garf112 wrote: The Loveable Losers wrote:
garf112 wrote:Bravo! I don't own Soriano, and I wasn't going to trade for him, but that was such a good article that it just kept me reading.
Writing the article actually has me thinking of Soriano as a buy-low candidate as strange as that sounds. If you can play up his struggles since June 5th you can get yourself a 2b eligible guy that should be able to put up a minimum .269/32/107/76/42 pace for the remainder of the season. That's ridiculously good if you can get him for less than full value. I'm not sure how successful you could be at buying low on him right now but 20 games worth of terrible production can really start to erase that fast start in the minds of owners - especially owners in h2h leagues.
The owner that I would be trading with would probably only deal him for my first born at this point, eventhough he would have taken MUCH less over the winter. The concerns were real about ballpark and lineup effects.
Yeah...it all depends on how savvy the person in question is...this is a time where the more savvy the person is the MORE likely you are to be able to buy low. Someone that's familiar with the ballpark and lineup concerns may sell low thinking 'at least I'm getting third round value before his numbers fall off too much' whereas someone that doesn't have a clue will just look at the overall numbers so far on the season and say 'I want Pujols + a throw-in for him - he's ranked higher than Pujols right now'.
I think there are probably quite a few owners out there that might sell him for 3rd round talent after this cold streak whereas those numbers look like at least 2nd round talent. The Nationals for whatever reason have been able to provide at least decent context numbers for Soriano and his ab/hr potential looks like it's going to be at or slightly above his 'good years' which makes him a 32 home run hitter even if RFK starts to drag him down.