I don't know, but that K rate isn't exactly promising. Pitchers with that K rate of his have to walk a fine line and things go perfectly, or their 3.30 ERA could easily be 5.30. These types of pitchers send up warning flags for me, especially when their infields have a questionable defense.
jblank wrote:I don't know, but that K rate isn't exactly promising. Pitchers with that K rate of his have to walk a fine line and things go perfectly, or their 3.30 ERA could easily be 5.30. These types of pitchers send up warning flags for me, especially when their infields have a questionable defense.
To be fair though, he only has a year and a half of experience at the highest level. His minor days K rate is pretty decent:
jblank wrote:I don't know, but that K rate isn't exactly promising. Pitchers with that K rate of his have to walk a fine line and things go perfectly, or their 3.30 ERA could easily be 5.30. These types of pitchers send up warning flags for me, especially when their infields have a questionable defense.
To be fair though, he only has a year and a half of experience at the highest level. His minor days K rate is pretty decent:
I think there can be a lot of improvement in that department.
How often do you see guys with "pretty decent" K rates in the minors, turn into Carlos Silva in the pros? Lots. The inverse however, is much more rare.
I'm not saying it wont or cant happen, just that I am suspicious of him considering that right now at least, he is a high contact pitcher with a questionable infield, and that makes me nervous.
jblank wrote:I don't know, but that K rate isn't exactly promising. Pitchers with that K rate of his have to walk a fine line and things go perfectly, or their 3.30 ERA could easily be 5.30. These types of pitchers send up warning flags for me, especially when their infields have a questionable defense.
To be fair though, he only has a year and a half of experience at the highest level. His minor days K rate is pretty decent:
I think there can be a lot of improvement in that department.
How often do you see guys with "pretty decent" K rates in the minors, turn into Carlos Silva in the pros? Lots. The inverse however, is much more rare.
I'm not saying it wont or cant happen, just that I am suspicious of him considering that right now at least, he is a high contact pitcher with a questionable infield, and that makes me nervous.
Actually, his K rate in the minors was 8.37 which is pretty good. I hear what you are saying but his MLB K rate has been 5.35. That is a huge discrepency and room for improvement.
But based on the fact that you can probably snag him very late and very cheap, the potential return is great.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
I would agree with that, however, at that place in the draft, would you not rather have Jason Vargas, Ervin Santana, or a Brandon McCarthy, with arguably more upside? Not saying Bush is gonna suck or anything, I would bet on 10-12 wins, but I don't see him improving that K rate much at all, if any.
I banked on Vargas, who I think has a good chance to duplicate Bush in the win column, but with A LOT more K's.
jblank wrote:I would agree with that, however, at that place in the draft, would you not rather have Jason Vargas, Ervin Santana, or a Brandon McCarthy, with arguably more upside? Not saying Bush is gonna suck or anything, I would bet on 10-12 wins, but I don't see him improving that K rate much at all, if any.
I banked on Vargas, who I think has a good chance to duplicate Bush in the win column, but with A LOT more K's.
Unless you're in a keeper league and looking at next season, I wouldn't take McCarthy.
And Santana is like a Victor Zambrano kind of pitcher-- hits and walks to go with tons of Ks. So, he gets you the K cat, but hurts you in ERA.
jblank wrote:I would agree with that, however, at that place in the draft, would you not rather have Jason Vargas, Ervin Santana, or a Brandon McCarthy, with arguably more upside? Not saying Bush is gonna suck or anything, I would bet on 10-12 wins, but I don't see him improving that K rate much at all, if any.
I banked on Vargas, who I think has a good chance to duplicate Bush in the win column, but with A LOT more K's.
Unless you're in a keeper league and looking at next season, I wouldn't take McCarthy.
And Santana is like a Victor Zambrano kind of pitcher-- hits and walks to go with tons of Ks. So, he gets you the K cat, but hurts you in ERA.
Maybe last year, but from everything I am reading, most are expecting marked improvement on all front from him this year. Give me the potential of Santana versus the modest projections of Bush anyday, especially in a 23-25th round pick.
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by jblank » Thu Mar 30, 2006 1:34 pm 
