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Postby George_Foreman » Mon Apr 24, 2006 9:18 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:Depends on how much his power develops but there are thoughts that might be where he ends up power wise (in the 10-15 range). The fact is though that he is an absoulte hitting machine. Think Vlad without the power. Same kind of guy...if the ball is close he hits it. Not sure what this guy will show in the majors as guys that hit like that without taking walks but without striking out are not that common.
Silly, silly.

his last two years (age 20, 21), he's had an ISOP% better than .200. HRs in the majors will look closer to 15-25 than 10-15, and that's even without developing more power (which is VERY possible). Over 600+ ABs (he'll lead off or hit in the #2 hole), you're talking a .310+ hitter with 15/15 that could push 25/25. Hitting around Vlad assures pretty good periferals, too.

Anyhow, my point is that he has pretty good power, and if some of his doubles turn into homers (certainly concievable given his age), he could push 30 homers annually.

The biggest concern here is the utter lack of plate discipline. This combined with his pretty-good-but-not-great K-rate means that his OBP will be largely dependent upon his BABIP. A run of bad luck could really hurt him.

But I'm confident. I took him with the 7th pick in my keeper league's minor draft and I'm very happy with the pick. Don't go overboard on him, since there's no assurance that he's got a long-term job, but he's worth stowing on your bench, especially in deeper leagues. ;-D
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Apr 24, 2006 9:31 pm

George_Foreman wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:Depends on how much his power develops but there are thoughts that might be where he ends up power wise (in the 10-15 range). The fact is though that he is an absoulte hitting machine. Think Vlad without the power. Same kind of guy...if the ball is close he hits it. Not sure what this guy will show in the majors as guys that hit like that without taking walks but without striking out are not that common.
Silly, silly.

his last two years (age 20, 21), he's had an ISOP% better than .200. HRs in the majors will look closer to 15-25 than 10-15, and that's even without developing more power (which is VERY possible). Over 600+ ABs (he'll lead off or hit in the #2 hole), you're talking a .310+ hitter with 15/15 that could push 25/25. Hitting around Vlad assures pretty good periferals, too.

Anyhow, my point is that he has pretty good power, and if some of his doubles turn into homers (certainly concievable given his age), he could push 30 homers annually.

The biggest concern here is the utter lack of plate discipline. This combined with his pretty-good-but-not-great K-rate means that his OBP will be largely dependent upon his BABIP. A run of bad luck could really hurt him.

But I'm confident. I took him with the 7th pick in my keeper league's minor draft and I'm very happy with the pick. Don't go overboard on him, since there's no assurance that he's got a long-term job, but he's worth stowing on your bench, especially in deeper leagues. ;-D


I've seen projections anywhere from 10-15 up to what you mentioned. But even if you think his ceiling is in the higher end we can all agree he won't have that power right now. My Vlad comparison is valid...he's a guy that flat hits everything thrown which means, as you said, his OBP will be largely dependent on his BABIP. From everything I've heard about him though that shouldn't be that much of a problem. He'll definitely be streakier simply because of the higher luck factor involved in that type of player but he's going to be a good ML player. Whether he becomes a great one or not depends almost entirely on whether the people predicting 10-15 or the people predicting close to 30 hr's as his ceiling are correct.
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Postby George_Foreman » Mon Apr 24, 2006 9:36 pm

Well, the .200+ ISOP% for the past two years (between AA and AAA) tells me that he's well on his way to developing into a player who can take a few deep. Also, he hit 12 over 270 ABs in A ball when he was 20 and 7 in 190 ABs for AA. Give him 600-650 ABs at the ML level (which is likely) and I don't see why he's not going to hit 15-20 as a floor. Given his age, I can only see that number going up.

I just felt it was incorrect to imply that he doesn't have any power. I certainly agree that it's not at Vlad's level (otherwise, it's a pretty fair comparisson, at least numbers-wise), but he's definitely got a little pop. ;-)
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Apr 24, 2006 9:38 pm

I'd really like you to be right by the way...he's on my farm team too. I just hadn't seen a large number of people projecting that much power. I'd definitely take it though...just have to figure out what to do with Utley though. :-?
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Postby tal1286 » Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:50 pm

anybody know why they called him up? Its not like Kennedy has been struggling here. He's hitting .373 w/ a .949 OPS.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:53 pm

tal1286 wrote:anybody know why they called him up? Its not like Kennedy has been struggling here. He's hitting .373 w/ a .949 OPS.


That's the part that's bothering me. Kennedy should not be on the bench and Kendrick should either be playing every day in the minors or every day in the majors. He should NOT be sitting on the bench for the major league team. Any Angels fans have some insight here?
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Postby barakaxaxa » Mon Apr 24, 2006 11:51 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:
tal1286 wrote:anybody know why they called him up? Its not like Kennedy has been struggling here. He's hitting .373 w/ a .949 OPS.


That's the part that's bothering me. Kennedy should not be on the bench and Kendrick should either be playing every day in the minors or every day in the majors. He should NOT be sitting on the bench for the major league team. Any Angels fans have some insight here?


From the AP:
Maicer Izturis, who went on the 15-day disabled list Monday because of a left hamstring strain, is the third player the Angels have put on the DL in a span of six days - including RHP Bartolo Colon and reserve DH/OF Juan Rivera. ... 2B Howie Kendrick was recalled from Triple-A Salt Lake to replace Izturis on the roster.


Who knows, maybe he picks up some ABs at DH while Rivera is on the DL, too.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Apr 24, 2006 11:54 pm

Interesting idea...he wouldn't be a bad guy to plug in at DH for a couple weeks, get him some ML experience and then send back down. He wouldn't have to worry about his gloves or any rookie jitters in the field. He could just go out and hit 3-4 times a night and get a taste of the big leagues.
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Postby Phatferd » Tue Apr 25, 2006 12:02 am

From the stuff I have heard and read he will get some ABs in the DH role, but Salmon just went yard today, so he might have the stronghold on that spot. They like benching Kennedy vs. lefties.
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Postby jealousblues » Tue Apr 25, 2006 3:14 am

The Loveable Losers wrote:
tal1286 wrote:anybody know why they called him up? Its not like Kennedy has been struggling here. He's hitting .373 w/ a .949 OPS.


That's the part that's bothering me. Kennedy should not be on the bench and Kendrick should either be playing every day in the minors or every day in the majors. He should NOT be sitting on the bench for the major league team. Any Angels fans have some insight here?


Duh, he (adam Kennedy) is being traded back to the Cardinals. ;-)
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