You can't put Papelbon or Chris Ray is the Turnbow '05 category. Ray was drafted in almost every league as he had the job prior to the exhibition season even starting. Papelbon was also widely drafted as there was significant question about Foulke, plus Papelbon had already opened a lot of eyes last season.
Turnbow was spotted in spring training '05 by only a few who were reading between the lines as far as the way he was being used and the evident distrust Yost/Maddux had for Mike Adams. But Adams opened the season as the closer, and there were only a few of us (pardon me while I pat myself on the back) who insisted here at the Cafe that everyone should go grab Turnbow was going to steal the job as soon as Adams blew it.
This year's candidates? I think Rodney and Baez were clearly in the "might very well end up with the job" category going into ST because of the uncertainty of those they were backing up, so I guess they can't count.
Of those who don't have the job now, I would put Rafael Soriano and Todd Coffey at the top of the list. Coffey seems to have the makeup for the job and the Reds ought to give him the shot, as Weathers/Mercker are proven more effective setting up. As for Soriano, I'm listing him because I think Guardado is getting close to being toast. I don't think his flipper is all that sound and see this job opening up...and I just don't see Putz (the current apparent #2) being good enough to keep it.