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Postby jblank » Thu Mar 30, 2006 1:34 pm

I don't know, but that K rate isn't exactly promising. Pitchers with that K rate of his have to walk a fine line and things go perfectly, or their 3.30 ERA could easily be 5.30. These types of pitchers send up warning flags for me, especially when their infields have a questionable defense.
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Postby Yankees227 » Thu Mar 30, 2006 1:35 pm

I would say it that Bush has a slightly more value then Verlander this year but they are both risk/reward guys...
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Postby Yoda » Thu Mar 30, 2006 2:17 pm

jblank wrote:I don't know, but that K rate isn't exactly promising. Pitchers with that K rate of his have to walk a fine line and things go perfectly, or their 3.30 ERA could easily be 5.30. These types of pitchers send up warning flags for me, especially when their infields have a questionable defense.


To be fair though, he only has a year and a half of experience at the highest level. His minor days K rate is pretty decent:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... bush.shtml

I think there can be a lot of improvement in that department.
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Postby CHE » Thu Mar 30, 2006 3:04 pm

Hes a solid number 3/4 starter in a NL only league. I na mix he should be your 7th or 8th
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Postby jblank » Thu Mar 30, 2006 3:14 pm

Yoda wrote:
jblank wrote:I don't know, but that K rate isn't exactly promising. Pitchers with that K rate of his have to walk a fine line and things go perfectly, or their 3.30 ERA could easily be 5.30. These types of pitchers send up warning flags for me, especially when their infields have a questionable defense.


To be fair though, he only has a year and a half of experience at the highest level. His minor days K rate is pretty decent:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... bush.shtml

I think there can be a lot of improvement in that department.


How often do you see guys with "pretty decent" K rates in the minors, turn into Carlos Silva in the pros? Lots. The inverse however, is much more rare.

I'm not saying it wont or cant happen, just that I am suspicious of him considering that right now at least, he is a high contact pitcher with a questionable infield, and that makes me nervous.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Mar 30, 2006 3:32 pm

jblank wrote:
Yoda wrote:
jblank wrote:I don't know, but that K rate isn't exactly promising. Pitchers with that K rate of his have to walk a fine line and things go perfectly, or their 3.30 ERA could easily be 5.30. These types of pitchers send up warning flags for me, especially when their infields have a questionable defense.


To be fair though, he only has a year and a half of experience at the highest level. His minor days K rate is pretty decent:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... bush.shtml

I think there can be a lot of improvement in that department.


How often do you see guys with "pretty decent" K rates in the minors, turn into Carlos Silva in the pros? Lots. The inverse however, is much more rare.

I'm not saying it wont or cant happen, just that I am suspicious of him considering that right now at least, he is a high contact pitcher with a questionable infield, and that makes me nervous.


Actually, his K rate in the minors was 8.37 which is pretty good. I hear what you are saying but his MLB K rate has been 5.35. That is a huge discrepency and room for improvement.

But based on the fact that you can probably snag him very late and very cheap, the potential return is great.
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Postby jblank » Thu Mar 30, 2006 3:56 pm

I would agree with that, however, at that place in the draft, would you not rather have Jason Vargas, Ervin Santana, or a Brandon McCarthy, with arguably more upside? Not saying Bush is gonna suck or anything, I would bet on 10-12 wins, but I don't see him improving that K rate much at all, if any.

I banked on Vargas, who I think has a good chance to duplicate Bush in the win column, but with A LOT more K's.
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Postby JohnnyBenchBest Ever » Thu Mar 30, 2006 4:04 pm

I'm looking at picking him up as FA to be a 6th SP.
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Postby teddyballgamemvp » Thu Mar 30, 2006 4:14 pm

jblank wrote:I would agree with that, however, at that place in the draft, would you not rather have Jason Vargas, Ervin Santana, or a Brandon McCarthy, with arguably more upside? Not saying Bush is gonna suck or anything, I would bet on 10-12 wins, but I don't see him improving that K rate much at all, if any.

I banked on Vargas, who I think has a good chance to duplicate Bush in the win column, but with A LOT more K's.


Unless you're in a keeper league and looking at next season, I wouldn't take McCarthy.

And Santana is like a Victor Zambrano kind of pitcher-- hits and walks to go with tons of Ks. So, he gets you the K cat, but hurts you in ERA.
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Postby jblank » Thu Mar 30, 2006 4:33 pm

teddyballgamemvp wrote:
jblank wrote:I would agree with that, however, at that place in the draft, would you not rather have Jason Vargas, Ervin Santana, or a Brandon McCarthy, with arguably more upside? Not saying Bush is gonna suck or anything, I would bet on 10-12 wins, but I don't see him improving that K rate much at all, if any.

I banked on Vargas, who I think has a good chance to duplicate Bush in the win column, but with A LOT more K's.


Unless you're in a keeper league and looking at next season, I wouldn't take McCarthy.

And Santana is like a Victor Zambrano kind of pitcher-- hits and walks to go with tons of Ks. So, he gets you the K cat, but hurts you in ERA.


Maybe last year, but from everything I am reading, most are expecting marked improvement on all front from him this year. Give me the potential of Santana versus the modest projections of Bush anyday, especially in a 23-25th round pick.
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