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What if... Soriano is simply a stud???

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Postby HOOTIE » Mon Apr 24, 2006 9:30 pm

NikkiSixx wrote:Ive got one!


How many people have hit 3 HR's in one game at RFK stadium?

How many players went 30/30 last year?

How many players over the last 5 years have come close to hitting 40/40 twice?





And cords says to me "Someone will be stupid enough to pay him a lot of money next year."

You know I respect your opinion a whole hell of a lot on baseball dude, but I disrespect comments like that.


30/30 is way overrated. Sorianos career stats including hitting/fielding, show him only +40 using BRAA, and FRAA adjusted all time. So he's plus 40 above average in runs above average. That is not big money.

People here confuse fantasy with irl. Soriano is a ton better in fantasy (sb plus no defense). But irl, he's barely over average.
A career 5.62 rc/27 is ok, but nothing special. And factor in his huge defensive numbers, and he's just a tad over average.
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Postby cordscords » Mon Apr 24, 2006 9:34 pm

His BA has gone down, his OBP has gone down, and no improvement has been shown in his K/BB ratio that would indicate an improvement in those categories.
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Postby NikkiSixx » Mon Apr 24, 2006 9:35 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
NikkiSixx wrote:Ive got one!


How many people have hit 3 HR's in one game at RFK stadium?

How many players went 30/30 last year?

How many players over the last 5 years have come close to hitting 40/40 twice?





And cords says to me "Someone will be stupid enough to pay him a lot of money next year."

You know I respect your opinion a whole hell of a lot on baseball dude, but I disrespect comments like that.


30/30 is way overrated. Sorianos career stats including hitting/fielding, show him only +40 using BRAA, and FRAA adjusted all time. So he's plus 40 above average in runs above average. That is not big money.

People here confuse fantasy with irl. Soriano is a ton better in fantasy (sb plus no defense). But irl, he's barely over average.
A career 5.62 rc/27 is ok, but nothing special. And factor in his huge defensive numbers, and he's just a tad over average.


Im really only talking about statistics that matter as a fantasy baseball player, I forgot to include he had less errors in MORE innings last year compared to 2004, and he had more extra base hits last year than 2004...some consistent decrease.


As a real life 2B he is still a top 5 guy I would want on my team. You just dont find those type of power numbers at that position like you find in Soriano, its really a bonus. Just like you expect your corner infield/corner outfield to have big power numbers, you dont really expect those numbers from a middle infielder. I will accept the good with the bad with Soriano, as I feel the good way overtrumps the bad.
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Postby GSes » Mon Apr 24, 2006 9:39 pm

i wouldn't sign soriano to a deal on my real life team. he is gonna be out of baseball in 2yrs, remember? :-D
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Postby NikkiSixx » Mon Apr 24, 2006 9:40 pm

cordscords wrote:His BA has gone down, his OBP has gone down, and no improvement has been shown in his K/BB ratio that would indicate an improvement in those categories.


but there hasnt been a decrease in his K/BB ratio either, they are what they have always been.

And if you can score 100 runs 3 times in your career with a on base percentage like that, I think it tells a lot about how special of a hitter he is.


What ever he lacks with on base percentage he makes up for it with extra base hits.


Again, I am very confident his batting average will be much higher than .268, probably a whole .015 points higher.

The Nationals did the right thing by trading for Soriano.
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Postby NikkiSixx » Mon Apr 24, 2006 9:43 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
NikkiSixx wrote:Ive got one!


How many people have hit 3 HR's in one game at RFK stadium?

How many players went 30/30 last year?

How many players over the last 5 years have come close to hitting 40/40 twice?





And cords says to me "Someone will be stupid enough to pay him a lot of money next year."

You know I respect your opinion a whole hell of a lot on baseball dude, but I disrespect comments like that.


30/30 is way overrated. Sorianos career stats including hitting/fielding, show him only +40 using BRAA, and FRAA adjusted all time. So he's plus 40 above average in runs above average. That is not big money.

