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Strategy help

Postby MentalPowerHouse » Wed May 03, 2006 10:41 am

My H2H league has 7 pitching stats, W SHO SV K HLD ERA WHIP, with Duke pitching a complete game shutout last night I am winning ERA, WHIP, and SHO, and tied in W and HLD. Duke is my only pitcher to pitch so far my ERA is 0 and WHIP 0.67, and SHO are very rare so should I BN my starting pitchers and give up Ks and Ws? I am also already down 2 in SV with him having 4 closers and me just 2, should I concede that? I figure for the rest of the week I might just play Scot Shields to try to get a HLD or 2.

I know its not always good to punt some stats but I am quarateed 3 and competing on the 4th. I can only get screwed if one of his SP get a SHO or if Shields blows up. His SP is much better than mine with Halladay, Carpenter, Maddux, Pettite, and Zito to my Duke, Smoltz, Harden(DL), King Felix, Kazmir, and Schmidt.
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Postby Apollo » Wed May 03, 2006 1:45 pm

Nope. By guaranteeing yourself 2 categories (ERA and WHIP), you're costing yourself at least two others (wins and K's) and maybe saves, too. You're not going to come out ahead doing that. If you play your cards right, you can take wins and K's and still hold on to ERA and WHIP.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Wed May 03, 2006 4:20 pm

I would base that on how many wins/k's you think you're likely to get versus your opponent and how good your era/whip is likely to be versus your opponent's.

Just put % numbers on things...if you stop now you're 100% likely to win era, 95% likely to win in wins, 65% SO's, 0% saves, 0% wins, 0% k's and 0% in Holds for a total of 260% (2.6 points). I made the %'s up there of course - you'll have to quantify each one of those chances.

On the other hand if you don't stop now you might be 65% likely to win era and whip (given your cushion), 85% so's, 15% saves, 40% wins, 30% k's and 15% holds for a total of 315% (3.15 points).

If those percentages were correct then you would not punt at this point. Just fill in the blanks with your best guess of the percentages if you punt and if you don't punt, add up your totals and make your call based on that.
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