point is we don't know. Could he just be a flash in the pan?


First of all home run totals obviously will fluctuate. Any time you're talking about an expected total of 5 even hitting 4 or hitting 6 is a big swing. We're talking about small data sets here. But if you predicted 5 hr per month (or more importantly you predicted about 1 hr every 18 at bats or so) then there is no reason to expect the player not to hit 1 hr every 18 at bats or so.

As to whether he could be a flash in the pan...sure that's entirely possible. That said in the absence of new information you have to stick with your preseason projections. Most people projected him with somewhere between .265 and .285 average with 30 hr power and barring evidence to the contrary that's what I would continue to expect out of him. Again, guys will have slight variation from that performance...they may even go into a prolonged slump. It's possible. But Gomes deviating in a negative direction in May from his projections is just as likely as deviating for a second time in a positive direction.


If that's the case his production is up in June, down in July, up in August, down in September. That's silly.

If a guy is playing ball for 10 years is a career .300 hitter and hits .250 in the first half, you shouldnt expect him to hit .350 in the second half to reach .300. You should expect him to hit .300 in the second half and finish with a .275 average.

The difference is this guy has done it for 10 years, Gomes for a few months. A learning curve is going to hit him hard at some point.

In fact can you find me 1 player in the last 5 years who is considered a good power hitter as of right now, and didnt have 1 power outage month in his first full season?
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Sat May 06, 2006 2:31 pm

The difference is this guy has done it for 10 years, Gomes for a few months. A learning curve is going to hit him hard at some point.


I'll go with you that a less established player may be more prone to slumps. I don't know if there's any hard data to back that up but it at least makes sense intuitively. So that in itself might open Gomes up to an off month more than others. But his big start does not hurt his chances of doing well the rest of the way any more than a guy hitting .350 over the first part of the year makes him hit .250 the rest of the way (if you projected him as a .300 hitter). So I'll grant you that Gomes has a larger chance of a slump than say Berkman has. By the same token he's younger and more likely to stay healthy so that counterbalances his youth somewhat.

In fact can you find me 1 player in the last 5 years who is considered a good power hitter as of right now, and didnt have 1 power outage month in his first full season?


If you only count full months (October he hit no home runs but he only had 25 at bats) Albert Pujols in 2001 would meet that criteria.
April 8
May 8
June 5
July 4
August 6
September 6

I guess he scuffled a bit at the plate in July (his average was down and k's were up) but those 4 hr's came in only 87 at bats so he wasn't too far off the pace he held through August/September. I view this more as statistical fluctuation than a guy having a learning curve catch up with him. To back this up a more established Pujols only hit 2 home runs through the entire month of September in 2002 while hitting .348. It's just fluctuations of a small sample size - nothing more, nothing less.
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Postby cordscords » Sat May 06, 2006 2:49 pm

I don't remember where I saw it, or what #'s there were directly, but some study was done that for a large part of the time a ball player in his first full year struggles big time at some point during the season.

And of course the guy that had to go and do it was Pujols, lol.

But would you place Gomes anywhere near the same class as Pujols? When it comes to power, sure, but with the way Gomes strikes out it makes him much more likely to fail.

And yes I am aware that it is perfectly capable to hit for a low average and good power in 1 month and over the course of a season (Dunn!) But even in his first full season he had a month where he only hit 1 HR.

So can Gomes hit 5 HR in every month? Easilly. Will he? According to his statistics, and history, IMO he will not.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Sat May 06, 2006 3:00 pm

cordscords wrote:I don't remember where I saw it, or what #'s there were directly, but some study was done that for a large part of the time a ball player in his first full year struggles big time at some point during the season.

And of course the guy that had to go and do it was Pujols, lol.

But would you place Gomes anywhere near the same class as Pujols? When it comes to power, sure, but with the way Gomes strikes out it makes him much more likely to fail.

And yes I am aware that it is perfectly capable to hit for a low average and good power in 1 month and over the course of a season (Dunn!) But even in his first full season he had a month where he only hit 1 HR.

So can Gomes hit 5 HR in every month? Easilly. Will he? According to his statistics, and history, IMO he will not.


A high strikeout rate doesn't really mean a thing as far as home runs go as long as it's coupled with a good k/bb ratio. Gomes has made tremendous strides here with a 38k/25bb ratio this year (last year was nowhere near that good). That's why Dunn succeeds with his low average as well - he's an all or nothing hitter but unlike Francoeur he won't swing at slop. Gomes has shown the same tendencies as Dunn (tons of k's, great obp, good power) so I think you're on the right track with the Dunn comparison. Honestly I'd expect Gomes to be a very similar hitter to Dunn. He probably has a little less power, will probably hit for a similar average (meaning that the people predicting .285 may be overshooting a bit) and will put up an outstanding obp due to his selectiveness at the plate.

I think you can expect 5 hr's per month as the most likely number from Gomes with a decent chance at either 4 or 6, a small chance at 3 or 7 and an extremely small chance of anything under 3 or over 7.
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Postby cordscords » Sat May 06, 2006 4:19 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:
cordscords wrote:I don't remember where I saw it, or what #'s there were directly, but some study was done that for a large part of the time a ball player in his first full year struggles big time at some point during the season.

And of course the guy that had to go and do it was Pujols, lol.

But would you place Gomes anywhere near the same class as Pujols? When it comes to power, sure, but with the way Gomes strikes out it makes him much more likely to fail.

And yes I am aware that it is perfectly capable to hit for a low average and good power in 1 month and over the course of a season (Dunn!) But even in his first full season he had a month where he only hit 1 HR.

So can Gomes hit 5 HR in every month? Easilly. Will he? According to his statistics, and history, IMO he will not.


A high strikeout rate doesn't really mean a thing as far as home runs go as long as it's coupled with a good k/bb ratio. Gomes has made tremendous strides here with a 38k/25bb ratio this year (last year was nowhere near that good). That's why Dunn succeeds with his low average as well - he's an all or nothing hitter but unlike Francoeur he won't swing at slop. Gomes has shown the same tendencies as Dunn (tons of k's, great obp, good power) so I think you're on the right track with the Dunn comparison. Honestly I'd expect Gomes to be a very similar hitter to Dunn. He probably has a little less power, will probably hit for a similar average (meaning that the people predicting .285 may be overshooting a bit) and will put up an outstanding obp due to his selectiveness at the plate.

I think you can expect 5 hr's per month as the most likely number from Gomes with a decent chance at either 4 or 6, a small chance at 3 or 7 and an extremely small chance of anything under 3 or over 7.


Well obviously if you hit a HR you need to make contact. Gomes is averaging over a strikeout a game this year and last year, so he's going to cost himself at least 162 AB this year to hit a HR. But if he was able to cut down on his K's, that would lead to more contact. The more contact you make, the better a chance of a HR.

And I am aware that you can still hit for a good average if you whiff a ton. Jose Hernandez and Jim Thome have done it in recent years. Thome had proven in a few seasons that he could hit for a high average, while Hernandez didnt. What Hernandez did have on his side was experience. I'm not sure how much luck was involved in his 2002 season, but by then I'm perfectly sure he knew what kind of a hitter he was and what the league would treat him like. He did return back to his normal terrible self after that year, but he does seem like the kind of player that would get better with experience.

BTW- I'm not sure if that last paragraph made a ton of sense. It sounded a lot better in my head then it does typed up. You can kind of piece it all together.
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