nuggets wrote:Pretty strong predictions Agnes. I'd take a bet on Patterson hitting .250 or better.
Granderson never hitting under .285? Wow. I won't bet on it, but If I was forced to I'd take the under every time.
What makes you think Patterson will split time with Matos? Won't Gibbons split time with Millar and Millar with Matos in left?
It's hard to say exactly what percentage of the time who will play where with Sam Perlozzo's style, but Patterson should be the primary CF.
Isn't there a decent chance of Matos being dealt?
What about Nook Logan and the chance he takes PT away from Granderson at some point, say when/if Granderson slumps and Nook is hitting well?
If you take playing time out of the picture it seems that Granderson is more capable in the runs and average department, Patterson in steals, with a tie in Power. Granderson is a reasonable bet to provide more fantasy value, but 30+ steals from Corey could change that.
Patterson's got a career .252 BA and he just moved from Wrigley, which is basically neutral for BA for LHB, to Camden, which is one of the worst parks for BA for LHB. BA is always impossible to predict, but I don't see him much higher than that.
I'm not saying Granderson will not hit under .285 in MLB, just that he's never hit less than that as a pro. I'd expect him to be in the .270-.290 range, which should easily top Patterson.
Gibbons is in right. Conine is in LF. If the O's keep Matos, he'll get time in both LF and CF.
There is a chance Matos will be dealt, but I think the more likely event is he stays. Since returning from the WBC, Matos is batting over .300. If they deal him they either have to rush Markakis to the pros, or go with Millar and Newhan as their only back-up OFs. Trade talks have cooled (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=r ... &type=lgns
) and the Orioles reportedly put Gil on waivers, making room for Matos.
The chances that Patterson will slump and lose time to Matos >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The chance that Granderson will slump and lose time to Logan (who is also being shopped)
Why would we assume Patterson would get 30+ SBs? He's done that once in 4 major league seasons. His average full season of 162 MLB games is 23 SBs. So, 30 SB is possible, but that's a more reasonable prediction, if he plays every game.
If he sits 10-15 games because of slumps/platoons or if he hits under .250 (and as a result has an OBP under .300) he won't even get to 20 SBs because he can't steal first base.
Granderson also has an advantage here because of OBP. Both guys have about the same SBA rate, about once every 6 times on base. Patterson's a batter base stealer (although Granderson's improving, as I showed), but that's almost completely offset by the fact that Granderson's likely to get on base 20-40 more times if they get the same number of PAs.
I think SBs is a tossup.
RBIs--last year Detroit got 61 RBIs from their #1 slot, while the Orioles got 46 from their #8 slot. Granderson will hit after Shelton and Inge. Patterson after Conine and Hernandez. I think it is likely that the young guys Detroit has will exceed their expectations, while the Oriole geezers will fall short, giving Granderson more opportunities. Higher average, better OBP, and simimlar to better SLG with more opportunities means more RBIs.
HRs: Sure, they look equal...but Patterson just went from Wrigley, a very good park for HRs by LHB, to Camden, a basically neutral park for LHB and HRs.
I think SBs is the only area where Patterson has a prayer of topping Granderson.