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R Howard...

Postby OneLoveBoomer » Wed Mar 22, 2006 10:07 pm

The guy just hit his 9th home run in S.T.

My question is ... where should this guy be in the draft. I'm feeling a need to bump him up in the ranks significantly.
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Postby tal1286 » Wed Mar 22, 2006 10:16 pm

I wouldn't bump him up too far. I would be encouraged by these stats and maybe bump him up a spot or two or three, but some random guy you've never heard of leads the league in all-time Spring Training HRs so don't put too much stock in it.
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Postby acsguitar » Wed Mar 22, 2006 10:43 pm

I'd keep him the same. Everyone's predictions seem to be way high. so Keep him where he is.
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Postby stikmata » Wed Mar 22, 2006 10:43 pm

i wouldn't label Howard as "some radom guy you've never heard of "... he was the NL rookie of the year last year and didn't really start playing fulltime untill july
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Postby TheBayBergaler » Wed Mar 22, 2006 10:54 pm

Howard's gonna 'get some' in that bandbox Philli plays in.. I'm thinking

.285
39 hrs
119 rbi
.380 obp

That conservatively.. Could increase hrs, and rbi's... also could lose some in the avg...but a great pick this season in my book.
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Postby Blade » Wed Mar 22, 2006 11:09 pm

I watched him play Atlanta today, and he is for real. he does not just swing for the fences every time like a Dunn or Soriano. He has plate discipline and a sweet stroke. 35 dingers at the least this season for Howard.
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Postby Armadillo Fury » Wed Mar 22, 2006 11:14 pm

He strikes out way too much for him to have a realistic chance of repeating last year's .288 BA. Actually, I think he might have trouble breaking .270. I would temper my expectations accordingly.
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Postby Melo255 » Wed Mar 22, 2006 11:32 pm

TheBayBergaler wrote:Howard's gonna 'get some' in that bandbox Philli plays in.. I'm thinking

.285
39 hrs
119 rbi
.380 obp

That conservatively.. Could increase hrs, and rbi's... also could lose some in the avg...but a great pick this season in my book.


That's conservative? I'd say that's about the absolute max if everthing goes perfectly. People constantly make the mistake of just multiplying a young players stats by 2 or 3 and assume that's what to expect but that's usually not how it works. Just like pitchers get hit harder the second time facing an offense, hitters are often at a big disadvantage once pitchers get a couple of looks at them and realize their weaknesses. Howard is a great power hitter but he has only had a half season in the majors and to expect those kinds of numbers in his first full season is just hopeful optimism. Knock down all of those numbers by a few and hope he even gets there.
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Postby TheBayBergaler » Wed Mar 22, 2006 11:49 pm

If your gonna knock down anything...knock down his AVG... I could see that.

The whole adjustment thing is true... But, his big weakness has already been identified (against Lefty's)...and this was used against him part of last season. So now Howard has to adjust...he had to have been working on it in the offseason. Anybody know how he's been doing this spring against Lefty's?

I say the homers come easily and if he figures out Lefty's...Look out! You may be looking at the next National League HR champ.
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Postby wurthit » Thu Mar 23, 2006 12:01 am

he will have a good year. dont think he should be in the top 5 rankings but top 7 or so. i would love to get him for an utl player.
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