mak1277 wrote: Laean wrote:
raiders_umpire wrote:Clemens will make a huge impact no matter where he signs. Heck he could sign with the Pirates or the Devil Rays and still be a very good pitcher. It might be better for him to sign with the Astros to stay out of the AL East, but still in the NL Central he will have to deal with Pujols, Lee, Aram, Dunn, Fielder and gang.
i think he'll make a huge impact in real life, especially in the post season, but not necessarily in fantasy. there's no guarantee that even if he returns, he'll repeat last year's career #s. at best i think we can reasonably expect a 3.00 era (only if he returns to houston), at worst as bad as 4.00. in NY he was on avg a 3.50 era pitcher. add in the fact that he hasn't pitched in a while and he's possible waning motivation at his age, i would be trying to sell him right now if there is some owner in the league who's willing to pay for him like he's going to repeat a sub 3 era or (god forbid) sub 2 era again.
i think if i had him this year, i'd be expecting more like carlos zambrano and pettitte #s from him, rather than oswalt/peavy type #s.
Why would there be any reason to expect him to put up numbers substantially worse if he does go back to Houston? I mean, nobody expects a sub 2 ERA, but I think he could easily drop in with an ERA around 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.10.
i don't think we necessarily disagree, it's rather a matter of degree. you think he can easily get 3 era 1.10 whip in houston. i think it'll be hard for him, but he is capable of 3 era and 1.10 whip. i don't think he'll be substantially worse than 3 era anyway if he does go back to houston. more like 3.40. the 4.00 era at worst scenario i mentioned referred more to if he goes to the yankees, or one of the other AL teams. i highly doubt he'd get 4.00 era in houston.
my point was just that getting a 3.40 ERA with a K/IP mid way through the season is certainly nice, but it's not like getting a near league title clincher or anything. i was answering the original poster's question in that his impact will be nice, not huge. no knock on clemens.