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Detailed Player Analysis

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Detailed Player Analysis

Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Apr 24, 2006 3:52 pm

Recently I wrote a couple of lengthy posts on Chase Utley and Ichiro Suzuki to set their owners' minds at ease. That got me thinking that I should keep an archive of my detailed writings (both for players and for other topics) and also that it might be fun to put out analysis on one or two players or issues a week.

First, I've tossed up a web site for my past articles and grabbed 4 that came to mind that I've done so far this year. The web site is http://www.bobandbridget.tzo.com/home/llarticles.htm . Don't fret if it's down...it's on a home pc so that tends to happen every now and then - it'll usually come back up within an hour or so since neither my wife nor I can bear to be without internet access that long. ;)

Second, I'm definitely willing to take special requests on players to examine. Normally I just write about whatever players pique my interest at the moment...in Ichiro and Chase's case I saw a lot of people starting to grumble about them and wanted to head off anyone at the Cafe from doing anything rash. My next planned target is Joe Crede who simply found his way onto my radar by being dropped in a competitive league in which I currently play. That said, he's just the guy that found my radar most recently and if anyone else has any other players they'd like to see profiled I'd be happy to take my stab at them and add them to my small but growing portfolio. ;)

So feel free to comment on the articles here, suggest topics or players for analysis or just to complain about my terrible graphic arts skills. ;)
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Postby Philliebuster » Mon Apr 24, 2006 3:57 pm

Very nice, and interested to read the Crede piece! ;-D
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Mon Apr 24, 2006 6:10 pm

Get Greedy with Crede

Here's an excerpt (I'd post the entire thing here but the formatting sucks when I try to bring it over):

Let's cut to the chase here. Either Joe Crede is the anti-Ichiro that has some unknown anti-skills that allow him to hit the ball right at the fielders every time he puts the ball in play or he's been one of the unluckiest players alive over his career so far. Accept one or the other...either one is equally plausible. But you have to accept one or the other - nothing else explains Crede's career. And if you accept that he's simply been unlucky then Joe Crede may be one of the biggest steals on the FA market this year.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Apr 25, 2006 10:52 am

Anyone else have any suggestions for the next player now that the Crede article is up?
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Postby ukrneal » Tue Apr 25, 2006 10:59 am

Bannister - Mets
Davis - Milwaukee
Lowell - Boston

Or whoever tickles your fancy.
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Postby ILoveBush » Tue Apr 25, 2006 12:05 pm

Lowell or Zito would help me out. Thanks
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Postby TheYanks04 » Tue Apr 25, 2006 12:23 pm

Players define the stats, not the other way around. Crede is not a very good hitter...simple as that. You can look at whatever reasons you want to to explain why from nad luck to he just has the ability to make outs. Really does not matter. The man has been around for awhile and has demonstrated his inability to hit for a decent avg.
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Postby rsjrx21 » Tue Apr 25, 2006 12:39 pm

i also would love a detailed analyis of Doug Davis
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Apr 25, 2006 12:40 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:Players define the stats, not the other way around. Crede is not a very good hitter...simple as that. You can look at whatever reasons you want to to explain why from nad luck to he just has the ability to make outs. Really does not matter. The man has been around for awhile and has demonstrated his inability to hit for a decent avg.


We shall see. While it's possible you're right and Crede has found some anti-skill that enables him to hit the ball straight at fielders 75% of the time instead of only 70% or he's been unlucky. Like I said in the article you've got to take your pick there.

But it's not out of the realm of statistical possibilities that he's simply been unlucky. That's the tricky part with batting averages - while we look at a batting average of .255 as being extremely different from a .285 average they're statistically very similar. So for a guy to have a string of 3 unlucky years that see him get a hit 3% less of the time than he should is not that out of the realm of statistical possibilities.

For what Crede is going to cost you in most leagues though he's definitely worth rostering on the chance that I'm right.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Apr 25, 2006 12:43 pm

Lowell would be a bit out of my wheelhouse. The problem there is that statistical analysis assumes one major factor - that the skill set of the player has not significantly changed.

In Lowell's case there have been reports of a significant drop-off in bat speed (at least during spring training). I would trust traditional scouting reports on Lowell at this point far more than anything you'd get from a number-cruncher like myself since the question isn't whether Lowell is set for a breakout/dropoff based on the statistics. The question is whether Lowell's bat speed has degraded so significantly that he's a completely different player.
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