Beckett is really starting to worry me.... - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Beckett is really starting to worry me....

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Beckett is really starting to worry me....

Postby Doughhead » Thu May 04, 2006 8:12 am

You know that feeling when you just lose faith in one of your guys? That's happening to me with Beckett. Perhaps I was foolish to expect a solid year from him, but I feel nervous whenever he is on the mound that things could blow up at any moment--even when he started the year with 3 straight wins, he wasn't as dominant as his numbers suggested. Now, the balls are falling, the walks continue, the Ks aren't there....

I remember watching this guy in the post-season three years ago. He was so in-control, so nasty, so mentally tough. What happened? He's three years older; should be more mature; should be getting better. I'm worried.

I know this post will inspire a series of "I-told-you-so" comments and "Blister Boy" references. But anybody who watched the 2003 NLCS and World Series knows that this guy should have the talent and make-up to do big things. I just don't understand how he could turn in to a bust.
DOUGHHEAD
Doughhead
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 4368
Joined: 6 Nov 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Matthias » Thu May 04, 2006 9:57 am

Because he's not a bust.

He blew up in the last three games: two of them against Toronto, one of the highest-scoring teams in the majors and Cleveland who is dangerous top-to-bottom.

You have to be who you start him against: some tough matchups in the AL East and some short ballparks. But he's not a bust.
Matthias
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 4860
Joined: 16 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby josebach » Thu May 04, 2006 10:41 am

Matthias wrote:Because he's not a bust.

He blew up in the last three games: two of them against Toronto, one of the highest-scoring teams in the majors and Cleveland who is dangerous top-to-bottom.

You have to be who you start him against: some tough matchups in the AL East and some short ballparks. But he's not a bust.


He has a career 3.54 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 8.78K/9IP. All of which (with the exception of these last 6 starts) have been in the National League. In order to compensate for the DH, I usually add 10% when a pitcher switches to the American League for the first time. Add to that the fact that he's moving to the AL East and I would guess another 5% jump or so.

3.54 * 1.15 = 4.07 ERA
1.24 * 1.15 = 1.42 WHIP
8.78/1.15 = 7.63 k per 9 IP

The drop off might be a tad high, but overall I think those numbers are a pretty good estimate of what he'll do in Boston. I wouldn't be too worried if I were you unless you expected him to put up numbers similar to what he put up in Florida. On the plus side, pitching for Boston should hopefully get him another couple wins or so.
josebach
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2036
Joined: 27 Aug 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Tallahassee

Postby Matthias » Thu May 04, 2006 10:49 am

Not bad multiples. From what I've seen the standard NL->AL adjustment is +0.7 ERA (and -0.7 the other way). But overall agree: he's going to do about what he's done. If you were expecting a 2.4 ERA and 0.8 WHIP you'll be disappointed, but you shouldn't have had those as projections in the first place.
Matthias
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 4860
Joined: 16 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Beckett is really starting to worry me....

Postby quitesanemax » Thu May 04, 2006 12:02 pm

Doughhead wrote:But anybody who watched the 2003 NLCS and World Series knows that this guy should have the talent and make-up to do big things.


What, all 5 of them... lol.

Relax. I agree that his numbers aren't going to be as good as with Florida because he is in the AL East, but he will do okay for you.
quitesanemax
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2084
Joined: 8 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Boston, MA.

Re: Beckett is really starting to worry me....

Postby Doughhead » Thu May 04, 2006 1:00 pm

quitesanemax wrote:
Doughhead wrote:But anybody who watched the 2003 NLCS and World Series knows that this guy should have the talent and make-up to do big things.


What, all 5 of them... lol.

Relax. I agree that his numbers aren't going to be as good as with Florida because he is in the AL East, but he will do okay for you.


I don't buy this. How come Schilling performed up to his usual standards in his first year in Boston? If a guy is talented enough, then he should be able to overcome challenges like this. I always thought Beckett was that talented. But maybe I'm the last sucker to get off this bandwagon.
DOUGHHEAD
Doughhead
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 4368
Joined: 6 Nov 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Beckett is really starting to worry me....

Postby quitesanemax » Thu May 04, 2006 1:14 pm

Doughhead wrote:
quitesanemax wrote:
Doughhead wrote:But anybody who watched the 2003 NLCS and World Series knows that this guy should have the talent and make-up to do big things.


What, all 5 of them... lol.

Relax. I agree that his numbers aren't going to be as good as with Florida because he is in the AL East, but he will do okay for you.


I don't buy this. How come Schilling performed up to his usual standards in his first year in Boston? If a guy is talented enough, then he should be able to overcome challenges like this. I always thought Beckett was that talented. But maybe I'm the last sucker to get off this bandwagon.


Schilling had his moments in 04. It wasn't all a smooth ride. Nope. Here's one more sucker. I guess I should feel fortunate that I was unable to get him on my team. lol. Come to think of it, now is a time to try and buy him for cheap. But a week or so ago, just after he blew up against Cleveland, I offered Maddux for him. The guy told me that Maddux was a joke, and Beckett was 10 times better. Of course, he is from Florida. Maybe he is a Beckett fan. I wonder if he is ready to give up on him too...
quitesanemax
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2084
Joined: 8 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Boston, MA.

Re: Beckett is really starting to worry me....

Postby Matthias » Thu May 04, 2006 1:34 pm

Doughhead wrote:
quitesanemax wrote:
Doughhead wrote:But anybody who watched the 2003 NLCS and World Series knows that this guy should have the talent and make-up to do big things.


What, all 5 of them... lol.

Relax. I agree that his numbers aren't going to be as good as with Florida because he is in the AL East, but he will do okay for you.


I don't buy this. How come Schilling performed up to his usual standards in his first year in Boston? If a guy is talented enough, then he should be able to overcome challenges like this. I always thought Beckett was that talented. But maybe I'm the last sucker to get off this bandwagon.


Man, you can buy it or not buy it. But it's true. I'm tellin', not sellin'. And it's not overcoming challenges... it's just dealing with a DH vs the pitcher. And, when dealing with the Sox, pitching in Fenway vs. Florida.

If you assume that Beckett could just somehow ramp it up to overcome the fact that he's now pitching against better hitters in smaller parks, then why didn't he just ramp it up in Florida and have an even lower ERA? If you're looking for him to match what he did with the Marlins rate-wise, you're going to be disappointed. But, like I said above, you shouldn't have expected those numbers.

And Schill isn't the greatest example as, has been discussed here before, the D-Backs home park is one of the most hitter-friendly in the league.
Matthias
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 4860
Joined: 16 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby hoya1982 » Thu May 04, 2006 1:49 pm

I think the multiple for ERA is right, but I don't think the multiple for WHIP works like that. I saw some column about this, and while the ERA changed a lot, the WHIP didn't. I don't know why, I think it may have something to do with more intentional walks in the NL.
hoya1982
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 445
Joined: 6 Apr 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Inukchuk » Thu May 04, 2006 2:16 pm

Living in New England, it was funny to hear everyone rant and rave about Beckett before the season started. All that most casual fans knew was that he shut down the Yanks in the World Series, so consequently, he was a god and Boston now had a ridiculous rotation.

I warned people that he would be OK, but not great. Of course, no one listened. Now he's getting smacked around a little, and the "3rd place" talk has begun again. Can't say I didn't warn them...
Inukchuk
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 4014
Joined: 24 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Coming down on this hospital like the hammer of Thor

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Saturday, Oct. 25
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Kansas City at San Francisco
(8:07 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact