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Jay Gibbons: Breakout Season?

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Postby The Guru » Tue Apr 25, 2006 4:33 pm

brandnew wrote:
The Guru wrote:Definite breakout year for Gibbons.

He's shown in previous years that he has power and now that he is playing everyday and 5th in a good lineup he is due to breakout.

30 HRs and 100 RBIs should be the min, his ceiling could be 35-40 HRs.

He had a .SLG% of .515 last year and he batted towards the bottom of the order all year and hit 26 HRs in only 488 AB. He hit 28 HRs his 2nd year in MLB.

Watch out for gibbons this year. ;-D


Entourage is the best show! Can't wait until it's back

I think he's going to be a stud this year, definitely.

.285
85 R
33 HR
95 RBI
Its def one of the best shows on TV. Been watching last seasons lately, I forgot how funny it is. The new season is gunna rock. Go Aquaman ;-)
(^) (o) - "Let's Hug it out"
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Apr 25, 2006 8:10 pm

The Guru wrote:Definite breakout year for Gibbons.

He's shown in previous years that he has power and now that he is playing everyday and 5th in a good lineup he is due to breakout.

30 HRs and 100 RBIs should be the min, his ceiling could be 35-40 HRs.

He had a .SLG% of .515 last year and he batted towards the bottom of the order all year and hit 26 HRs in only 488 AB. He hit 28 HRs his 2nd year in MLB.

Watch out for gibbons this year. ;-D


He could do that, but it's unlikely.

I don't think you'll see anything different from Gibbons. He's 29 and his strengths and weaknesses are well established. He has a significant platoon split, and while he's improved, he's still not a strong hitter against lefties. Couple that with his injury history, and he's unlikely to get the ABs to get close to 40 HRs. You'll get about 500 PAs, a .260 to .280 BA, 75-85 runs/rbis, and 25-35 HRs.
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Postby orange12 » Wed Apr 26, 2006 7:40 am

I can easily see 30 HRs and 100 RBI for Gibbons if not more. His BA will be around .280-.290 and his OBP will never be high.

Read between the lines of his 2005 stats and you'll see why he's breakout material. Gibbons lost 23 games of playing time last year because the Orioles still had to give priority to Sammy Sosa in RF for 66 games. During which time Gibbons was either forced to sit or shift to 1B where he clearly wasn't comfortable. (2005 situational stats show Gibbons hit .257 in 22 games at 1B compared to .324 in 71 games in RF.) I think if you gave Gibbons those 23 games back, let him start full time in right, and give him the 5th spot in the lineup which he has now, those 26 HRs in 2005 look more like 30-32 to me.
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Postby Eightan » Wed Apr 26, 2006 9:15 am

orange12 wrote:I can easily see 30 HRs and 100 RBI for Gibbons if not more. His BA will be around .280-.290 and his OBP will never be high.

Read between the lines of his 2005 stats and you'll see why he's breakout material. Gibbons lost 23 games of playing time last year because the Orioles still had to give priority to Sammy Sosa in RF for 66 games. During which time Gibbons was either forced to sit or shift to 1B where he clearly wasn't comfortable. (2005 situational stats show Gibbons hit .257 in 22 games at 1B compared to .324 in 71 games in RF.) I think if you gave Gibbons those 23 games back, let him start full time in right, and give him the 5th spot in the lineup which he has now, those 26 HRs in 2005 look more like 30-32 to me.


i'd agree with that... but i'm optimistic because i need gibbons to back me up at first now that i lost d. lee for 2 months. ;-7
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Postby Armadillo Fury » Wed Apr 26, 2006 9:36 am

I think Gibbons will be pretty good this season. He's a rare combination of power and low K's (26 HR's and 56 K's in 514 PA's last year) although he doesn't walk much. With the low K's and decent amount of HR's, I wouldn't be suprised at all with a .300 BA (His BABIP last year was .270). If I had to guess, I'd probably project something like .295-30-100 with 85 R's if he keeps hitting 5th.
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Postby mannin52 » Wed Apr 26, 2006 10:01 am

all these numbers for a breakout season are legit. First, as of right now he has 5 homers, and batting near .300. Pull that through the whole year and you got a break out year. 2nd, against lefties he is batting .308. So even more positive! And through his career, if u give him near or over 500 ABs he will get u 25 homers, and near 100 rbis. So with his average up this year, its looking like a 80/30/100/.290 season.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Apr 26, 2006 2:23 pm

orange12 wrote:I can easily see 30 HRs and 100 RBI for Gibbons if not more. His BA will be around .280-.290 and his OBP will never be high.

Read between the lines of his 2005 stats and you'll see why he's breakout material. Gibbons lost 23 games of playing time last year because the Orioles still had to give priority to Sammy Sosa in RF for 66 games. During which time Gibbons was either forced to sit or shift to 1B where he clearly wasn't comfortable. (2005 situational stats show Gibbons hit .257 in 22 games at 1B compared to .324 in 71 games in RF.) I think if you gave Gibbons those 23 games back, let him start full time in right, and give him the 5th spot in the lineup which he has now, those 26 HRs in 2005 look more like 30-32 to me.


Gibbons lost PT last year because he doesn't hit lefties well. This year, he'll sit at times with Millar and Conine playing.

Gibbons also lost time because of a back injury (about 10 games in July, IIRC). He has had a similar injury bug every year except 2003. Betting men should bet it'll happen again.

Gibbons' preferred position, according to him, is 1B. That's what he's said he's more comfortable playing.

Sorry, I just don't see it. There's the off chance he'll stay healthy and have another 2003. But I don't see how you can call that a breakout. Gibbons is a solif player, but I would not count of 2006 being any different than the past.
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Postby Philliebuster » Wed May 03, 2006 9:38 pm

#7 left the yard, he's been a gift for me so far in the points league...specifically due to the lack of strikeouts! ;-D
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