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Beckett is really starting to worry me....

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Postby Ender » Thu May 04, 2006 6:04 pm

hoya1982 wrote:I think the multiple for ERA is right, but I don't think the multiple for WHIP works like that. I saw some column about this, and while the ERA changed a lot, the WHIP didn't. I don't know why, I think it may have something to do with more intentional walks in the NL.


You pitch around hitters in the NL a lot more giving up unintentional intentional walks. I still think you generally see a .05-.10 whip change and a .30 to .80 ERA change depending on the pitcher and the parks etc.
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Postby NZF » Thu May 04, 2006 7:03 pm

Beckett is immature and until he grows up he'll never be a stud SP.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Thu May 04, 2006 7:07 pm

The warning signs were all there. Many people feared his move to the AL-East and out of Florida even if he managed to avoid injuries (which he never does). I still think a high 3 or low 4 ERA is likely.
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Postby quitesanemax » Fri May 05, 2006 8:37 am

TheYanks04 wrote:The warning signs were all there. Many people feared his move to the AL-East and out of Florida even if he managed to avoid injuries (which he never does). I still think a high 3 or low 4 ERA is likely.



... and if Boston's offense gets going that should be sufficient. I think he is a little too emotional... I'm not sure about too immature. He is a bit like Zambrano is... which means he is going to be streaky. As a Red Sox fan, I'm not ready to give up on him just yet.
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Postby Laean » Fri May 05, 2006 12:11 pm

pitcher's park in NL to hitter's park in AL ... East? people should've seen it coming.
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Postby BritSox » Fri May 05, 2006 1:58 pm

josebach wrote:
Matthias wrote:Because he's not a bust.

He blew up in the last three games: two of them against Toronto, one of the highest-scoring teams in the majors and Cleveland who is dangerous top-to-bottom.

You have to be who you start him against: some tough matchups in the AL East and some short ballparks. But he's not a bust.


He has a career 3.54 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 8.78K/9IP. All of which (with the exception of these last 6 starts) have been in the National League. In order to compensate for the DH, I usually add 10% when a pitcher switches to the American League for the first time. Add to that the fact that he's moving to the AL East and I would guess another 5% jump or so.

3.54 * 1.15 = 4.07 ERA
1.24 * 1.15 = 1.42 WHIP
8.78/1.15 = 7.63 k per 9 IP

The drop off might be a tad high, but overall I think those numbers are a pretty good estimate of what he'll do in Boston. I wouldn't be too worried if I were you unless you expected him to put up numbers similar to what he put up in Florida. On the plus side, pitching for Boston should hopefully get him another couple wins or so.


I'd agree that the WHIP seems outta whack there, don't think he manages those other numbers if he's letting that many guys on base. That said, 4.07 ERA in the East would be a decent effort.
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Postby Doughhead » Sat May 06, 2006 3:32 pm

I don't feel like any of this sufficiently explains why the Ks have vanished. (Unless he was striking out the pitcher every time back in his NL days). :-?
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Postby Matthias » Sat May 06, 2006 3:43 pm

He's a power pitcher. Power pitchers improve as the weather warms. They should come as the season goes on.
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Postby johnsamo » Sat May 06, 2006 5:08 pm

Chill Dudes.... He'll get better when it warms up, Zambrano and King Felix too are I think having cold weather issues right now. The Ks will never be what they were with the Marlins because he can't blow away pitchers, plus, he could take chances with the Marlin's big outfield. In Fenway, he's got to become a more groundball pitcher (which he's doing) to succeed... The big blowout was the Cleveland game... cold weather plus a team that can just mash, bad combination. I'd sit him in the Cleveland and NY matchups, everybody else, he's always in my rotation... When he's on though, he can blow those guys away too.
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