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Updated Stat projections for Shelton?

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Re: Updated Stat projections for Shelton?

Postby bellings » Thu Apr 13, 2006 12:25 am

Madison wrote:
bellings wrote:
Madison wrote:
bellings wrote:he already was the #1 player according to the Yahoo formula.


And that is relevant.....why? :-?


The Yahoo formula (whatever it is) is definitely off at the beginning of the year, but I think that it's actually a pretty good indicator of what players have done so far. I'm just trying to make the point that this isn't your typical hot start.


Why isn't it typical? Each year someone has a hot start and winds up ranked #1 overall at Yahoo, so this year is no different. Last year it was Brian Roberts. No different than this.


I think that it's different because everyone was looking at Brian Roberts and going, "This doesn't make any sense, he's not a homerun hitter." At least with Shelton his stats aren't a complete anamoly. It's not like he's leading the league in SB's or something.
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Re: Updated Stat projections for Shelton?

Postby Madison » Thu Apr 13, 2006 12:36 am

bellings wrote:I think that it's different because everyone was looking at Brian Roberts and going, "This doesn't make any sense, he's not a homerun hitter." At least with Shelton his stats aren't a complete anamoly. It's not like he's leading the league in SB's or something.


You know you can sort all free agents (or even the entire player database) by what stat you are looking for, right?

Being ranked #1 in season at Yahoo simply means that "X player" has put up the most valuable stats so far (through a whole big week ;-7...a whole 4.9% of the season ). Last year it was Brian Roberts, who was hitting bombs and stealing bases while having a big average. This year it's Shelton due to all the bombs and high average. Basically the exact same situation.

The only thing that little "1" at Yahoo is good for, is to sell high to someone who actually believes he will continue to hit. There's usually 1 or 2 guys in every league who will overpay for someone like that, so trade him while the trading is good. His value can't get any higher.

Brad Penny is #2 overall by the way. Do you think he will actually continue to have more than 1 K per inning, win every start, hold a sub 2 ERA, and a sub 1 WHIP? Of course not, and no different than Shelton. They are hot, the goofballs at Yahoo give them a second set of rankings (for in season purposes), and people go nuts for these guys. Happens every year.

Just look at the top 10 (and I'll omit anyone that any kind of argument can be made for):

#4---Papelbon
#5---Arroyo
#6---Bonderman
#9---Westbrook
#10--Chris Ray

Do you really believe any of those guys will put up first round draft pick numbers? Of course not. No way, no how, not a chance. :-°
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Re: Updated Stat projections for Shelton?

Postby Big Pimpin » Thu Apr 13, 2006 12:38 am

Madison wrote:The only thing that little "1" at Yahoo is good for, is to sell high to someone who actually believes he will continue to hit. There's usually 1 or 2 guys in every league who will overpay for someone like that, so trade him while the trading is good. His value can't get any higher.


So Mad, I'll give you Shelton for Johan. What say you? O:-)


:-B
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Re: Updated Stat projections for Shelton?

Postby Madison » Thu Apr 13, 2006 12:40 am

Big Pimpin wrote:
Madison wrote:The only thing that little "1" at Yahoo is good for, is to sell high to someone who actually believes he will continue to hit. There's usually 1 or 2 guys in every league who will overpay for someone like that, so trade him while the trading is good. His value can't get any higher.


So Mad, I'll give you Shelton for Johan. What say you? O:-)


:-B


Wait, I'm getting the #1 guy for the #169 guy? 8-o First pick overall for a 15th rounder in a 12 team league? 8-o

Boy, that sounds like a really good deal...... ;-7







:-b :-b :-b
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Postby bellings » Thu Apr 13, 2006 12:45 am

I don't think that anyone really believes that he'll stay at number 1. (Maybe some people in public leagues..., but no one here.) I'm just saying that we shouldn't completely disregard that a week into the season, he's the #1 guy. The Cafe's position rankings have him as the 20th best 1B. I think that it's reasonable to say that he'll finish the year better than that.
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Postby Madison » Thu Apr 13, 2006 12:49 am

bellings wrote:I don't think that anyone really believes that he'll stay at number 1. (Maybe some people in public leagues..., but no one here.) I'm just saying that we shouldn't completely disregard that a week into the season, he's the #1 guy. The Cafe's position rankings have him as the 20th best 1B. I think that it's reasonable to say that he'll finish the year better than that.


The Cafe's position rankings were also done preseason. ;-)

Yahoo had Shelton at 26th overall at 1B preseason, so you can say we expected more than Yahoo did. ;-)
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Re: Updated Stat projections for Shelton?

Postby Fame Throwa » Thu Apr 13, 2006 8:30 am

Shelton seems likely to outperform his preseason projections for the rest of the season. Is he going to hit 120 homers? Of course not. But I think it's quite possible that he's a much better player than we'd imagined a few weeks ago.

I'm excited about Shelton's prospects for the rest of the season. We're talking about a 25-year-old kid who hit .332 in his minor league career. He also has a pretty good lineup around him.
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Postby Philliebuster » Thu Apr 13, 2006 8:41 am

The big difference between Brian Roberts and Chris Shelton is that they are two different people, playing on two different teams; and Roberts had those crazy contact lenses :-] . All I'm saying is that just becasue someone started off hot and fizzled last year, doesn't mean the same thing will happen again this season. Can it happen...sure. But as stated earlier, Shelton has batted for power in the minors and for a great average. I do think there is a better chance at Shelton staying solid this season, than Roberts last year; mostly because Roberts never showed that kind of power before.
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Postby Grandma's Pujol » Thu Apr 13, 2006 12:56 pm

i see a very solid year for THE HAMSTER...i think he could be the next pronk, not the next brian roberts.

after going undrafted in virtually every league two years ago, i plucked hafner out of the FA pool when he went yard twice on opening day. he went on to have a very solid year (96,28,109,.311), and had very similar stats last year (94,33,108,.305). his line the year before he emerged:

in 291 ABs....35R, 14HR, 40RBI, .254BA

Shelton's line last year:

in 388 ABs....61R, 18HR, 59RBI, .299BA

so shelton's sample size last year is 33% larger than hafner's was and if you pro-rate hafner's stats to 388 ABs, shelton's are still better as a whole than hafner's (with the exception of 0.62 HRs).

i know there are 20 brian roberts for every hafner, but i personally think shelton is for real. i'll give him 90-30-90-.300
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Postby Philliebuster » Thu Apr 13, 2006 1:08 pm

Grandma's Pujol wrote:i see a very solid year for THE HAMSTER...i think he could be the next pronk, not the next brian roberts.

after going undrafted in virtually every league two years ago, i plucked hafner out of the FA pool when he went yard twice on opening day. he went on to have a very solid year (96,28,109,.311), and had very similar stats last year (94,33,108,.305). his line the year before he emerged:

in 291 ABs....35R, 14HR, 40RBI, .254BA

Shelton's line last year:

in 388 ABs....61R, 18HR, 59RBI, .299BA

so shelton's sample size last year is 33% larger than hafner's was and if you pro-rate hafner's stats to 388 ABs, shelton's are still better as a whole than hafner's (with the exception of 0.62 HRs).

i know there are 20 brian roberts for every hafner, but i personally think shelton is for real. i'll give him 90-30-90-.300


I don' t know what you said, but I like it!
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