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Over/Under on David Wright's final AVG - .320

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Postby AcidRock23 » Mon Apr 17, 2006 1:37 pm

Ender wrote: LoDuca is an overrated hitting C, he's had one good offensive year.


I actually think that LoDuca knows how to hit pretty well but runs out of gas every year in June and his #s drop off thereafter and he evens out from the .300 first half to where he ends up at. He's been pretty much a lock to be a good guy to sweeten deals with or trade by the All star break for several years running now. :-D
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Postby garf112 » Mon Apr 17, 2006 1:42 pm

Well, I could understand you saying they are overrated because "people" are saying that they have the best lineup in baseball. I don't know who these "people" are, but that is ridiculous, even when Glavine is hitting. :-°

Reyes will increase his walk rate enough for him to become a serviceable OBP leadoff guy, but his speed, and normally I wouldn't say this, makes him an excellent leadoff hitter.

Lo Duca doesn't strikeout, sees a lot of pitches, and has good batting average potential.

Beltran will be fine.

Delgado and Wright speak for themselves.

I don't think anyone thinks that Cliff Floyd will hit like last year, and if he does get hurt, Victor Diaz is a pretty decent replacement.

Regarding Xavier Nady, the Padres stunted his growth by skipping him over AA in 2002. When he was returned to AAA for 2004 after spending time in the majors the year before, he hit 22 HRs in under 300 ABs. He then hit 13 HRs last year in 326 ABs for a team that has a park where home runs go to die. I don't think anybody realizes how good Xavier Nady really is. Maybe I should start a thread about him.
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Postby J.C.Fighter » Mon Apr 17, 2006 1:55 pm

Ender wrote:
garf112 wrote:
Ender wrote:Under and the Mets offense is overrated (not that it has anything to do with Wright hitting .320).


I'd like to see you elaborate on your statement that the Mets' offense is overrated? Beltran was hurt last year, Delgado is a monster, Wright is going to be a stud, Xavier Nady is very underrated, and Floyd is solid. Don't mean to hijack the thread, but that is a ridiculous statement, and an unfounded one in my opinion.


Reyes is a below average leadoff hitter
LoDuca is an overrated hitting C, he's had one good offensive year.
Beltran is injured this year~ I just don't see him having the monster year people predict
Delgado is great but his Elbow will again limit his playtime
Wright is a monster, I love him
Floyd is unlikely to repeat last year, he'll get hurt at some point
Nady is going to find himself out of the lineup again by the end of the year.
Hernandez will be a blackhole in the lineup.

I hear people calling this the best lineup in baseball blah blah blah, its not even the best lineup in the DIVISION. I'd take the Phillies lineup over this one and it doesn't come anywhere close to the Yanks lineup.


This has to be the most ridiculous post I have come across in my life...
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Postby Ender » Mon Apr 17, 2006 1:58 pm

This has to be the most ridiculous post I have come across in my life...


yes, your well thought out reasons for disagreeing have convinced me I was in error. I guess you are correct... the Mets do have the best lineup in baseball and all of the players i mentioned will probably suddenly explode into career years like everyone seems to be predicting. Lo Duca will post a .850 OPS and become a great hitting C, Floyd will be healthy and mash 40 HR's. Beltran will become a 40/40 guys like some predict and Reyes will get it and post a .350+ OPS.

You have convinced me with your great debating skills, thanks for that.
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Postby Laean » Mon Apr 17, 2006 2:04 pm

Melo255 wrote:David Wright's batting average by month last year.
.303
.284
.290
.307
.378
.283
6 at bats in October

He was remarkably consistent and never had a slump.

He had a .336 avg vs lefties and a .298 avg vs righties, .297 at home vs .315 away, .321 during the day and .298 at night.

The point? No matter where, when or who he hits against he does it incredibly well. He has no weaknesses and I heard someone say before that on chart of the 9 hitting zones, 3 high x 3 wide (think MVP '05 pitching), for a batter his worst for avg last year was middle low and that was still around .280.

The only problem he had last year was that he struck out 113 times in 575 at bats. So far this year however he has struck out a total of once in 42 at bats.

His BB/K went from 38/64 in the 1st half to 34/49 in the 2nd. He had a .409 OBP and .991 OPS in the 2nd half.

