Finding good pitchers on waivers... - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Finding good pitchers on waivers...

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby OneLoveBoomer » Thu Mar 23, 2006 9:06 pm

Look if playing the waiver-wire game is your plan (it's often mine too), the most important component is the match-up for any particular day.

Once the season starts up, Perlick runs a thread in the "Who to Start/Bench" section and he does a stellar job at checking out matchups and predicting good starts.

;-D
OneLoveBoomer
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 6184
(Past Year: 2)
Joined: 11 Sep 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The offseason.

Postby perlick29 » Thu Mar 23, 2006 10:02 pm

OneLoveBoomer wrote:Look if playing the waiver-wire game is your plan (it's often mine too), the most important component is the match-up for any particular day.

Once the season starts up, Perlick runs a thread in the "Who to Start/Bench" section and he does a stellar job at checking out matchups and predicting good starts.

;-D


thanks for the love, I wont have to shamelessly plug myself.

Yep, I'll be running the waiver wire start list this year. Here are the things like look at when telling you guys who to pick up:

1)Potential Pitcher's overall talent- This is important in the first few months because I will almost never recommend replacement level talent. I like LIMA guy's who can give you the opportunity for a 6k start. I usually recommend rookie callups since the league hasn;t seen them yet, and I usually have a good idea of what kind of prospect they are come September.

2) Recent history- If a pitcher has had a recent run of quality starts, he is a good bet to continue. Bruce Chen was great at this last year because it seemed he was a QS machine. Those picks are more prevelant in July/August/September since we'll have a lot more history to make the determination.

3)Opponent- It was funny but almost everyday I would recommend pitchers against the World Champion White Sox. They just couldn't score runs no matter how good they were pitching wise. This is important to take a look at. See in the last week how many runs per game the opposing team has been scoring to see if their bats have been quiet. That or see if the team's name is the Colorado Rockies and they are playing on the road.

4)Potential Weaknesses- No pitcher will have a 100% chance to throw a gem so you have to evaluate what could go wrong. The problem I found with youngsters like Matt Cain and other guys is that at the big league level they have trouble with walks from time to time. This is why if there is a good OBP team like the A's I wont be as quick to recommend them.

There are more factors as well, but I have to have some secrets if I am going to be successful. Everyone please feel free to check out my daily comentary in the Who to Start/Bench forum. The thread is as yet unnamed but MAdison will change the thread out so we can start a new. I was quite successful last year, as evidence by people giving me feedback on how they were rocketting up thier league standings. Other people generously contributed making sopme picks of their own. Suggestions are welcome. Hope to see you all there during the baseball year as we pick off the competition together using up those spare innings. ;-D
Image
Forget the man crush. I drop what I'm doing to watch Zack Greinke pitch.
perlick29
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
EditorCafeholicCafe WriterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafecasterPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 4810
Joined: 10 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: praising the almighty Baseball Prospectus

Postby Grouperman941 » Thu Mar 23, 2006 10:23 pm

To find guys to start watching, I look at K, K/9. and BAA. High bb/9 keeps them off the list. I look at YTD but also last month and last week. YTD or last month ERA is useful but can be deceiving. I also sort free agents by IP and see if any new names pop up (someone I'd missed earlier).
Be excellent to each other.
Grouperman941
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Cafeholic
Posts: 2079
Joined: 2 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Rays Country

Postby Havok1517 » Thu Mar 23, 2006 10:45 pm

MWEIR also shamelessly plugs Blue Jay pitchers every week and it worked out well for him last year :-) just messing with you MWeir.
Havok1517
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe Writer
Posts: 8474
(Past Year: 103)
Joined: 8 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby quitesanemax » Thu Mar 23, 2006 10:45 pm

Thanks for all the excellent advice. I think I definately have a starting point. I will incorporate all of the advice into a fool proof plan to take over my fantasy baseball league, and rule the world!!!! Or something like that... anyway, Thanks.

Perlick, somehow I missed your thread last year. This might be why I didn't make it to the finals. I actually made it to the semi-finals, but it was actually like the finals, because everyone knew whoever won that one was going to go on to win the finals. And he did. I lost by 4 ks. On that last day, C. Zambrano pitched a complete game, but only got 1 k.

Shouldn't complain I guess. I didn't do bad for my rookie year.

Anyway, I will be sure not to miss the thread this year!! Thanks!
quitesanemax
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2084
Joined: 8 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Boston, MA.

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Mar 23, 2006 10:59 pm

I think you definitely want to look at K/9 and BB/9, but I think you should ignore BAA. Basically, anything that involves hits is highly dependent on both luck and the defense behind the pitcher.

The sabermetric analysis of pitching suggests that pitchers have the greatest influence on BB, K, and HR. But, the more recent analysis shows that there's some flukiness in whether a FB becomes a homer, and what pitchers control is not whether or not they give up HRs, but their tendency to give up FB.

So, the third thing I will look at to get a true gauge of a pitcher is their GB/FB ratio. Elite pitchers are almost always above average in those three areas of BB/9, K/9, and GB/FB. If you can avoid free passes, dominate hitters with the strikeout, and keep the ball on the ground, then you are not going to have a high WHIP or ERA.
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby Grouperman941 » Thu Mar 23, 2006 11:17 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:So, the third thing I will look at to get a true gauge of a pitcher is their GB/FB ratio.


Where do you get this during the season? Or are you looking at historicals?
Be excellent to each other.
Grouperman941
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Cafeholic
Posts: 2079
Joined: 2 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Rays Country

Postby number9 » Fri Mar 24, 2006 12:35 am

ESPN's pretty good
http://tinyurl.com/bcyoq
number9
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 446
Joined: 2 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: far far away

Postby tgalv » Fri Mar 24, 2006 12:59 am

i don't think gb/fb is a very good stat to look at.
tgalv
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 696
Joined: 12 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: MA

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Mar 24, 2006 1:29 am

tgalv wrote:i don't think gb/fb is a very good stat to look at.


Why not?
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: footballisbetter.com and 9 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Friday, Apr. 18
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Toronto at Cleveland
(2:20 pm)
LA Angels at Detroit
(7:05 pm)
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
(7:05 pm)
St. Louis at Washington
(7:05 pm)
Miami at Miami
(7:08 pm)
indoors
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Seattle at Seattle
(7:10 pm)
Atlanta at NY Mets
(7:10 pm)
Baltimore at Boston
(7:10 pm)
Chi White Sox at Texas
(8:05 pm)
Minnesota at Kansas City
(8:10 pm)
Philadelphia at Colorado
(8:40 pm)
Houston at Oakland
(10:05 pm)
Arizona at LA Dodgers
(10:10 pm)
San Francisco at San Diego
(10:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact