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Managing a Deep Pitching Staff

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Managing a Deep Pitching Staff

Postby valnas » Wed Apr 12, 2006 12:15 am

I'm sure there is some conventional wisdom out there on how to manage a deep pitching staff, but I want to make some rules for myself (and others perhaps) that I can stick by when my heead and heart aren't communicating. I'll lay out my league rules just as a guideline.

27 man roster, yahoo 10x10 20 team keeper league

In a league like mine every team has a mix of good and bad. I guess this should focus on "when is bad ok". I'm constantly trying to decide whether to start a bronson arroyo type against a good lineup. Coors is a given benching for most bad pitchers. But what about the yankees, red sox, cards, etc. do these teams rock lefties?righties? mash on the road/home. I'd like to set up some sort of spreadsheet that combines opposing lineup and park that will give some sort of statistical outcome on whether its a good idea. Not sure what the best statistic for this is (since a lineup produces runs, but isn't alwats the same). If something like this already exists please point me in the direction, cause trying to look at the lineup, then a site with park factors, then each batters r/l splits and home/away splits takes too long and i end up benching ervin santana before he delivers a gem. Your thoughts? I'll include my lineup if anyone wants to make a specific comment to me, but since this is leftovers try and add some general stuff. Thanks

IP, W, L, CG, SHO, SV, K, HLD, ERA, WHIP, K/BB, K/9
daily changes

SP C. Young
SP Odalis Perez
SP Kelvim Escobar
SP Matt Cain
SP B Arroyo
RP Mariano Rivera
RP Mike Gonzalez
RP Braden Looper
RP G. Mota
RP M. Wise
BN J. Seo
BN K. Favies
BN Ervin Santana
BN Dave Bush
BN Scott Olsen
DL Todd Jones
DL F. Francisco
DL W. Miller
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Postby giants! » Wed Apr 12, 2006 12:19 am

The only advice I can give you is to take each matchup at a time, spend ten minutes looking into the pitchers history against that team and in that park. Yahoo will give you this and if its necessary his splits before and after all star break, how he pitches on turf and things like that
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i guess what i really want to know is

Postby valnas » Wed Apr 12, 2006 12:23 am

how many starts do you guys usually put your pitchers in (%) wise. do you start a jake peavy 95% while a jake westbrooke 60%? How often does everyone bench their starters.
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Postby giants! » Wed Apr 12, 2006 12:37 am

I cant put percentages on it. Every decision is made based on my production that week and my opponents.
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Postby Bukoski77 » Wed Apr 12, 2006 12:59 am

Not to critique your inquiry as to strategy, which I don’t feel quite up to par on laying out a plan or format to go by, but your staff is composed of quantity and not quality.

I should hope you have easily one of the best offenses in the league, because for a 10 team league your pitching really doesn’t impress me. Plenty of your starters have high upside and sleeper potential, but I don’t see any of them as a must start on week-to-week basis.

You should do fairly adequate off just playing the match-ups week to week as you do have an arsenal of 3rd to 5th tier fantasy pitchers to work with. Except for Mariano Rivera as a must start at RP every week I just don’t see any of your staff, as must starts.

Do ½ to 1hour of research into your pitchers respective opponents and past performance each week and you should do mediocre at worst as you have so many arms to work with.
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Postby ilsa » Wed Apr 12, 2006 1:08 am

Bukoski77 wrote:Not to critique your inquiry as to strategy, which I don’t feel quite up to par on laying out a plan or format to go by, but your staff is composed of quantity and not quality.

I should hope you have easily one of the best offenses in the league, because for a 10 team league your pitching really doesn’t impress me.


Not to critique your post, but he mentioned he's in a 20 team league ;-D
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Apr 12, 2006 1:19 am

Bukoski77 wrote:Not to critique your inquiry as to strategy, which I don’t feel quite up to par on laying out a plan or format to go by, but your staff is composed of quantity and not quality.

I should hope you have easily one of the best offenses in the league, because for a 10 team league your pitching really doesn’t impress me. Plenty of your starters have high upside and sleeper potential, but I don’t see any of them as a must start on week-to-week basis.

You should do fairly adequate off just playing the match-ups week to week as you do have an arsenal of 3rd to 5th tier fantasy pitchers to work with. Except for Mariano Rivera as a must start at RP every week I just don’t see any of your staff, as must starts.

Do ½ to 1hour of research into your pitchers respective opponents and past performance each week and you should do mediocre at worst as you have so many arms to work with.


It's a 20 team league, not 10 team. I agree with your call, though that this is a staff that has no clear stand-out stud, but some decent young potential.

My league is 16 teams, so we are not too far apart.

