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ICHIRO OVERRATED (LCBOY)

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Postby homerunhitter » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:36 am

I never said Ichiro was the best player ever. I simply think he is not overrated. Sure he's received the most votes for the all star game 3 years in a row, but thats because he's like Elvis Presley over in Japan.

I'd be willing to put money on Ichiro winning the batting title this year.
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Postby Guest » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:38 am

HOOTIE wrote:
The simple formula for runs created is

Hits plus Walks
Times Total Bases
Divided by (At bats plus walks)

This formula will calculate a teams actual runs scored to within 5%, nearly all the time. Sac flies are non official abs. Sac flies account for only 1% of total outs made, a very small impact even if it was used in any evaluation. The # of abs will effect total runs created, but not runs created per 27 outs.


Just curious, here is the runs created formula that I see in espn(that's the more complex one I guess):

Runs created =
[(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times (Total bases + .26[BB - IBB + HBP] + .52[SH + SF + SB])] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF)
RC27 =
Runs created per 27 outs (Estimates how many runs per game a team made up of nine of the same player would score)


Do they usually use the simple one instead or this complex one? Is that because % of SF and SH are so small so they just discount them?
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Postby HOOTIE » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:59 am

[quote= Just curious, here is the runs created formula that I see in espn(that's the more complex one I guess):

Runs created =
[(H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times (Total bases + .26[BB - IBB + HBP] + .52[SH + SF + SB])] divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH+ SF)
RC27 =
Runs created per 27 outs (Estimates how many runs per game a team made up of nine of the same player would score)


Do they usually use the simple one instead or this complex one? Is that because % of SF and SH are so small so they just discount them?[/quote]

James has several different runs created formulas, depending on the statistics available in a given year. His BB Abstract mentions the simple one i gave above, with a high accuracy rate, 90-95%. I gave the simple way. It does a pretty good job. The advanced formulas are for those who think pretty good, isnt good enough. The simple one doesnt include sb, cs, hbp, gidp, sh, sf, or k's. You could make the formula more accurate by including these, like the one in ESPN.
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Postby d » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:02 am

Thanks Hootie, that guest was me. I just forgot to login.
:-) I have learned a lot of REAL baseball stuff since I came in here.
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Postby LCBOY » Fri Jul 11, 2003 2:36 am

Wow! what have I created? There are a lot of good points made in this thread. I am honored that my name is part of the title of this thread. :-) I guess we will have to agree to disagree on the many aspects of the player that is Ichiro...

As an aside. I miss the days of the 100 basestealers. Rickey, Coleman, Raines, Leflore, Brock, etc (yes, I know LeFLore and Raines never actually did steal 100 bases but they were very close). It's just not same anymore. We get all excited when someone steals 50 bases a year. Shoot, Rickey would have that by the end of June. In 1982 when he stole 130, he had 122 steals in the first 127 games..WOW!! What kind of fantasy value would he have today? Would he be a top five pick?
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Postby thehat » Fri Jul 11, 2003 2:44 am

Put me on the side that say's Ichiro is definitely not overrated. I'll accept the argument that he may be in some fantasy leagues...but as the overall package, he is wihtout question one of the best players in the game. Let's remember that defense counts for quite a bit in the real world, and the guy is a fabulous rightfielder.
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Postby LCBOY » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:06 pm

thehat wrote:Put me on the side that say's Ichiro is definitely not overrated. I'll accept the argument that he may be in some fantasy leagues...but as the overall package, he is wihtout question one of the best players in the game. Let's remember that defense counts for quite a bit in the real world, and the guy is a fabulous rightfielder.


True, Ichiro is a great defensive outfielder but does his defense make up up for his poor OPB and SLG%. Does his defense put him up with the Bonds Pujols, Edmonds, Guererro's of the world. I just don't think it does.
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