This is a completely ridiculous thread. We are what, 30% into the season? How can you possibly judge a guy a bust at this point? Especially a guy who is capable of knocking 15 HRs in a month and has in fact done so in the past?
Over the last couple of years, there are so many examples of guys starting extrememly hot or cold and then returning to the mean that I will not even bother enumerating them. Conversely, I can only name one recent instance where a bona fide top 5 pick has been legitimately dissappointing for reasons other than injury, which is Beltran last year.
So if you believe that Tex is for some reasons the complete exception to recent history, go ahead and trade him for the floavor of the week and stop whining. Otherwise, be patient, and the odds are high that come October 1, you will not be very disappointed.
I had just seen a highlight of the Angels-Rangers game. Tex barely missed on a big fly in the 9th vs. K-Rod that drifted to right CF and was caught a few feet off the wall. Don't panic yet. I don't like reasoning by analogy, but you look at Manny Ramirez and Andruw Jones, who started last season off to a dreadful start, only to wind up with career seasons. Plus, I tend to think Tex is on the same boat as A-Ram, as a hitter that thrives in the warmer months. His road splits may not be that attractive, but that is a good indicator that Tex is going to turn it around in the Texas heat.
this discussion got me thinking a little bit about why tex is actually doing worse this year than last year or the year before regardless of his penchant for slow starts. i noticed a few of things when i started to look at his stats from this year a bit more.
his p/pa (pitches per plate appearance) is actually up slightly this year over last, and in line with 04. 3.8 this year, 3.7 last year, and 3.8 in 2004. i'm assuming that this is a good indicator that he can succeed, regardless of lineup protection.
his line drive % is also up this year, at 23.1%. the two previous years he logged in at 21.4% and 20.9% respectively. so the bright spot here is that he is at least hitting the ball hard.
his hr per outfield fly ball is the thing that is troubling to me. this year he is sitting at a very low 6.3%, as compared to 19.3% and 19.9% for the last two years. however, he has reduced his gb% this year to 5% lower than it has been for the last two years. its sitting at around 35%, so the only thing i can make of this is that he's hitting a lot of outfield flies that are getting caught instead of turning into hrs.
given all that, i'm fairly confident that he can turn it around relatively soon. his rbis should start coming in droves when/if he starts hitting, since young and matthews jr have posted good obps and slgs so far this year, so i don't believe he's short on at bats w/ runners in scoring position.
one warning though, i'm not sure that i am interpreting all of this data correctly, so take it with a grain of salt. wheres beltran's boy when you need him? he'd probably have a good idea whether or not this analysis is correct.
fbc_fan wrote:this discussion got me thinking a little bit about why tex is actually doing worse this year than last year or the year before regardless of his penchant for slow starts. i noticed a few of things when i started to look at his stats from this year a bit more.
his p/pa (pitches per plate appearance) is actually up slightly this year over last, and in line with 04. 3.8 this year, 3.7 last year, and 3.8 in 2004. i'm assuming that this is a good indicator that he can succeed, regardless of lineup protection.
his line drive % is also up this year, at 23.1%. the two previous years he logged in at 21.4% and 20.9% respectively. so the bright spot here is that he is at least hitting the ball hard.
his hr per outfield fly ball is the thing that is troubling to me. this year he is sitting at a very low 6.3%, as compared to 19.3% and 19.9% for the last two years. however, he has reduced his gb% this year to 5% lower than it has been for the last two years. its sitting at around 35%, so the only thing i can make of this is that he's hitting a lot of outfield flies that are getting caught instead of turning into hrs.
given all that, i'm fairly confident that he can turn it around relatively soon. his rbis should start coming in droves when/if he starts hitting, since young and matthews jr have posted good obps and slgs so far this year, so i don't believe he's short on at bats w/ runners in scoring position.
one warning though, i'm not sure that i am interpreting all of this data correctly, so take it with a grain of salt. wheres beltran's boy when you need him? he'd probably have a good idea whether or not this analysis is correct.
If the numbers you've quoted are correct then I'd say your interpretation is right. I have a lot more concern of the hr/f% than you indicate in your analysis though. That number is the bread-and-butter number for power hitters. If he's dropped off that significantly that would usually indicate a deterioration of skills, an injury or a significant change in approach at the plate. Given that he's hitting a higher number of line drives I have to wonder whether he's adopted a more level swing that allows him to hit the ball on a line more often but saps some of the power from his fly balls. Complete conjecture on my part...maybe the jet stream is just knocking all of his fly balls down before they get out of the park or he didn't eat his Wheaties too. But that hr/f% being where it is...that's especially troubling. The league average is about 11-12%. :(
FBIGUY wrote:And my season goes down with him.....I am thinking of pulling him and plugging in someone who can get a hit!
That rookie from arizona maybe!
oh how far the first rounders can fall.
Nothing like a panic sale to help your opponents.
Remember the bank run scene from "It's a Wonderful Life"? If you want Potter to win, go ahead and sell him Teix for cheap. You'll regret living in Potterville the rest of the season.
FBIGUY wrote:And my season goes down with him.....I am thinking of pulling him and plugging in someone who can get a hit!
That rookie from arizona maybe!
oh how far the first rounders can fall.
Nothing like a panic sale to help your opponents.
Remember the bank run scene from "It's a Wonderful Life"? If you want Potter to win, go ahead and sell him Teix for cheap. You'll regret living in Potterville the rest of the season.
Potter just sold me Tex for Sizemore in one league.
And he's definitely a slow starter: 3-year average of .240 / .329 / .449 in April vs. .282 / .362 / . 541 overall. This year the power #s are the obvious concern but, same as Manny, you trust them until they give you a good reason not to. And under two months of production isn't a good reason not to.
fbc_fan wrote:this discussion got me thinking a little bit about why tex is actually doing worse this year than last year or the year before regardless of his penchant for slow starts. i noticed a few of things when i started to look at his stats from this year a bit more.
his p/pa (pitches per plate appearance) is actually up slightly this year over last, and in line with 04. 3.8 this year, 3.7 last year, and 3.8 in 2004. i'm assuming that this is a good indicator that he can succeed, regardless of lineup protection.
his line drive % is also up this year, at 23.1%. the two previous years he logged in at 21.4% and 20.9% respectively. so the bright spot here is that he is at least hitting the ball hard.
his hr per outfield fly ball is the thing that is troubling to me. this year he is sitting at a very low 6.3%, as compared to 19.3% and 19.9% for the last two years. however, he has reduced his gb% this year to 5% lower than it has been for the last two years. its sitting at around 35%, so the only thing i can make of this is that he's hitting a lot of outfield flies that are getting caught instead of turning into hrs.
given all that, i'm fairly confident that he can turn it around relatively soon. his rbis should start coming in droves when/if he starts hitting, since young and matthews jr have posted good obps and slgs so far this year, so i don't believe he's short on at bats w/ runners in scoring position.
one warning though, i'm not sure that i am interpreting all of this data correctly, so take it with a grain of salt. wheres beltran's boy when you need him? he'd probably have a good idea whether or not this analysis is correct.
Thanks for the data. Those numbers sound encouraging to me...It's only a matter of time that those fly balls start turning into gappers and homers as the heat turns up in Arlington and as Teix gets stronger and more comfortable at the plate.
He's going to be fine. He may not post numbers as good as last season's, but they should be first round worthy numbers.
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by jdsun1 » Wed May 24, 2006 11:25 am 
But that hr/f% being where it is...that's especially troubling. The league average is about 11-12%. :(
how far the first rounders can fall.