I don't know what your rules are (IP limits? roto or H2h?) but I generally just focus on the team and the park they are playing in. I don't think there is any value in looking at the individual pitcher's histories in parks or against teams. the sample sizes are just too small to trust. I usually divide my staff into three tiers:

Studs (Halladay and Zambrano on my staff). I start them basically 100 percent of the time.

Quality pitchers--these are guys with a solid 3+ years of major league success. On your staff, I'd say that's Odalis and Escobar. I start these guys about 2/3rds of the time. I generally sit them in tough parks (Boston, Toronto, Texas, Chicago in AL/Col, Phil, SF in NL) or strong offensive teams (Boston, Yanks, Texas, Cle, Oak in the AL/SL, Mets in the NL). If they are in their home park and it's a good pitcher's park, I might start them against a strong offensive team.

Promising pitchers/lower quality pitchers--your young guys with potential. I start these guys about 50 percent of the time. They definitely start versus poor hitting teams (Seattle, Houston, Washington, Pittsburgh, KC, San Diego, Florida) and in pitcher's parks where the teams are not strong hitting teams (LAA and LAD). Other starts depend on pitching match-ups (are they going against a stud?) and focused on teams/parks not in the strong offensive category.
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yep

Postby valnas » Wed Apr 12, 2006 1:26 am

well I do have one of the top two or three offenses in my league, not worried about that. If I can have this staff finish middle of the road in all cats, I'll win the league running away. I had a few deals last year for offensive players I couldn't pass up. I gave away cc sabathia for abreu during his icy april (w/ g anderson), and later spun duke and griffey for jason bay. as a result I have an offensive lineup that needs no bench, but no dominant pitching. I'm trying to deal for a tier one starter to anchor me, but until then I have to find a way to manage an enormous staff of decent arms. I find it hard to bench some of these guys because they are so inconsistent that some of their best performances seem to come out of no where. Jeff francis last year used to pitch well in colorado but get rocked on the road. Ervin Santana seems to pitch well against top notch lineups (best outings last year were against oakland, boston, and nyy). Its just a constant catch 22. Oh well, I was just hoping to get some people opinion so that I'm not always second guessing myself and filling up the gameday forums with start or not posts.
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thanks

Postby valnas » Wed Apr 12, 2006 1:41 am

thanks gotowar. I think I need to try and tier my staff out like you said. I'll give my take on it here

SP Odalis Perez (all starts out of coors)
SP Kelvim Escobar (not away vs yanks, sox, texas)
BN Ervin Santana (no sox/yanks/texas away)
SP B Arroyo ( Sit vs Powerhouses)

SP C. Young (all home starts, good matchups away)
SP Matt Cain (in petco, at good matchups home and away)
BN J. Seo (home and petco, vs good matchups away)

BN K. Davies (good matchups only)
BN Dave Bush ( good matchups only )
BN Scott Olsen ( good matchups only )

DL W. Miller ( unknown )
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Postby Bukoski77 » Wed Apr 12, 2006 2:23 am

Crap, 20 teams. LOL, sorry guys. When it comes to the cafe I'm an absent-minded novice.

I'll stick to my initial assessment as how to handle setting the lineup with pitching match-ups.

I would tier them as

Kelvim Escobar, had decent numbers at stretches last year before most of his season was an injury wash, 2004 numbers were pretty respectable.
Odalis Perez, further removed from his last decent season than Escobar with worse performances in between.



C. Young*, escaped Texas and a 3-1 K-BB ratio is hardly a fluke after 164.2 INN last year. He could really surprise.
E. Santana, proved he could handle a season in the bigs last year. Had a few collapses that inflated his numbers but overall was surprisingly consistent. No reason to expect a regression
B. Arroyo, definitely a talented arm but his park will have more of an effect than his first 2 starts let on.
M.Cain, has decent upside which hopefully wont turn out to be false prospect build up. Except for road games VS Rockies his division pays dividends.



D. Bush, a K-BB ratio of approximately 2.5-1 spread out for two years in a row totaling 233.3 Inn. Lots of bad match-ups given his division but definatley seems to have the stuff that could give you above average numbers
J. Seo, injury a few years ago slowed his development. Apparently that respected pitching couch the Mets stole from my beloved A’s helped him learn how to be an effective pitcher without dominant heat. He still doesn’t have much K upside and numbers will probably be a by-product of home games.
K. Davies, I really don’t know too much about what his upside projects to be. Seems like he should be capable of stretches with consistently mediocre performances that while maybe not helping you over all too much contribute in a few categories and don’t burn you to bad in others.
S. Olsen, In your best case scenario he turns into that rookie pitcher who wasn’t billed as a front runner for rookie of the year but leaps ahead of several other highly touted rookie arms. He’ll be the beneficiary of enough match-ups to make a safe start periodically.



I hope my ‘computer generated buy a quote assessment’ :-] of the pitchers makes up for reading the 20 team league reference incorrect.
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