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So, when will people stop caring about Ws?

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Postby George_Foreman » Tue Apr 11, 2006 11:48 am

ukrneal wrote:
George_Foreman wrote:A couple of things:

First off, I'm not even talking about them relative to fantasy (at least not necessarily). I'm just saying that Ws have become a near-worthless stat when it comes to assessing the value of a starting pitcher, which is pretty much what they were designed to do.


This is what I disagree with. I think they are reasonably decent inidcator in most cases, even on their own (although I would never look at this one number to determine a picher's worth).

Indicator of what?? What does Oscar Villareal's 3 Ws indicate to you? What did his W from last night indicate? That he blew a lead in the 7th but Marcus Giles hit a home run in the bottom half? 'Cause that's why he got it.

There is certainly some correlation between Ws and how well a pitcher pitches, but for SPs, run support is probably just as big of a factor, and for relievers? Well, it's almost completely arbitrary.
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Postby swyck » Tue Apr 11, 2006 12:18 pm

ukrneal wrote:Wins are like the blond, bimbo stereotype we occassionally meet in life. Fun to look at and sexy as hell.

Ok, so I was reaching. But I thnk we can rail all we want at the stat, it isn't going away. That's because we are so focused on allocating the win. Which pitcher 'won' the game? Sometimes the right guy gets it, sometimes not. But I think you would find some general corellation between a pitcher's wins and overall success. It may not be as strong as others, but there will be some.

My favorite season to use as an example is Phil Niekro's 1979 season when he was 21-20. Was he good that season? 22 starts with 2 earned runs or less. 9 starts with more than 4. Over 200 K's and over 100 BB. ERA of 3.39 and 1.24 WHIP. 3rd in Wild pitches. 6 of his losses occurred when he let up 2 or less runs. 10 Occurred when he let up 4 or more runs. He let up 24 HR in his losses and 18 in his wins and no decisions combined. League ERA was 4.08 that year.

What do his stats tell you? A pretty mixed picture, which was reflected in his wins-loss record. Should he have done better? Probably. But he still deserved a minimum of about 12-16 losses that season. Even if his record had been 26-15, I don't see this as being hugely more successful, though I wonder how others might look at it.

Considering a lot of teams are scraping the barrel to get IPs from any SP, I'd consider this to be a succesful season. Why not? As you pointed out, he had plenty of quality starts and his era was well below the league average.
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Postby swyck » Tue Apr 11, 2006 12:23 pm

great gretzky wrote:I don't know why luck is so derided sometimes, as it is a fact of life in sports. Obviosuly skill is more important than luck in determining outcomes. But in any sport, the absoloute best player doesn't win all the time.

I agree with the idea of if you don't like wins, don't use it, but I don't think it wholesale sucks as a stat. Its just not perfect. Obviosuly great pitchers get saddled with bad teams. And of all the sports baseball players as individuals have less ability to win games, than say a basketball player. Bonds could hit 162 home runs a season, and the team could still fail to make the playoffs. A pitcher could win 30 and the team could still stink. I think wins are one piece of the puzzle, but most reasonable fans know at this point that on base percentage is better than batting avg, and that era/whip are better indicators of good pitching.

But the win isn't going anywhere, and it gives a rough estimate of realtive worth of pitchers, if not against other teams, at least internally within a staff.

I agree. It isn't a perfect stat, but how many of them are? There's people complaing about saves, not to mention holds. RBIs and runs are dependent on the rest of the team contributing, BA is misleading as to the quality of a player, etc.

Oh, and the last time I looked Colon had a pretty good year by anyone's standard. Decent Whip and ERA, not bad Ks. Not quite as good as Santana, but he wasn't chopped liver either.
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Postby matmat » Tue Apr 11, 2006 1:33 pm

simple, just subtract blown saves/holds from a reliever's win total...
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Postby nuggets » Tue Apr 11, 2006 2:26 pm

As old baseball minds die and starting pitchers get fewer and fewer wins while relievers get more and more, percieved value of the win stat for the player will diminish naturally over time.
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Postby great gretzky » Tue Apr 11, 2006 4:08 pm

or simply, wins from middle relievers get mentally discounted? Serisouly, who really cares? It doesn't devalue the stat for starting pitchers, it just means there is a loophole that middle relievers for some reason or another, get to exploit. I don't honestly think any middle reliever is in any danger of winning the cy young, nor do I think a middle reliever would win 20 games. How many did rincon win that one year? Wasn't it 12? That is an awful lot.

I think as it relates to starting pitchers, its fine. Its obviously stupid when relievers get to blow a game, the team gets back into it, and they "win". I honestly think they should have a "no decision" in those instances, but people wnat the stats to jibe.

But everyone knows what it really means, and as long as we keep track of it, everything's on the up and up.

As far as fantasy goes, yes you can get some cheap wins from relievers, but it has to all even out in a rough form, since it is very difficult to predict from one year to another.
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Postby bellings » Tue Apr 11, 2006 5:17 pm

The only thing that gets me angry is that the Cy Young winner is practically required to be in the top five for wins.

2005 AL
Player, Wins, K's, ERA, WHIP
Colon 21 157 3.48 1.16
Santana 16 238 2.87 0.97

Seriously, how was that even a contest?

2004 NL
Player, Wins, K's, ERA, WHIP
Clemens 18 218 2.98 1.16
Sheets 12 264 2.70 0.98

At least this is close, but Sheets wasn't close to winning the Cy. Wins are worthless when determining how good a pitcher is.
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Postby ukrneal » Wed Apr 12, 2006 1:57 am

George_Foreman wrote:
ukrneal wrote:
George_Foreman wrote:A couple of things:

First off, I'm not even talking about them relative to fantasy (at least not necessarily). I'm just saying that Ws have become a near-worthless stat when it comes to assessing the value of a starting pitcher, which is pretty much what they were designed to do.


This is what I disagree with. I think they are reasonably decent inidcator in most cases, even on their own (although I would never look at this one number to determine a picher's worth).

Indicator of what?? What does Oscar Villareal's 3 Ws indicate to you? What did his W from last night indicate? That he blew a lead in the 7th but Marcus Giles hit a home run in the bottom half? 'Cause that's why he got it.

There is certainly some correlation between Ws and how well a pitcher pitches, but for SPs, run support is probably just as big of a factor, and for relievers? Well, it's almost completely arbitrary.


It indicates nothing just now after like 5-6 innings pitched. My contention is that his win-loss record will give a general indication of his success. You seem to agree with that in the bolded part.
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Postby tgalv » Wed Apr 12, 2006 2:30 am

Philliebuster wrote:Enter the Quality Start!

Yeah, I have zero wins to date, starting five (4SPs and 1R):

Johan
Myers
Clement
Garland
Lidge

GET ME A WIN!


?? clement won his only start
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Postby CruiseJD » Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:53 am

I agree that the wins are overrated as as measuring tool of SP. The thing that pisses me off the most is the cheap MR win. In the real world it has no bearing . . . no team is going to excited because their MR got 12 wins. They know it is a meaningless stat in regards to a MR.

However, under fantasy rules a win is a win is a win. The MR "loophole" needs to be closed in fantasy leagues. The rule is causing a result at odds with the intent of the game, i.e., it rewards a bad performance by a player. Fantasy leagues should have a minimum 5 IP to earn a win . . . problem solved.
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