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Postby suppasonic » Wed Apr 05, 2006 6:09 pm

Are we forgetting that Jojima is a CATCHER and Matsui is an OUTFIELDER?

The 10 home run difference per season is nothing if you consider that.
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Postby Drunken Rhino » Wed Apr 05, 2006 6:25 pm

top Cs from last year

VMart - 20 HR
Varitek - 22 HR
Mauer - 9 HR
J. Lopez - 15 HR
I. Rodriguez - 14 HR
J. Posada - 19 HR
R. Hernandez - 12 HR

Even if Johjima doesn't hit 30 HR, not many Cs even have a realistic shot at 20 outside of Varitek, VMart and maybe Mauer.

If he hits 15 HR, drives in 75, score 75 and hits around .285, he'll be one of the top Cs for 2006.
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Postby josebach » Wed Apr 05, 2006 6:34 pm

Lets look at it a better way. In each player's last 5 yrs in the Japanese league: HR/AB
Johjima
2338 ABs
150 HR
1 HR per 15.59 ABs

Matsui
2540 ABs
204 HR
1 HR per 12.45 ABs

Matsui's first three MLB seasons:
1836 ABs
70 ABs
1 HR per 26.23ABs

12.45/26.23 = 15.59/x
x = 32.85

If Johjima has the same drop off rate that Matsui did, we can expect Johjima to have 1 HR every 32.85 ABs. This means if Johjima gets 450 ABs, we can expect about 14 Home Runs. Considering he's already hit 2 AT SAFECO, I think this is the low end of the spectrum. I think a realistic guess would be 20.

Time will tell. :-)
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Postby Yoda » Wed Apr 05, 2006 6:44 pm

suppasonic wrote:Are we forgetting that Jojima is a CATCHER and Matsui is an OUTFIELDER?

The 10 home run difference per season is nothing if you consider that.


:-? How is 10 HR not a big difference?
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Postby acsguitar » Wed Apr 05, 2006 6:46 pm

Yoda wrote:
suppasonic wrote:Are we forgetting that Jojima is a CATCHER and Matsui is an OUTFIELDER?

The 10 home run difference per season is nothing if you consider that.


:-? How is 10 HR not a big difference?


Because catchers don't hit as many bombs as outfielders
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Postby suppasonic » Wed Apr 05, 2006 7:39 pm

Yoda wrote:
suppasonic wrote:Are we forgetting that Jojima is a CATCHER and Matsui is an OUTFIELDER?

The 10 home run difference per season is nothing if you consider that.


:-? How is 10 HR not a big difference?


For the same reason Mike Piazza is the best offensive catcher ever with 400 HR, 300 less then outfield counterparts Aaron, Ruth, and Bonds.
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Postby Joe Mauer » Thu Apr 06, 2006 1:36 am

OToddWalker wrote:roy halladay and randy johnson don't pitch in the japanese leagues


Sweet Davis sig man....love the player. Thrilled he's with the Wolves now :)

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Postby HOOTIE » Thu Apr 06, 2006 2:10 am

IRL, i love the guy. The best addition by far for Seattle this year. He's very dedicated, upbeat, and very good with the pitchers so far. I didn't get him in any of my drafts, not that i didn't want him. I felt Ramon Hernandez was the C to grab this year in Camden.

I can't find the study, but Japanese players numbers using MLE (Major League Equivalents), had Johjima around .270, 15 hrs 75 rbis. I think that's close, maybe a tad more. He won't hit anywhere close to 30. I'm guessing 17-18. Remember, Japanese parks are smaller, increasing hr totals. Seattle does have a good track record with Japanase players so far. Should a person move any player? It all depends on the offer.
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Postby bigh0rt » Thu Apr 06, 2006 2:26 am

suppasonic wrote:
Yoda wrote:
suppasonic wrote:Are we forgetting that Jojima is a CATCHER and Matsui is an OUTFIELDER?

The 10 home run difference per season is nothing if you consider that.


:-? How is 10 HR not a big difference?


For the same reason Mike Piazza is the best offensive catcher ever with 400 HR, 300 less then outfield counterparts Aaron, Ruth, and Bonds.


Point. And, counterpoint.
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Postby number9 » Thu Apr 06, 2006 4:35 am

HOOTIE wrote:I can't find the study, but Japanese players numbers using MLE (Major League Equivalents), had Johjima around .270, 15 hrs 75 rbis. I think that's close, maybe a tad more. He won't hit anywhere close to 30. I'm guessing 17-18. Remember, Japanese parks are smaller, increasing hr totals. Seattle does have a good track record with Japanase players so far. Should a person move any player? It all depends on the offer.


Japanese parks used to be smaller, a couple of decades ago. There was a stadium building boom in the last 20 years, but unfortunately all but one of those stadiums are domes. And the Pacific League where Johjima played has no old stadiums that would be considered to be significantly smaller than MLB stadiums. But each team supplies its own set of official game balls (within regulation), and some are known to be juiced more than others.

Both links are a bit outdated, the Fighters have relocated to Sapporo, in the northern island of Hokkaido, to yet another newly built dome stadium, but you can get a general idea on Japanese MLEs and Japanese stadiums here:
http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/stadiums.htm
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=1330
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