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Sell High On Jonny Gomes

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Sell High On Jonny Gomes

Postby cordscords » Wed Apr 26, 2006 9:51 am

A lot of people are going nuts because Gomes is picking up where he left off last year. I have seen a whole bunch of crazy #'s being thrown out for Gomes like 40 HR and a .300 AVG. I'm here to put that to rest, and tell you why you should try to trade him while the getting is good.

Gomes projects to get 543 AB this year.

Gomes has struck out 140 times in 121 games over the last 2 seasons (05 and 06). That would be 1.15 K’s a game.

162 X 1.5 = 186. 3 strikeouts.

543 – 186 = 357 AB for a potential HR.

Now lets just say Gomes big month stops at 10 HR. By fantasy baseball standards 30 HR is considered a good power season. There are 6 months in a season, so an average of 5 HR per month would reach the 30 HR mark. A lot of projection sites and people here at the Café had Gomes around 30 HR, so I will just assume that Gomes will hit 5 HR in a month (lets say May).

April- 10 HR
May- 5 HR

That puts Gomes on a pace for 45 HR. That’s great! But keep in mind this is will be Gomes first full year in the big leagues. You have to expect some growing pains. In fact try to find 1 player in his first full year that has not had a bad month in the HR department.

Recent Examples:
2004- Miguel Cabrera, 3 HR in July
2005- Jason Bay, 2 HR in April

Even the most complete hitters in the game today had bad months. And Gomes is definitely not on the same level as those hitters. Lets put him down for a 3 HR month at some point (lets say June).

April- 10 HR
May- 5 HR
June- 3 HR

So at the All Star Break, Gomes has 18 HR. If you subtract his first half AB from his projected potential non-strikeout full season AB, that would leave little room for Gomes to hit 12 more HR in the second half. With Gomes power (which I am not doubting by any means) he is a guy that could very well reach that mark. I'm just saying that he wont end up with godly power #'s, and he should be hovering around 30 at the end of the season.

IMO he has already hit 1/3 of his HR in nearly 1/6 of a season. It's time to deal him to a sucker and get a stud in return.
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Re: Sell High On Jonny Gomes

Postby j_d_mcnugent » Wed Apr 26, 2006 10:00 am

cordscords wrote:It's time to deal him to a sucker and get a stud in return.

if you can get a stud, then sure, sell high. he will have growing pains. everyone has an off month. i think he will continue to be a productive player throughout the course of the season though. could he have a three homer month? yes. could he bounce back with an 8 homer month? yes. i wouldnt trade him just to trade him. everyone told me to sell high on javy lopez in 2003 because there was no way he could possibly keep it up. i am not saying gomes will keep having 10 homer months, but there is no reason to think he wont continue to be a good source of power.
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Postby Ender » Wed Apr 26, 2006 10:31 am

I projected Gomes for 30 HR's and 10 SB and his hot start didn't change that. If you can find someone to trade you a more sure thing guy that puts up those numbers then go for it, but I bet its hard to find someone to do it.
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Postby Fame Throwa » Wed Apr 26, 2006 12:29 pm

I also suspect that it would be difficult to get a fair deal with Gomes. I think he's a great player, but there just hasn't been the hype for him that there's been for some of the other promising young players in the game. I think I'm going to hold on to him and just enjoy watching him this season.
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Postby pibb55 » Wed Apr 26, 2006 1:12 pm

Im friends with a major league umpires son and this ump said Gomes was gonna hit 50 this year, of course he could have been exaggerating a little but this guy can flat out rake.
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Postby CPHFighter1 » Wed Apr 26, 2006 1:18 pm

Your analysis is a bit confusing. You change your base from AB to games, then from 'ABs available for HRs' to 'HRs per month'. As a friendly word of advice, keep it consistent throughout and keep your base something that can't vary- like ABs. ABs can vary in a game, and per month. Additionlly, it looks like you try to back your argument quantitatively, but really its a qualitative argument. You just don't think Gomes will keep it up. I agree, he's not going to hit 60. But I like his chances for 40, and I doubt I'll get a sure-fire 40 HR guy for him at this point.

Now let me try to follow your research and add something qualitatively:

HR/AB in 2005: 16.6
HR/AB in 2006: 6.7

Accounting for strikeouts (how many HR every time he gets wood on the ball):

HR/(AB-K) in 2005: 11.2
HR/(AB-K) in 2006: 4.0

Let's just say that the rest of the year, he returns to hit HRs at the rate he did in 2005. I think it's fair to assume he's better this year, but let's use last year's rate anyway. I'll use your projection of 543 ABs for 2006, and he already has 67, so 543-67=476.

467 / x = 16.6

x = 28.1 HR the rest of the way, giving him 38 HR this year if he returns to the HR rate he had last year.

Now lets again account for Ks. We'll use Gomes' 2006 K rate (he has Ked 40.3% of his ABs this year) and his 2005 HR rate:

[467 * (1-.403)] / x = 11.2

x= 24.9

So even if Gomes returns to hitting HRs at the rate he did in 2005 while STILL striking out at the rate he has in 2006, he'll hit 25 more the rest of the way, giving him 35 HR this year. Barring injury, I'd have to consider this a floor on him this year in the HR department. I see adjusting this to 40-45 based on added MLB experience.
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Postby thehotcorner » Wed Apr 26, 2006 1:35 pm

I got gomes for $2 in a keeper league, i'm not giving him up too easily.
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Postby KolbSaves » Wed Apr 26, 2006 1:36 pm

CPH I think you mean ab/hr, if you're going to be stringent.
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Postby jh2031 » Wed Apr 26, 2006 1:58 pm

No thanks. I'll hold onto my buddy Gomes. And while he's hitting his 40th HR later on in the year I'll be laughing you said "sell high".
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Postby flowbee » Wed Apr 26, 2006 2:08 pm

Rookie year his 21 home runs projected to about 32 homeruns full season

IN the minors, he was hitting more home runs per at bats than Adam Dunn and Troy Glaus. He's showing no signs of a "sophomore slump" And theres good reason to believe he's just going to improve on last year's numbers. So all I can say is I 'm not gonna bother trading for a stud because I already have one right now ;-D .

Gomes also has a great OBP, and has shown his potential to steal more bases than some of the perennial "stud" outfielders out there. If he can get that going (0/2 in SB attempts so far) than watch out

OH also Cantu and Lugo have yet to play everyday and contribute like they will and that should only help his numbers more
Last edited by flowbee on Wed Apr 26, 2006 2:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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