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So, when will people stop caring about Ws?

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Postby George_Foreman » Tue Apr 11, 2006 12:08 am

Juan Rincon had 11 Ws in 2005. As we move more and more towards the 5 or 6 inning start being the rule rather than the exception, you're going to see more relievers piling up 10 win seasons. And then 15 win seasons. And eventually, due to really odd circumstances and dumb luck, some MR is going to win 20 games. I'll grant that they'll probably have to pitch pretty well to do that, but when these guys make 60 appearances a year, it really not too absurd. I'm not saying it happens this year or the year after, but it will eventually.

And it'll just be absurd to consider that 20 game winner's year similar in any way to, say, Dontrelle Willis's 20 games won year last year. The stat just doesn't measure what it was meant to measure any more. As much as I think it's arbitrary, Quality Starts is a much more useful stat for determining which starters are useful.

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Postby number9 » Tue Apr 11, 2006 12:08 am

It's a somewhat silly stat as others have pointed out, but there's some skill in predicting win totals based on strength of lineup, etc. A balance of repeatable stats and more luck based stats probably makes fantasy leagues fun. If they were all repeatable stat categories, then the balance of the whole league could hinge on projections for the draft..
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Postby wrveres » Tue Apr 11, 2006 12:15 am

George_Foreman wrote:Juan Rincon had 11 Ws in 2005. As we move more and more towards the 5 or 6 inning start being the rule rather than the exception, you're going to see more relievers piling up 10 win seasons. And then 15 win seasons. And eventually, due to really odd circumstances and dumb luck, some MR is going to win 20 games. I'll grant that they'll probably have to pitch pretty well to do that, but when these guys make 60 appearances a year, it really not too absurd. I'm not saying it happens this year or the year after, but it will eventually.

And it'll just be absurd to consider that 20 game winner's year similar in any way to, say, Dontrelle Willis's 20 games won year last year. The stat just doesn't measure what it was meant to measure any more. As much as I think it's arbitrary, Quality Starts is a much more useful stat for determining which starters are useful.

Ehh. I'm tired.

I think we will see 20 wins out of a middle reliever sooner rather than later too. A lot of teams are going to two inning specialists already, and the three inning specialist can't be far behind. Guys like Heilman would be perfect for this. Use him once thru the lineup for two or three innings, two or three times a week ...
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Postby cards05 » Tue Apr 11, 2006 12:26 am

I completely agree with the OP here. What makes it even more frustrating is that the Cy Young is, in large part, decided by who gathers the most of this meaningless stat. If the writers ever had a chance to make a statement about the value of wins it was this past season when Roger Clemens should have been awarded the Cy Young award. That's tough to say as a cards fan, but it's true.
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Postby NikkiSixx » Tue Apr 11, 2006 12:28 am

wins are the most unpredictable category in my opinion.
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Postby thedude » Tue Apr 11, 2006 12:31 am

It might take a while for people to stop putting value in wins *cough John Kruk* , but at least they have begun looking at more important stats (like OBP and Slugging). Who knows maybe a few years from now, winshares ans VORP may become offical stats.
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Postby Xtreemes » Tue Apr 11, 2006 12:35 am

NikkiSixx wrote:wins are the most unpredictable category in my opinion.


Saves are much more unpredictable. If your on a good team most likely your wins will go up, bad team they will go down. Saves chances arent dependent on how good a team is.
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Postby jjigglers » Tue Apr 11, 2006 2:02 am

NikkiSixx wrote:wins are the most unpredictable category in my opinion.


I think I'd go with Perfect Games.
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Postby number9 » Tue Apr 11, 2006 2:06 am

Same thing happens here in Japan. Super prospect (from MLB point of view) and WBC MVP and NPB superstar Daisuke Matsuzaka had an awesome year in 2005. 2.30 ERA (okay, that's dependent on many things, but still really good), 226Ks in 215IP in 28 starts, over 20 QS (if I remember correctly), 15 CG (okay, that's excessive, but that's Japanese style relying on starters, but they only pitch once a week), 3 SHO, 1.07 WHIP, etc. But because his record was only 14-13, many Lions fans thought he didn't contribute to the team enough. Especially compared to the other "ace" (though nowhere near Matsuzaka quality) Nishiguchi who racked up a 17-5 record thanks to generous run support when he was pitching. (I calculated once, and I think Matsuzaka was getting like 2 less runs per game in run support than Nishiguchi, but when I mentioned this in Lions forum people were blaming Matsuzaka for having "bad tempo while pitching that throws off teammates hitting", yeah BS..)
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Postby reznorsboy » Tue Apr 11, 2006 8:30 am

Tell me about it. I have like 2 wins so far and my pitchers have been pitching good.
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