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Curtis Granderson under the radar

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Postby warrick95 » Mon Mar 27, 2006 5:37 pm

I think statistical analysis is overrated and that's that. I guess you dig that kind of stuff. Can't do anything about that.

Patterson's gonna run like crazy if he hits 8th, since he has the 9 hitter and then leadoff coming up after him. On the other hand, Granderson has the heart of the order after him, so he will steal less. In addition, what you still don't seem to comprehend is that stealing bases will be tougher at the MLB level because you need to be smart AND have speed. In the minors, one of the two would be enough. Hell, Adam Dunn stole 24 bases at A-ball in 2000. It's too easy.

Anyway, we'll never agree. Why don't we settle this with a nice Cafe Sig bet...I'll take Corey Patterson to finish higher in final Yahoo ranking (standard 5X5) than Curtis Granderson. Both have to play in at least 140 games, though (protection for injury).
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Mar 27, 2006 5:42 pm

nuggets wrote:Thanks for the info Agnes. Can you direct us toward an online runs according to lineup position and team source?


I use ESPN's team sortables for that. One of the pulldowns is by lineup position.

nuggets wrote:I'm not sold on Granderson's speed to the extent you are and I'm wondering how hitting in the #1 spot will effect his HR total. A nice SB and power progression is occuring with Granderson, but I'm not sure he'll keep improving to the degree in which you belive. Thanks for the help on the Runs and RBI info.

I'm going with 19/15 and a decent average so that I don't get burnt because I respect the point about a more polished college player putting up better numbers in the minors than non-college players. Although the spot in which I'd be willing to draft him would represent a better projection because of my projection and draft style. I hope that makes sense.


One area where I do like to rely on scouting info is whether or not a guy really works at getting better. These two players offer a nice contrast on that. All you read about Patterson is how he won't listen to coaches and address his weaknesses. All you hear about Granderson is how much he works at getting better. And, given that I see that verified in the stats--steady progress versus complete and total inconsistency--I'll project Granderson towards the top end of the age/performance profile and Patterson towards the bottom end.

Granderson is part of a group of 5 OFs that I'll rotate through 3-4 slots in OF and UTIL. I don't know why people tend to undervalue guys that basically are + in all 5 categories, because they have a hell of a lot more value that some guy that only contributes in 1.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Mar 27, 2006 5:46 pm

warrick95 wrote:I think statistical analysis is overrated and that's that. I guess you dig that kind of stuff. Can't do anything about that.

Patterson's gonna run like crazy if he hits 8th, since he has the 9 hitter and then leadoff coming up after him. On the other hand, Granderson has the heart of the order after him, so he will steal less. In addition, what you still don't seem to comprehend is that stealing bases will be tougher at the MLB level because you need to be smart AND have speed. In the minors, one of the two would be enough. Hell, Adam Dunn stole 24 bases at A-ball in 2000. It's too easy.

Anyway, we'll never agree. Why don't we settle this with a nice Cafe Sig bet...I'll take Corey Patterson to finish higher in final Yahoo ranking (standard 5X5) than Curtis Granderson. Both have to play in at least 140 games, though (protection for injury).


You can't steal first base...and since when has the #8 slot been a better slot for SB attempts than the lead off slot? Comparing Adam Dunn in A ball to Granderson in AAA? :-°

By the way, Dunn's first full year in MLB? He stole 19 bases.

I never expected us to agree, because your mind was made up before we started. I'm focused on making a convincing case to other people who haven't made up their minds.

But, I am happy to take that bet...but NO injury protection. That's part of the story with Patterson.
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Postby slomo007 » Mon Mar 27, 2006 5:56 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
warrick95 wrote:I think statistical analysis is overrated and that's that. I guess you dig that kind of stuff. Can't do anything about that.

Patterson's gonna run like crazy if he hits 8th, since he has the 9 hitter and then leadoff coming up after him. On the other hand, Granderson has the heart of the order after him, so he will steal less. In addition, what you still don't seem to comprehend is that stealing bases will be tougher at the MLB level because you need to be smart AND have speed. In the minors, one of the two would be enough. Hell, Adam Dunn stole 24 bases at A-ball in 2000. It's too easy.

Anyway, we'll never agree. Why don't we settle this with a nice Cafe Sig bet...I'll take Corey Patterson to finish higher in final Yahoo ranking (standard 5X5) than Curtis Granderson. Both have to play in at least 140 games, though (protection for injury).


You can't steal first base...and since when has the #8 slot been a better slot for SB attempts than the lead off slot? Comparing Adam Dunn in A ball to Granderson in AAA? :-°

By the way, Dunn's first full year in MLB? He stole 19 bases.

I never expected us to agree, because your mind was made up before we started. I'm focused on making a convincing case to other people who haven't made up their minds.

But, I am happy to take that bet...but NO injury protection. That's part of the story with Patterson.


Shocked as I might be, I completely agree with GTWMA here. Find me an 7/8/9 hitter who stole more than 20 bases last season - I would imagine there were very few, if any. Managers don't want to steal and risk the out - making it one possible less AB for the studs near the top of the lineup.

And yes, Dunn was known for his speed too when he came in to the league...and he can still run surprisingly well.
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Postby warrick95 » Mon Mar 27, 2006 7:08 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
warrick95 wrote:I think statistical analysis is overrated and that's that. I guess you dig that kind of stuff. Can't do anything about that.

