Look if playing the waiver-wire game is your plan (it's often mine too), the most important component is the match-up for any particular day.
Once the season starts up, Perlick runs a thread in the "Who to Start/Bench" section and he does a stellar job at checking out matchups and predicting good starts.
thanks for the love, I wont have to shamelessly plug myself.
Yep, I'll be running the waiver wire start list this year. Here are the things like look at when telling you guys who to pick up:
1)Potential Pitcher's overall talent- This is important in the first few months because I will almost never recommend replacement level talent. I like LIMA guy's who can give you the opportunity for a 6k start. I usually recommend rookie callups since the league hasn;t seen them yet, and I usually have a good idea of what kind of prospect they are come September.
2) Recent history- If a pitcher has had a recent run of quality starts, he is a good bet to continue. Bruce Chen was great at this last year because it seemed he was a QS machine. Those picks are more prevelant in July/August/September since we'll have a lot more history to make the determination.
3)Opponent- It was funny but almost everyday I would recommend pitchers against the World Champion White Sox. They just couldn't score runs no matter how good they were pitching wise. This is important to take a look at. See in the last week how many runs per game the opposing team has been scoring to see if their bats have been quiet. That or see if the team's name is the Colorado Rockies and they are playing on the road.
4)Potential Weaknesses- No pitcher will have a 100% chance to throw a gem so you have to evaluate what could go wrong. The problem I found with youngsters like Matt Cain and other guys is that at the big league level they have trouble with walks from time to time. This is why if there is a good OBP team like the A's I wont be as quick to recommend them.
There are more factors as well, but I have to have some secrets if I am going to be successful. Everyone please feel free to check out my daily comentary in the Who to Start/Bench forum. The thread is as yet unnamed but MAdison will change the thread out so we can start a new. I was quite successful last year, as evidence by people giving me feedback on how they were rocketting up thier league standings. Other people generously contributed making sopme picks of their own. Suggestions are welcome. Hope to see you all there during the baseball year as we pick off the competition together using up those spare innings.