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Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:33 pm

garf112 wrote:Bravo! I don't own Soriano, and I wasn't going to trade for him, but that was such a good article that it just kept me reading.


Writing the article actually has me thinking of Soriano as a buy-low candidate as strange as that sounds. If you can play up his struggles since June 5th you can get yourself a 2b eligible guy that should be able to put up a minimum .269/32/107/76/42 pace for the remainder of the season. That's ridiculously good if you can get him for less than full value. I'm not sure how successful you could be at buying low on him right now but 20 games worth of terrible production can really start to erase that fast start in the minds of owners - especially owners in h2h leagues.
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Postby garf112 » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:40 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:
garf112 wrote:Bravo! I don't own Soriano, and I wasn't going to trade for him, but that was such a good article that it just kept me reading.


Writing the article actually has me thinking of Soriano as a buy-low candidate as strange as that sounds. If you can play up his struggles since June 5th you can get yourself a 2b eligible guy that should be able to put up a minimum .269/32/107/76/42 pace for the remainder of the season. That's ridiculously good if you can get him for less than full value. I'm not sure how successful you could be at buying low on him right now but 20 games worth of terrible production can really start to erase that fast start in the minds of owners - especially owners in h2h leagues.


The owner that I would be trading with would probably only deal him for my first born at this point, eventhough he would have taken MUCH less over the winter. The concerns were real about ballpark and lineup effects.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:53 pm

garf112 wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:
garf112 wrote:Bravo! I don't own Soriano, and I wasn't going to trade for him, but that was such a good article that it just kept me reading.


Writing the article actually has me thinking of Soriano as a buy-low candidate as strange as that sounds. If you can play up his struggles since June 5th you can get yourself a 2b eligible guy that should be able to put up a minimum .269/32/107/76/42 pace for the remainder of the season. That's ridiculously good if you can get him for less than full value. I'm not sure how successful you could be at buying low on him right now but 20 games worth of terrible production can really start to erase that fast start in the minds of owners - especially owners in h2h leagues.


The owner that I would be trading with would probably only deal him for my first born at this point, eventhough he would have taken MUCH less over the winter. The concerns were real about ballpark and lineup effects.


Yeah...it all depends on how savvy the person in question is...this is a time where the more savvy the person is the MORE likely you are to be able to buy low. Someone that's familiar with the ballpark and lineup concerns may sell low thinking 'at least I'm getting third round value before his numbers fall off too much' whereas someone that doesn't have a clue will just look at the overall numbers so far on the season and say 'I want Pujols + a throw-in for him - he's ranked higher than Pujols right now'.

I think there are probably quite a few owners out there that might sell him for 3rd round talent after this cold streak whereas those numbers look like at least 2nd round talent. The Nationals for whatever reason have been able to provide at least decent context numbers for Soriano and his ab/hr potential looks like it's going to be at or slightly above his 'good years' which makes him a 32 home run hitter even if RFK starts to drag him down.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Jul 20, 2006 3:13 pm

It's been awhile but here's the newest article:

Top 10 Candidates for a Reversal of Ratio Fortunes

It's useful from time to time to take a look at which pitchers have been unlucky. Sometimes the bloop hits fall in, the runners don't get stranded as often as they should or the hits all come in the same inning leading to a pounding. Identifying unlucky pitchers can present you with excellent buy-low candidates.
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Postby PlayingWithFire » Thu Jul 20, 2006 3:26 pm

great article ;-D

But I'm not sure I'd trust Vazzy considering his track record after the ASG :-o
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Jul 20, 2006 3:28 pm

PlayingWithFire wrote:great article ;-D

But I'm not sure I'd trust Vazzy considering his track record after the ASG :-o


I'm one of those people that don't really buy into the pre-ASB/post-ASB stats unless there's a good reason behind it (a la Aramis Ramirez just not playing well in cold weather). I'm not a huge Vazquez fan (I have another article in my article list that cautioned against going ga-ga over him when he was on a roll) but he's bound to be undervalued at this point.
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Postby PlayingWithFire » Thu Jul 20, 2006 3:46 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:
PlayingWithFire wrote:great article ;-D

But I'm not sure I'd trust Vazzy considering his track record after the ASG :-o


I'm one of those people that don't really buy into the pre-ASB/post-ASB stats unless there's a good reason behind it (a la Aramis Ramirez just not playing well in cold weather). I'm not a huge Vazquez fan (I have another article in my article list that cautioned against going ga-ga over him when he was on a roll) but he's bound to be undervalued at this point.


But I think there's a good reason to think that Vazquez will do worse in the 2nd half. Will he experience the collapse like he did in 2004 with the Yankees? Maybe not. But I've read numerous report when we traded him that we overpitched him and his arm is overworked. I have nothing but good wishes for him because he has done some wonderful things for us. But I'll bet money he never get back to his Cy Young form again. And I have serious questions about him putting up any sub 4 ERA season in the AL.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Jul 20, 2006 4:10 pm

Sub-4.00 is pushing it for him. He's definitely not a fantasy stud or anything. In my Vazquez article I projected him for a 4.00 era and a 1.256 whip. Nothing's really changed with his pitching to make me question those numbers. He was ridiculously lucky early in the year (especially with hr/f%) and he's been very unlucky with his hit and strand rates since then. He's certainly not going to return to his Cy Young form but I think he can turn things around and be a useful back of the rotation sort of guy in h2h leagues.
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Postby Philliebuster » Fri Jul 21, 2006 3:39 pm

Great article LL...I'm on the Bush/Peavy bandwagon...and am anxious to see how the Peavster looks this evening against SF.

My theory with Peavy for his last outing vs. Atl. was that he actually pitched well giving up only 7 earned runs. As Atl. was scoring 10+ per game around that stretch and on a tear. And i'm sticking with that story. ;-D
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Fri Jul 21, 2006 4:05 pm

Philliebuster wrote:Great article LL...I'm on the Bush/Peavy bandwagon...and am anxious to see how the Peavster looks this evening against SF.

My theory with Peavy for his last outing vs. Atl. was that he actually pitched well giving up only 7 earned runs. As Atl. was scoring 10+ per game around that stretch and on a tear. And i'm sticking with that story. ;-D


It's certainly possible to pitch well and give up 7 er's. Vazquez pitched a gem the other day and gave up 5 er's (I give a run-down of what happened in my article). 4 straight singles, a force at home and then a grand slam and BOOM...game over.
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