People here confuse fantasy with irl. Soriano is a ton better in fantasy (sb plus no defense). But irl, he's barely over average.
A career 5.62 rc/27 is ok, but nothing special. And factor in his huge defensive numbers, and he's just a tad over average.

Yes, steals mean much more in fantasy than they do in real life, but he still puts himself in scoring positiong 30-40 times per year PLUS his doubles and triples, that means something if you ask me. He offers more at the plate that all the other 2B dont offer with the exception of Chase Utley(last year anyway, he looks promising though) and Jeff Kent (dont know about Kent this year though, he is getting up there in years).
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Postby cordscords » Mon Apr 24, 2006 9:44 pm

NikkiSixx wrote:And if you can score 100 runs 3 times in your career with a on base percentage like that, I think it tells a lot about how special of a hitter he is.


He played with the Yankees and Rangers. It comes as no shock that he has scored over a 100 runs. 100 runs will definitley not happen with the Nationals.

And I am aware that his BB/K ratio has not gotten worse, it has stayed extremely bad while his BA and OBP continue to go down. So as he continues to age, you can only expect worse.
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Postby NikkiSixx » Mon Apr 24, 2006 9:53 pm

cordscords wrote:
NikkiSixx wrote:And if you can score 100 runs 3 times in your career with a on base percentage like that, I think it tells a lot about how special of a hitter he is.


He played with the Yankees and Rangers. It comes as no shock that he has scored over a 100 runs. 100 runs will definitley not happen with the Nationals.

And I am aware that his BB/K ratio has not gotten worse, it has stayed extremely bad while his BA and OBP continue to go down. So as he continues to age, you can only expect worse.


He has at least 4 more good years left in him, probably more.


Yes but with that On Base percentage? batting 5th most of last year in the rangers lineup? For those who dont know that was AFTER Young, Teixeira and Blalock, and yet he still had a significant increase in runs scored. Now how would someone with a low on-base percentage like Soriano do that? OH! I KNOW! Its the Home Runs, plus the doubles and triples, PLUS the 30+ stolen bases he gets. The man gets himself in scoring position a whole hell of a lot for a guy who doesnt walk much at all.

According to last season, I dont see any reason to not believe he will score 100 runs this year, assuming he stays at the top of the Nationals lineup. That is pretty tough to do, maybe more in the 90 runs range, Guillen doesnt do well with runners in scoring position. Soriano will be a fantasy beast yet again though and well worth a late early 3rd round pick most people have been getting him at.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:11 pm

I don't know where you see Soriano going in mid thrid round, because Yahoo and ESPN boyth have him as mid second round.

The other thing that has been declining has been his SBs. His first two years he was above 40 SBs. The last two years he has not topped 30.

Soriano will finish 2006 as he did 2004. Ranked somewhere around 60-80, around 5th to 6th for 2B.
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Postby nuggets » Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:58 pm

Phatferd wrote:
SeovyeQuirsefron wrote:
Phatferd wrote:I love when new people show and start debating with the likes of Nuggest and GTWMA. They have no idea what they are getting themselves into.


So far, Nuggets is losing with his lame attempts to try to apply my arguments to situations that clearly don't fit. (eg. Cabrera)

Just because Nuggets can spew out a bunch of stats doesn't make him right.

Just ask yourself this:

If the National had Soriano plus three hitters better than him -- as has been argued -- wouldn't their lineup be awesome?


I was the new person once (to my credit, nuggest was too and it was over SBs) and I still think I am right, but I don't think he is wrong either. Old thread, but who cares, the point is he has defended his position and I would say better than you have.

One of the main flaws in one of your argumesnts, which was refuted by nuggets well, is the whole weather/heat thing in Texas. The heat obviously effects pitchers more than hitters and "math" proves this to be true.


Ahh, old times :-D

I actually don't remembe the exact thread, can you remind me, I like to look at the dumb crap I've said/though in the past :-D

Geez, I go move some furniture, have dinner with the fam and 6 pages of " your stats that I don't take the time to understand are dumb" later...


GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
SeovyeQuirsefron wrote:Nick Johnson Salary 2006 -- $3.2 million
Jose Vidro Salary 2006 -- $7 million
Jose Guillen Salary 2006 -- $4 million
Alfonso Soriano Salary -- $10 million

These are the values put on these guys by the guys who actually pay the bills.

Given a choice between believe some math major and the guy who actually forks out the dough, I'll take the guy who puts his money where his mouth is.

P.S. They're obviously not paying Soriano for his fielding.


Hmm...so I guess this logic means Chan Ho Park is one of the ten best pitchers in baseball.


Oh come on, you know he has super-ninja power :-b

cordscords wrote:
NikkiSixx wrote:That being said, what I noticed from Soriano is when he was playing on the road when he played for Texas, he would try to hard to hit fly balls that resulted in outs.


If what you are saying is true, he kept his normal swing at home (an extreme hitters park) and on the road (probably most pitchers parks) he tried swinging for the fences and failed at doing so.

RFK is an extreme pitchers park. Soriano will be trying to launch HR in RFK, and it just wont end up happening.

I really think this says it all:

- 3 straight years of statistical decline
- Moving from the AL to NL
- Playing in a pitchers park
- Poor lineup protection

Those are just really simple indicators too. Nuggets and GTW pulled out some other crazy statistics that backed up the Soriano is overrated argument even more.

The writing is on the wall...


That post should have ended this thread, good summary cordscords.

NikkiSixx wrote:
cordscords wrote:
NikkiSixx wrote:That being said, what I noticed from Soriano is when he was playing on the road when he played for Texas, he would try to hard to hit fly balls that resulted in outs.


If what you are saying is true, he kept his normal swing at home (an extreme hitters park) and on the road (probably most pitchers parks) he tried swinging for the fences and failed at doing so.

RFK is an extreme pitchers park. Soriano will be trying to launch HR in RFK, and it just wont end up happening.

I really think this says it all:

- 3 straight years of statistical decline
- Moving from the AL to NL
- Playing in a pitchers park
- Poor lineup protection

Those are just really simple indicators too. Nuggets and GTW pulled out some other crazy statistics that backed up the Soriano is overrated argument even more.

The writing is on the wall...


Alright, if Soriano bats .280 and hits 30 HR's than I get to kick you in the nuts, if he hits under even one of those, you can kick me in the nuts, deal? I can only make this bet with you because I know you in person. :-)



Goes to show how confident I am in Soriano, he will do well no matter where he goes.



I dont want a long argument here, I think I have said almost everything I need to say about Soriano.


LOL SORIANO IS SO GOOD YOU CAN KICK ME IN THE NUTS, LMAF'NAO

:-b :-b :-b

NikkiSixx wrote:The fact of the matter is [edit] my nuts will hurt at the end of the year .
Sorry, couldn't resist :-D

NikkiSixx wrote:he is only like 27 or 28, he is definately right in his prime. Whatever he did 3 or 4 years ago he can do right now and probably exceed them.

I sure someone clarified this already, Soriano is 30 bud. You are living in the past...and your nuts will hurt because of it...whew too much Tequila at dinner, this thread seems insanely funny now..is it just my drunk self?>...oh god, GSes grammer is about to make me puke....(runs to bano)...("bak" to "bak" runs to bano)....


GSes wrote:
cristóbal wrote:
GSes wrote:
Phatferd wrote:I love when new people show and start debating with the likes of Nuggest and GTWMA. They have no idea what they are getting themselves into.


LOL, i been here A LOT longer then both of u, so please.


one of the biggest problems here at the cafe. people believe their tenure allows for them to have a higher authority on what is right and what is wrong when it comes to fantasy baseball.


unfortuantely for them, i have higher tenure then both of them, ive even been involved in numerous things here at the cafe, including multiple leagues where i finished near the top, and i in the CAFE Challenge, i finished 3rd for our team.

and I BELIVE tenure means nothing, u can learn something FROM EVERY1, i respect any1s oppinion who posted it, unless of course they think a guy who hit 500hr is a fluke.


