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Possible Reason for Beltre's Poor Start?

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Postby nuggets » Sun Apr 16, 2006 5:30 pm

thehat wrote:There is no correlation between a player being in his walk year and career best performances. For every player who goes bonkers and puts up astounding stats before he hits the free market, there's another that does just the opposite. This is not a matter of opinion, it's a fact. Beltre was one of those who went the banner year route. Does anyone here actually think that this was simply all about the money and that he's been on cruise control since? If anything, he's pressed too hard to put up those big power numbers and has managed to really screw himself up in the process.


While I agree the last part of your statement is valid, I disagree with your claim that a player's performance and his 'walk year' are unrelated.

http://www.middlebury.edu/services/econ ... c/0507.pdf

Dawgpound 1613 wrote:C) I also agree with Yanks, etc. in that, in general, you're talking about 1 good year in 8. "One of these things is not like the other. One of these things doesn't belong." Until he even hits 30 HR again and has an OPS above .850 again, 2004 is simply a fluke. And if two weeks of WBC play is supposed to wash away 7 years of bad play, I guess I should be trading Pujols for Shelton. .200 hitters can hit .400 for a two week span - that doesn't make them .400 hitters.


It wasn't just a "good" year though, it was one of the best. And don't come back talking about face value numbers...

from this thread

Tavish wrote:
RAmst23 wrote:I'm not sure the list would change...

In the 1920's and 1930's baseball was changing, and few power hitters emerged while the rest of the league stayed pat.

By the 1930s the league had very much caught up with Gehrig and Ruth. They were still the most valuable players at their position in most of the seasons after that, but in terms of domination they were around the same level as Beltre was last season.

When looking at the players in terms of fantasy baseball a major factor that gets overlooked is that during the First Live Ball Era there were 16 total teams with no DH. A normal 12 team league nowadays would have been around 6 teams back then.

He is one real quick comparison.

9. Lou Gehrig, 1B, 1934 New York Yankees
Stats: .363 AVG, 49 HR, 165 RBI, 9 SB, 128 R, 579 AB
Looking back at the numbers, it's outright incredible that Gehrig won the AL's Triple Crown in 1934, yet finished just fifth in the MVP voting. Unfortunately, that was the year Detroit won the AL pennant, a primary reason three Tigers finished ahead of the Iron Horse in the balloting. Don't let that take away any of the luster from Gehrig's fantasy achievements, however; standings and postseason performances are irrelevant to us. He still paced the majors in batting average, homers and RBI and finished third in runs scored.


In 1934 the average of the 5 1B below Gehrig (the ones who would have been starting on the other fantasy teams in a similar depth league)

<pre>Player R HR RBI SB BA
Gehrig 128 49 165 9 0.363
League 121 30 133 7 0.339
Diff 7 19 22 2 0.034
</pre>

Here is Beltre from last season compared to the top 11 3B (according to Yahoo).

<pre>Player R HR RBI SB BA
Beltre 121 48 121 7 0.334
League 97 31 101 7 0.293
Diff 36 17 20 0 0.041
</pre>

One of these is the 9th greatest fantasy season ever. One of them isn't in the top 100. :-?


Beltre also hasn't had just one good year, 2000 and 1999 weren't 'bad'. The look like predictors of great future success, like 2004. Beltre should be considered a .290/40 HR threat for years to come.
Last edited by nuggets on Mon Apr 17, 2006 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Sun Apr 16, 2006 6:37 pm

warrick95 wrote:
suppasonic wrote:Actually, he is not playing well because he doesn't have bone spurs any more.

As is obvious, he's a real flailer at pitches. The bone spurs in 04' kept him from lunging forward because it hurt too much, leading him to wait for a pitch he wants.


Don't know a thing about whether or not it's tax issues or whatever, but I cannot believe that everybody's ignore this quality post right here!


+1!! They just need to get him some bone spurs somehow!! ;-D
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