He had 29 less at bats in the 2nd half vs the 1st but hit 5 more home runs, had 14 rbis and had 3 more steals.
He is only 23 and getting better and better. The sky is the limit for this kid. I'm not going to say he can't hit .320 down the road or now.


guess you're looking at the glass half full. he IS consistent, i agree with you. i love that about him. however, he was consistently .280 to .310 last year. even with that .378 month, his season average was not even .310. i do think eventually he can hit over .320, but this season? it's possible, but in my opinion not likely. are you saying he'll consistently hit around .320 every month this year? or are you saying he'll have 2 months of .380 hitting this year with no slumps?
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Postby Dan Lambskin » Mon Apr 17, 2006 2:06 pm

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Postby hookem2003 » Mon Apr 17, 2006 5:11 pm

even, +/- a couple of points
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Postby Melo255 » Mon Apr 17, 2006 5:12 pm

Laean wrote:guess you're looking at the glass half full. he IS consistent, i agree with you. i love that about him. however, he was consistently .280 to .310 last year. even with that .378 month, his season average was not even .310. i do think eventually he can hit over .320, but this season? it's possible, but in my opinion not likely. are you saying he'll consistently hit around .320 every month this year? or are you saying he'll have 2 months of .380 hitting this year with no slumps?


The latter. I don't know if he will hit above .305 for the season but I think it's very possible that he can have a couple of months like this one so far. If he plays like he did last year, and I expect him to be better, he won't have any low end numbers to drag the overall numbers down and 2 months of .380, for example, could be enough to throw his average up over .320.
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Postby NYMetsIn2k4 » Mon Apr 17, 2006 6:12 pm

Ender wrote:
This has to be the most ridiculous post I have come across in my life...


yes, your well thought out reasons for disagreeing have convinced me I was in error. I guess you are correct... the Mets do have the best lineup in baseball and all of the players i mentioned will probably suddenly explode into career years like everyone seems to be predicting. Lo Duca will post a .850 OPS and become a great hitting C, Floyd will be healthy and mash 40 HR's. Beltran will become a 40/40 guys like some predict and Reyes will get it and post a .350+ OPS.

You have convinced me with your great debating skills, thanks for that.


Might I ask who is predicting these numbers? Ive yet to read predictions of Floyd hitting 40 this yr... nor beltran going 40/40 this season... maaaybe, just maybe your referring to their once projected ceilings at one point in time. but theres absolutely noone in their right mind making these lude predictions. realistically...

reyes will swipe 65-70 bases with a .320 obp, not terribly great but an improvement, remember hes 23

loduca will bat a solid .290 and continue to do the little things like advance reyes for the big boys... maybe hell even knock out 10 hrs and a modest 50 ribs is duable

beltran wont go 40/40... but is 30/30 out of the question? certainly not, remember guys, he did go 24-101-31, 29-105-35, 26-100-41, and 38-104-45... all in consecutive seasons b4 his terrible yr lastyr... now the pre-met 40/40 predictions may get laughed at now, but looking at that stat line, proper extrapolation would definetely land you in the 40/40 realm, but lets just go 30-100-30 and shush the critics

delgado should be in store for a nice 35-40 hr with about 115 rbis, and a .300 avg

wright will have another big yr at about 30-35 hrs, 110 rbis, 15 sbs, and roughly .310 avg

floyd can have a modest 20-25 hr, 70-80 rbi, .270 avg yr n fit in nice as a number 6 hitter

nady will look at similar numbers as mentioned about with a higher batting avg

anderson hernandez can do what he does on defense and just get the little things done one offense, clear the pitchers spot, advance runners, etc... remember again, nl teams dont hinge their success on their defensive 2nd baseman hitting number 8

these projections arent well thought out, not biased, and ive had my bold predictions shattered many times in the last 5 seasons... honestly, with these numbers, id have to say one of the top offenses in the NL for sure! and id like to say these are middle of the pack predictions, as i could see bigger numbers, but for arguments sake... prove me wrong

ps. dont tell me reyes will only swipe 63, not 65, or beltran will go 28-95-30... i mean prove me Wrong!
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Postby The_Met_Threat » Mon Apr 17, 2006 6:18 pm

Ender wrote:
This has to be the most ridiculous post I have come across in my life...


yes, your well thought out reasons for disagreeing have convinced me I was in error. I guess you are correct... the Mets do have the best lineup in baseball and all of the players i mentioned will probably suddenly explode into career years like everyone seems to be predicting. Lo Duca will post a .850 OPS and become a great hitting C, Floyd will be healthy and mash 40 HR's. Beltran will become a 40/40 guys like some predict and Reyes will get it and post a .350+ OPS.

You have convinced me with your great debating skills, thanks for that.


Ender your just banking on everyone getting hurt. That has nothing to do with an overrated or underrated offense. You look at the offense on paper, not their past injury issues. If that team batted all through the year theyd be one of the best, you cant just assume theyll get hurt.

Reyes is a fine lead off man, just needs some plate discipline but makes up for it with speed.

Loduca fine hitting catcher, maybe not hte best #2 but hell get on base and can move the runner over.

Beltran 30/30 definately not out of the question. Hes already put up last years April numbers in half the time... We could possibly see 40/40 but its very unlikely, but he could go on a few tears

Delgado its hard not to predict a 35/120

Wright is just amazing

Floyd i think will be fine 25/85 from your 6th hitter is cool with me

Nady will be surprisingly good

I dont really care about the rest of our offense.
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