I'm drunk b!atch and I've been a part of the cafe so long I've been booted twice..don't tell anyone....remember when it just started and some people would AIM you (me) telling you to participate? Here to competitive banter that doesn't cross the line ;-D


NikkiSixx wrote:
Ender wrote:Soriano is at least 30 years old and most likely still hasn't told the truth and is older. He was actually old for most levels of the minors so you have to scale back his numbers. His peripheral numbers for NYY suggested around a .280 hitter and suggest he just had a lot of balls bounce his way. His peripheral numbers for the rangers suggest a .280 hitter in 2005 but only a .260 hitter in 2004 when he slumped. When you add in age, the new ballpark, adjusting to a new league etc it would not surprise me at all to see him hit in the .250-.260 range.

The real question is going to be his power which has been more up and down than his BA ever was. I really do not see him repeating last years numbers in that park, it would shock me to see him hit over 30 HR. I personally think he's going to dip back down around 25 HR's. The hardest question to answer is how much he'll steal. The nats aren't a big running team and I'd expect them to try to protect him so they he doesn't get hurt but so far he's been stealing at a good rate. I put him down for 25 SB but it wouldn't surprise me to see him break that.

So you are left with a .260 hitter with 25 HR, 25 SB, 90 R, 90 RBI or something in that ballpark(really depends on where he ends up batting long term).

For my money thats the 3rd or maybe 4th best 2B in baseball. . However those are not 1st or 2nd round numbers. I wouldn't have drafted him until the 4th round myself but he went 2nd round in most of my drafts.


That was pretty stupid...


Whoa that's like the worst one liner I've ever seen relative to the post it responded to. Ender knows his isht man, don't make yourself look so bad...must be the swelling balls...

dude this thread is more funny than the Beltre thread...

wow Gses how have you lasted this long? you should be kicked out for stu...doh! no personal remarks...arg~!

SeovyeQuirsefron wrote:
Phatferd wrote:
SeovyeQuirsefron wrote:
Phatferd wrote:I love when new people show and start debating with the likes of Nuggest and GTWMA. They have no idea what they are getting themselves into.


So far, Nuggets is losing with his lame attempts to try to apply my arguments to situations that clearly don't fit. (eg. Cabrera)

Just because Nuggets can spew out a bunch of stats doesn't make him right.

Just ask yourself this:

If the National had Soriano plus three hitters better than him -- as has been argued -- wouldn't their lineup be awesome?


I was the new person once (to my credit, nuggest was too and it was over SBs) and I still think I am right, but I don't think he is wrong either. Old thread, but who cares, the point is he has defended his position and I would say better than you have.

One of the main flaws in one of your argumesnts, which was refuted by nuggets well, is the whole weather/heat thing in Texas. The heat obviously effects pitchers more than hitters and "math" proves this to be true.


The alleged fact (and I don't especially doubt that it's true) that pitchers are more effected by the heat than hitters in no way responds to my argument that hitters are in fact effected by the Texas heat. Pitchers are not at issue here.


Great so now those who live in happy Soriano land think pitchers quality doesn't effect hitters production...I'm a fricken halucinating or what? There was no worm in the bottle , I swear!

DK wrote:And Soriano isn't even a fluke yet. The season's like two weeks in. Let's wait for Maddux to have an ERA over one and Chris Shelton to hit under .400 before we let the ink dry on the record books saying Soriano's a great, eh?


ok I couldn't have halucinated that, that's a great point for the average (90% it seems like) fantasy manager to drive into their heads every day. Incredibly prudent.

GSes wrote:i am sure there are plenty of ppl out there who agree soriano is still going to be very productive this year, he has done it so far in 2006.

seems like mabe they are just scared to voice their oppinion against the likes of nuggets, DK, and the other guy

wut a joke.


You've been here 3 years and think people won't voice their opinoins against others? You either are too stoned or are an impersonator.
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