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today

Postby valnas » Wed Apr 12, 2006 6:34 am

I have 3 pitchers available today

Bush, Young, Escobar

I'm thinking start Young @ Florida, escobar at home vs. texas

Bench Bush at St Loius

agree ? or should I let bush give it a go?
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Postby bclay » Wed Apr 12, 2006 1:40 pm

Here's another method that I use frequently. Our league counts both wins and losses, so I use the betting lines on close calls. My cutoff is usually when the starter is -140 or better, which over the long haul will give you a good W-L percentage. Theoretically, the betting line should take everything into account (ie park, lineups, current trends, opposing pitcher) so it's pretty good over the long haul.

If you guys don't count losses, it's not quite as valuable, as it would only help with wins. Obviously, the line will provide no guidance on the ratios, although you would think the more a SP is favored, the better ratios he would have in the game. One problem with the line is that sometimes pitchers still win, (but with a score like 7-5) which is no good for the ratios.
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Postby mak1277 » Wed Apr 12, 2006 5:11 pm

bclay wrote:Here's another method that I use frequently. Our league counts both wins and losses, so I use the betting lines on close calls. My cutoff is usually when the starter is -140 or better, which over the long haul will give you a good W-L percentage. Theoretically, the betting line should take everything into account (ie park, lineups, current trends, opposing pitcher) so it's pretty good over the long haul.

If you guys don't count losses, it's not quite as valuable, as it would only help with wins. Obviously, the line will provide no guidance on the ratios, although you would think the more a SP is favored, the better ratios he would have in the game. One problem with the line is that sometimes pitchers still win, (but with a score like 7-5) which is no good for the ratios.


The other problem is that the line is not simply on the starting pitcher, but the team as a whole. Obviously, if a team is a huge favorite, you are more likely to get a win, but that certainly doesn't guarantee a good outing by the starter.
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Re: today

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Apr 12, 2006 6:01 pm

valnas wrote:I have 3 pitchers available today

Bush, Young, Escobar

I'm thinking start Young @ Florida, escobar at home vs. texas

Bench Bush at St Loius

agree ? or should I let bush give it a go?


Unless you really need the start, I'd sit Escobar and be happy with wha Young provided today.
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Postby valnas » Wed Apr 12, 2006 6:53 pm

i'm sitting bush starting esc, i jsut don't have enough everday starters to keep up in innings/k's/CG/SHO if i don't start escobar often.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Apr 13, 2006 7:29 pm

valnas wrote:i'm sitting bush starting esc, i jsut don't have enough everday starters to keep up in innings/k's/CG/SHO if i don't start escobar often.


Miss Agnes is hurt that you failed to accept her advice...not as hurt as you were by Kelvim, of course, but hurt all the same.
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