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Finding good pitchers on waivers...

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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Mar 24, 2006 1:34 am

Grouperman941 wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:So, the third thing I will look at to get a true gauge of a pitcher is their GB/FB ratio.


Where do you get this during the season? Or are you looking at historicals?


Historical. GB/FB is a long term skill a pitcher has. Hardball Times has it during the season, bit I'd just be careful about using it.
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Postby quitesanemax » Fri Mar 24, 2006 9:52 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
tgalv wrote:i don't think gb/fb is a very good stat to look at.


Why not?


I don't know, what he said about ground balls makes a little sense, but still, I look at that list from last year... the link that number9 sent. Webb, Westbrook, and Lowe are up on the top of the list. These are not pitchers I'd think of as great pitchers. I don't even think some of the great pitchers are on that list, which means they must have a bad G/F. But they are still great pitchers. Prior is below 1. A good pitcher can make it so that a hitter is unble to get a direct hit on the ball. This ball is less likely to go out of the park. G/F doesn't even consider pitchers who strikeout a lot of batters. Not sure I like that stat... but then, I don't have all that much experience with it. so what do I know?
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Postby Grouperman941 » Fri Mar 24, 2006 10:29 am

quitesanemax wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
tgalv wrote:i don't think gb/fb is a very good stat to look at.


Why not?


I don't know, what he said about ground balls makes a little sense, but still, I look at that list from last year... the link that number9 sent. Webb, Westbrook, and Lowe are up on the top of the list. These are not pitchers I'd think of as great pitchers.


But the O/P is about finding potential on the WW. If you can spot someone whose stats are not great who is improving (maybe lowering walk rate) and has a good GB/FB, you might be onto something.
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Postby Yoda » Fri Mar 24, 2006 10:36 am

tgalv wrote:i don't think gb/fb is a very good stat to look at.


It absolutely is a good stat to look at. The more FB you give up, the increased chance you will give up a HR.

To make it easy for me to search, I tend to sort the waivers by WHIP. Then I look at IP, K, ERA, etc.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Mar 25, 2006 2:18 am

quitesanemax wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
tgalv wrote:i don't think gb/fb is a very good stat to look at.


Why not?


I don't know, what he said about ground balls makes a little sense, but still, I look at that list from last year... the link that number9 sent. Webb, Westbrook, and Lowe are up on the top of the list. These are not pitchers I'd think of as great pitchers. I don't even think some of the great pitchers are on that list, which means they must have a bad G/F. But they are still great pitchers. Prior is below 1. A good pitcher can make it so that a hitter is unble to get a direct hit on the ball. This ball is less likely to go out of the park. G/F doesn't even consider pitchers who strikeout a lot of batters. Not sure I like that stat... but then, I don't have all that much experience with it. so what do I know?


Well, the point is that you do not look at any single stat in making your choice. You need to look at all three together. If you find a pitcher with a good G/F rate AND a good K rate AND a good BB rate, then you are good. If a pitcher has an extremely high K rate, like Pedro, Prior, Santana, then G/F rate doesn't matter much. But, you are also not likely to find guys like that on waivers!

Instead we are talking about guys striking out 5.5 to 7 per 9. If you find someone like that with a good G/F and low (under 3) BB/9, that's not a bad choice.
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Postby reiser » Sat Mar 25, 2006 7:48 am

Zito is God wrote:After reading Moneyball I think I actually overstate how important K/9 and K/BB ratios are...if thats possible. I honestly think I have become obsessed with those two statistics in FFB.


That's funny...after reading Moneyball I look at K/9 almost exclusively!
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Postby olympia0731 » Sat Mar 25, 2006 9:39 am

I use whip, and K/9. Perlicks thread is amazing though!!!!
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Postby The Jury » Sat Jul 15, 2006 2:42 pm

One thing that I don't think has been pointed out here is splits. This is probably the single most important thing to look at when searching for waiver wire goodies.

It takes some time for a pitcher's overall numbers to recover from some brutal performances, but you don't need to care about what a guy has done earlier this year. You only need to assess what he is doing now and what you project him to do for the rest of year.
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Re: Finding good pitchers on waivers...

Postby ordinarygenius » Sat Jul 15, 2006 6:57 pm

[quote="quitesanemax"]The obvious stats like Wins, Losses, and ERA can be deceiving.

I have been told that it is best to look at their WHIP and BAA. Usually, when I look at a pitcher's WHIP, I consider under 1.15 good, and absolutely won't touch a pitcher with a WHIP over 1.25.

As far as BAA goes, what is considered good? I usually look at under .250 as pretty good. What should be a cutoff BAA for not picking up pitchers?

Is there any other advice you can give, as far as what to look for in a pitcher?

Is there a different strategy as far as between SPs and RPs, besides the obvious ones...

Thanks.[/quote]

You can't really go with absolute numbers on this matter. It all depends on how many players are taken in a league.

But if you “absolutely won't touch” a pitcher with a WHIP over 1.25 and can live with it, you must be in an extremely shallow league. Only a dozen MLB regular starters fill that bill.
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Postby johnsamo » Sat Jul 15, 2006 7:30 pm

I like to look for a pitcher on a good to average team that's facing KC or Pittsburgh. Might just get one start before I drop him, but a win is likely.
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