Patterson's gonna run like crazy if he hits 8th, since he has the 9 hitter and then leadoff coming up after him. On the other hand, Granderson has the heart of the order after him, so he will steal less. In addition, what you still don't seem to comprehend is that stealing bases will be tougher at the MLB level because you need to be smart AND have speed. In the minors, one of the two would be enough. Hell, Adam Dunn stole 24 bases at A-ball in 2000. It's too easy.

Anyway, we'll never agree. Why don't we settle this with a nice Cafe Sig bet...I'll take Corey Patterson to finish higher in final Yahoo ranking (standard 5X5) than Curtis Granderson. Both have to play in at least 140 games, though (protection for injury).


You can't steal first base...and since when has the #8 slot been a better slot for SB attempts than the lead off slot? Comparing Adam Dunn in A ball to Granderson in AAA? :-°

By the way, Dunn's first full year in MLB? He stole 19 bases.

I never expected us to agree, because your mind was made up before we started. I'm focused on making a convincing case to other people who haven't made up their minds.

But, I am happy to take that bet...but NO injury protection. That's part of the story with Patterson.


My point was that stolen base numbers in the minors don't translate into the majors. I was too lazy to think of anyone else so I just used Dunn. But if you insist...
Delmon Young stole 32 bases between AA and AAA last year. He does not project to steal that many in the pros because he is not that fast.
Vernon Wells stole 23 bases in AAA in one season. He has stolen 30 bases in five full MLB seasons.
Jacque Jones stole 9 bases in AAA in 52 games. Projected over a full season, it'd be over 25 stolen bases. His highest total in the major leagues has been 13.

But anyway, that doesn't seem to matter much since we're going to settle this with a bet.

I don't feel that comfortable betting without injury/game protection, so let's keep this bet on the original topic- Curtis Granderson. You said that you're confident that he'll hit 20/20 in the .270-.290 range. Why don't we set the over/under at .280-20 homers-20 stolen bases. I'll take the under on all three, you take the over. Winner is the person who gets more of the three categories correct.
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Postby Dynasty Deacon » Mon Mar 27, 2006 7:33 pm

Scott Podsednik

Minors= 2772 At Bats, 190 Stolen Bases= 14.589 At bats per stolen base

Majors= 1731 At Bats, 172 Stolen Bases= 10.063 At bats per stolen base

Speed can be developed along the way, and sometimes stolen bases will go up upon reaching the majors.
Last edited by Dynasty Deacon on Mon Mar 27, 2006 9:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:54 pm

warrick95 wrote:My point was that stolen base numbers in the minors don't translate into the majors. I was too lazy to think of anyone else so I just used Dunn. But if you insist...
Delmon Young stole 32 bases between AA and AAA last year. He does not project to steal that many in the pros because he is not that fast.
Vernon Wells stole 23 bases in AAA in one season. He has stolen 30 bases in five full MLB seasons.
Jacque Jones stole 9 bases in AAA in 52 games. Projected over a full season, it'd be over 25 stolen bases. His highest total in the major leagues has been 13.


Are those the best examples you can find? How about Jones' former teammate Torii Hunter? Never stole more than 13 in any minor league season and his last two seasons in AA/AAA was a horrendous 53% success rate. He regularly tops 20 SBs with a close to 70% rate in the pros.

Abreu had just one minor league season wherer he topped 16 SBs; that year he stole 24 bases and he got caught 18 times.

Two-thirds of the guys who finished in the top 25 for SBs last year stole more bases with a better success rate as a major leaguer than as a minor leaguer.

Minor league numbers can be misleading either way, but the facts show they tend to UNDERESTIMATE a player's SB potential. Teams don't want top prospects to injure themselves stealing some meaningless base in a AA game, so they set limits on what they can do, just as with pitch counts for young pitchers.

warrick95 wrote:But anyway, that doesn't seem to matter much since we're going to settle this with a bet.

I don't feel that comfortable betting without injury/game protection, so let's keep this bet on the original topic- Curtis Granderson. You said that you're confident that he'll hit 20/20 in the .270-.290 range. Why don't we set the over/under at .280-20 homers-20 stolen bases. I'll take the under on all three, you take the over. Winner is the person who gets more of the three categories correct.


:-b You oughta wear your sneakers backwards! Fine, I'll take that. I'm gonna have to write down some of my bets here...I'm losing track.
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Postby nuggets » Mon Mar 27, 2006 9:14 pm

Hey I'll take you for the Patterson hits under .250 bet.

Jeez GTWMA, you could have a bunch of funny AVs by the end of the year. :-D

If I win you have to include this in your sig, "Corey Patterson is sabermetric gold" :-b






Dynasty Deacon wrote:Scott Podsednik

Minors= 2772 At Bats, 190 Stolen Bases= 14.589 At bats per stolen base

Majors= 1731 At Bats, 172 Stolen Bases= 10.063 At bats per stolen base

Speed can be developed along the way, and sometimes stolen bases will go up upon reaching the minors.


You meant majors right?
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Postby klvrdude » Mon Mar 27, 2006 10:31 pm

nuggets wrote:"Corey Patterson is sabermetric gold" :-b


I hope he takes the bet, that's HILARIOUS!
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Mar 28, 2006 12:00 am

nuggets wrote:Hey I'll take you for the Patterson hits under .250 bet.

Jeez GTWMA, you could have a bunch of funny AVs by the end of the year. :-D

If I win you have to include this in your sig, "Corey Patterson is sabermetric gold" :-b


Sure 'nuff.

And I'll go with my usual... I demand a post, in limerick form, in praise of my prognosticatory powers.



I'm counting on people's short memories to prevent many of these bets from being collected!
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