Finding good pitchers on waivers...

[OneLoveBoomer]

Look if playing the waiver-wire game is your plan (it's often mine too), the most important component is the match-up for any particular day.

Once the season starts up, Perlick runs a thread in the "Who to Start/Bench" section and he does a stellar job at checking out matchups and predicting good starts.

[perlick29]

Look if playing the waiver-wire game is your plan (it's often mine too), the most important component is the match-up for any particular day.

Once the season starts up, Perlick runs a thread in the "Who to Start/Bench" section and he does a stellar job at checking out matchups and predicting good starts.

thanks for the love, I wont have to shamelessly plug myself.

Yep, I'll be running the waiver wire start list this year. Here are the things like look at when telling you guys who to pick up:

1)Potential Pitcher's overall talent- This is important in the first few months because I will almost never recommend replacement level talent. I like LIMA guy's who can give you the opportunity for a 6k start. I usually recommend rookie callups since the league hasn;t seen them yet, and I usually have a good idea of what kind of prospect they are come September.

2) Recent history- If a pitcher has had a recent run of quality starts, he is a good bet to continue. Bruce Chen was great at this last year because it seemed he was a QS machine. Those picks are more prevelant in July/August/September since we'll have a lot more history to make the determination.

3)Opponent- It was funny but almost everyday I would recommend pitchers against the World Champion White Sox. They just couldn't score runs no matter how good they were pitching wise. This is important to take a look at. See in the last week how many runs per game the opposing team has been scoring to see if their bats have been quiet. That or see if the team's name is the Colorado Rockies and they are playing on the road.

4)Potential Weaknesses- No pitcher will have a 100% chance to throw a gem so you have to evaluate what could go wrong. The problem I found with youngsters like Matt Cain and other guys is that at the big league level they have trouble with walks from time to time. This is why if there is a good OBP team like the A's I wont be as quick to recommend them.

There are more factors as well, but I have to have some secrets if I am going to be successful. Everyone please feel free to check out my daily comentary in the Who to Start/Bench forum. The thread is as yet unnamed but MAdison will change the thread out so we can start a new. I was quite successful last year, as evidence by people giving me feedback on how they were rocketting up thier league standings. Other people generously contributed making sopme picks of their own. Suggestions are welcome. Hope to see you all there during the baseball year as we pick off the competition together using up those spare innings.

[Grouperman941]

To find guys to start watching, I look at K, K/9. and BAA. High bb/9 keeps them off the list. I look at YTD but also last month and last week. YTD or last month ERA is useful but can be deceiving. I also sort free agents by IP and see if any new names pop up (someone I'd missed earlier).

[Havok1517]

MWEIR also shamelessly plugs Blue Jay pitchers every week and it worked out well for him last year :-) just messing with you MWeir.

[quitesanemax]

Thanks for all the excellent advice. I think I definately have a starting point. I will incorporate all of the advice into a fool proof plan to take over my fantasy baseball league, and rule the world!!!! Or something like that... anyway, Thanks.

Perlick, somehow I missed your thread last year. This might be why I didn't make it to the finals. I actually made it to the semi-finals, but it was actually like the finals, because everyone knew whoever won that one was going to go on to win the finals. And he did. I lost by 4 ks. On that last day, C. Zambrano pitched a complete game, but only got 1 k.

Shouldn't complain I guess. I didn't do bad for my rookie year.

Anyway, I will be sure not to miss the thread this year!! Thanks!

[GotowarMissAgnes]

I think you definitely want to look at K/9 and BB/9, but I think you should ignore BAA. Basically, anything that involves hits is highly dependent on both luck and the defense behind the pitcher.

The sabermetric analysis of pitching suggests that pitchers have the greatest influence on BB, K, and HR. But, the more recent analysis shows that there's some flukiness in whether a FB becomes a homer, and what pitchers control is not whether or not they give up HRs, but their tendency to give up FB.

So, the third thing I will look at to get a true gauge of a pitcher is their GB/FB ratio. Elite pitchers are almost always above average in those three areas of BB/9, K/9, and GB/FB. If you can avoid free passes, dominate hitters with the strikeout, and keep the ball on the ground, then you are not going to have a high WHIP or ERA.

[Grouperman941]

So, the third thing I will look at to get a true gauge of a pitcher is their GB/FB ratio.

Where do you get this during the season? Or are you looking at historicals?

[number9]

ESPN's pretty good
http://tinyurl.com/bcyoq

[tgalv]

i don't think gb/fb is a very good stat to look at.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

i don't think gb/fb is a very good stat to look at.

Why not?