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My draft strategy, and how things went

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My draft strategy, and how things went

Postby reenum » Sun Mar 26, 2006 3:24 pm

The draft is finally in the book, and for the first time in 3 years, I am pretty happy with where I stand right now. Over the winter, I began reading up on fantasy baseball strategy. Whatever I had been doing up to this point just was not working. My first year, I just missed finishing second. I harkened back to that time, and realized that year, I really didn't do the excessive preparation that I had been doing over the past couple of seasons. I think I was just psyching myself out to a great extent, trying to find the next rookie sensation and the sleepers. This season, I'd make my gambles late in the draft, rather than reach for guys and miss out on more consistent and established talent.

Second, I remember being really hurried when making picks in the last couple of drafts. So, this year, I decided the best thing to do would be to concentrate the first half of the draft on hitters, and then go for pitching in the later rounds. The reason for this is simple: with the steroids era now behind us, true premier offensive talent is much scarcer than pitching. So, if I can get some big bats, then I can basically concentrate on building a pitching staff over the course of the season. This cuts my work during the season pretty much in half. I remember seeing the other folks feverishly checking their draft sheets with each pick and trying to make a quick decision. I just sat back, and used the rankings from Sporting News and ESPN Magazine. Those guys dedicate their life to ranking fantasy players and being in the know, so why not trust their expertise?

So, I began and got Vlad, David Wright, Soriano, and Berkman in the first 4 rounds. Not a bad start. The next few rounds were good too, as I got Sizemore, Damon, Sexson and Podsednik. More power and steals, and I was particularly happy to get Pods this low. I think he'll be comparable to Figgins, Reyes, and Pierre and comes at a much lower price. I deviated from my strategy in Round 9 and picked Isringhausen. I needed at least one good closer to keep me respectable in saves. After that, I was able to get Vernon Wells, who is another good sleeper. The last two seasons, he's basically had no lineup protection. He should do much better with Glaus and Overbay hitting in front of and behind him.

So, from Round 11, I began concentrating on pitching. At this point, I just wanted the best value pitchers I could get. I also had holes at SS and C, and needed to fill those. So, I took Cliff Lee, who should be decent this year, and then Barmes, who would have been the NL ROY if not for that unfortunate accident. Next came Valverde, Brandon Webb, Haren, and Yorvit Torrealba. I was hoping to get Michael Barrett, but I think that Torrealba is still a good bet to hit some HRs in Coors. He was a bit of a reach in Round 16, but I didn't want to end the draft without a C. People around me were saying I should have taken Ramon Hernandez, but I differ. I think he'll put up mediocre stats in Baltimore, since he really hasn't done all that much in Oakland and SD. Round 17 brought Aaron Harang, who should be solid in all categories except wins. Round 18 netted Garrett Atkins, who should be a good fantasy 3B, since he plays in Coors and isn't in a platoon. Round 19 got me Oliver Perez. If he's even halfway back to his 2004 season, I should do pretty well on K's. He had 239 K's in 200 IPs that year. I finished things out with Joe Blanton in Round 20. I'll probably end up dropping him.

So, I have one of the best, if not the best, lineups in the league this year. Now, I just have to build up my pitching staff. It should be a much better season than the past two.
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Postby giants! » Sun Mar 26, 2006 3:41 pm

I dont see that team being so great. Assuming a 5 by 5, this team will finish towards the bottom. Your pitching is downright terrible, at least get some solid sleepers towards the end of the draft. Torrealba over Hernandez, what the hell,I dont understand your point in that he did nothing in sd(he hit very well last year) and oakland, which are both bad parks and lineups, to a good park this year in camden yards. Barmes is around the number 10 ss, and never really recovered from his injury. Add in the fact that your lacking power, I dont like your chacnes this year
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Postby bleach168 » Sun Mar 26, 2006 3:41 pm

Good luck.
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Postby The Jury » Sun Mar 26, 2006 3:42 pm

Not to be critical, as that was an interesting read for me on this boring day, but I wouldn't have taken Izzy as my first pitcher. The most important requirement of closers, IMO, is the saves.. and there are cheaper closers who tend to be given more save opps: the Giants, Chi Sox, D-Rays, Rangers, Brewers, and Indians had more save opps than the Cards last year, and those closers are often among the last ones to be taken in drafts.
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Postby tgalv » Sun Mar 26, 2006 4:15 pm

hope it isn't a roto league
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Postby Pablo975 » Sun Mar 26, 2006 6:44 pm

Although I agree with the pitching assesment, I disagree on the power issue, giants! Or were you refering to Barmes and/or Torrealbba not having power?

He has Vlad, Wright, Soriano, Berkman, and Sexson....all of whom are likely to hit 30+ HRs this year, on the low side. Add in Sizemore and Damon who are each able to get 15+ and his power is pretty set.

But, finding a few sleeper pitchers should be a top priority for him and a backup C (I don't believe in Torrealba) and a SS to swap in for Barmes when he's on the road.
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Re: My draft strategy, and how things went

Postby TheYanks04 » Sun Mar 26, 2006 6:54 pm

reenum wrote:The draft is finally in the book, and for the first time in 3 years, I am pretty happy with where I stand right now. Over the winter, I began reading up on fantasy baseball strategy. Whatever I had been doing up to this point just was not working. My first year, I just missed finishing second. I harkened back to that time, and realized that year, I really didn't do the excessive preparation that I had been doing over the past couple of seasons. I think I was just psyching myself out to a great extent, trying to find the next rookie sensation and the sleepers. This season, I'd make my gambles late in the draft, rather than reach for guys and miss out on more consistent and established talent.

Second, I remember being really hurried when making picks in the last couple of drafts. So, this year, I decided the best thing to do would be to concentrate the first half of the draft on hitters, and then go for pitching in the later rounds. The reason for this is simple: with the steroids era now behind us, true premier offensive talent is much scarcer than pitching. So, if I can get some big bats, then I can basically concentrate on building a pitching staff over the course of the season. This cuts my work during the season pretty much in half. I remember seeing the other folks feverishly checking their draft sheets with each pick and trying to make a quick decision. I just sat back, and used the rankings from Sporting News and ESPN Magazine. Those guys dedicate their life to ranking fantasy players and being in the know, so why not trust their expertise?

So, I began and got Vlad, David Wright, Soriano, and Berkman in the first 4 rounds. Not a bad start. The next few rounds were good too, as I got Sizemore, Damon, Sexson and Podsednik. More power and steals, and I was particularly happy to get Pods this low. I think he'll be comparable to Figgins, Reyes, and Pierre and comes at a much lower price. I deviated from my strategy in Round 9 and picked Isringhausen. I needed at least one good closer to keep me respectable in saves. After that, I was able to get Vernon Wells, who is another good sleeper. The last two seasons, he's basically had no lineup protection. He should do much better with Glaus and Overbay hitting in front of and behind him.

So, from Round 11, I began concentrating on pitching. At this point, I just wanted the best value pitchers I could get. I also had holes at SS and C, and needed to fill those. So, I took Cliff Lee, who should be decent this year, and then Barmes, who would have been the NL ROY if not for that unfortunate accident. Next came Valverde, Brandon Webb, Haren, and Yorvit Torrealba. I was hoping to get Michael Barrett, but I think that Torrealba is still a good bet to hit some HRs in Coors. He was a bit of a reach in Round 16, but I didn't want to end the draft without a C. People around me were saying I should have taken Ramon Hernandez, but I differ. I think he'll put up mediocre stats in Baltimore, since he really hasn't done all that much in Oakland and SD. Round 17 brought Aaron Harang, who should be solid in all categories except wins. Round 18 netted Garrett Atkins, who should be a good fantasy 3B, since he plays in Coors and isn't in a platoon. Round 19 got me Oliver Perez. If he's even halfway back to his 2004 season, I should do pretty well on K's. He had 239 K's in 200 IPs that year. I finished things out with Joe Blanton in Round 20. I'll probably end up dropping him.

So, I have one of the best, if not the best, lineups in the league this year. Now, I just have to build up my pitching staff. It should be a much better season than the past two.



Cl Lee, Webb and Haren as your aces. Torrealba over R. Hernandez?...oh my. Oliver Perez and Harang added to the rest of your staff. You are going to get smoked imo. Iam all for hitting over pitvhing, but that is excessive in the extreme and a step backwards imo.

I can see letting closers go to the teen rounds, but you can't let your best SPs be Webb and Haren.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Sun Mar 26, 2006 7:36 pm

I don't mind Webb and Haren as aces as much as being in a position where you have to depend on OPerez for anything. I was thinking of going for Webb 'first' as well but chickened out and went w/ <--------CZam on several teams. :-D OPerez torched me last year though so I would be leery of doing anything other than stashing him on a bench as maybe a #6 guy to put in occasionally or use more IF he turns out to be decent. Similarly, Izzy is VERY dependable but given the Cards O, I think that he loses some save opps in blowouts and does have some injury history that's also a bit scary in your main closer. A riskier guy w/o the medical file at a lower cost seems a bit tastier to me.
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Postby Iconoclastic » Sun Mar 26, 2006 8:23 pm

I am experimenting with a very similar strategy in one of my 12 team 5x5 roto leagues this year. Years past I noticed that all my winning teams went hitting heavy early in the draft while my losing teams had at least a couple aces in the top 10 rounds, who usually got hurt or blew up. So instead of my old strategy of a balanced team and taking best player available, in this draft I decided to fill out my lineup and closers before even touching a SP. Here's how it went:

Round Player
1 Miguel Cabrera
2 Carl Crawford (a steal in the 2nd round)
3 Aramis Ramirez (finally got my favorite player on one of my teams)
4 Todd Helton
5 Marcus Giles
6 Carlos Lee (a steal in the 6th round)
7 Joe Mauer (arguable)
8 Matt Holliday
9 Julio Lugo
10 Eddie Guardado
11 Jose Valverde
12 Armando Benitez
13 Mike Gonzalez (4 mid-tier closers in a row)
14 Danny Haren (both Haren and Escobar I project mid 3 ERA and 1.2 WHIP with close to 200ks)
15 Kelvim Escobar
16 Luis Gonzalez (backup every single position other than C which is a waste)
17 Jay Gibbons (needed one more power backup and I'll take his .280 90 25 100)
18 Brad Penny
19 Erik Bedard
20 Jae Seo
21 Chien Ming Wang

I actually have a system I use to stream SP off waivers with and over the course of a season I get about 3.8 ERA and 1.25 WHIP out of these WW pickups. So with them and a few of my undervalued SP panning out I figure to dominate offense and be average in pitching, good enough to win any league.
[b]Bold Predictions:[/b]

Grady Sizemore will have more value than Jason Bay regardless of draft position

Aramis Ramirez in 155 G will hit over .300 40 HR 110 RBIs

Brian McCann will have more value than Jorge Posada regardless of draft position
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Postby korwin » Sun Mar 26, 2006 10:24 pm

F. Liriano (Min - SP)
D. Cabrera (Bal - SP)

Those two have potential for high k's, low whip, low era
or
high k's, high whip and high era.

with your staff u need to put them on your bench in case of the former. your team might have a hard time winning some pitching categories.

also podsednik is a waste. Put a power hitter at your UTIL. You should beable to win in most of the weeks with out him.
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