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Curtis Granderson under the radar

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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Mar 27, 2006 12:25 am

warrick95 wrote:The danger that y'all aren't seeing here is that y'all are expecting him to basically fulfill his potential (because he is not going to become much more than a 20-20 player) in his first full season. That's a lot to ask; I am not going to lie.

You do know that we're comparing numbers of a 24 year old Granderson, who had completed college, with a 22 year old Patterson. Duh, Corey's got some of the worst strike zone judgment and hitting ability that you'll ever see. However, given his enormous power/speed abilities (which blows Granderson's tools in this respective categories out of the water) and his big league experience (despite it being pretty bad for the most part), I'd rather take a risk on Patterson. I posted just the K/BB to simplify the situation. I didn't feel like typing all the stuff I just did.


It's not about what tools you have. It's about what you do with them.

warrick95 wrote:I'm not underestimating his power because he simply doesn't have that much. His bat's probably his best tool and even that's not that great. All-around good player, though. You're throwing out numbers in rookie ball and A+ ball, but you have to remember that this is a drafted college player we're talking about. Considering the fact that a. they are just about done filling out and b. are more mature physically and in hitting, college players sure as hell better rip the lower levels up. If you notice a consistent trend, most good college players thrive in OBP and power in the lower levels.


A guy who has an IsoP over .200 at age 24 in AAA and MLB doesn't have much power? That's simply nonsense.

I don't care if it's a drafted kindergartener. Stop listening to the scouts and start looking at the facts.

warrick95 wrote:Crunch numbers all y'all want, but the scouts are generally at a consensus that despite the numbers, his upside is probably at the 20/20 or so level, as his tools are just about average to slightly above average across the board. To expect him to not have growing pains at all is preposterous. The jump from AAA to a full season in the MLB is much more considerable than y'all think.


Every jump, he's improved. I'll take that bet. Far more over a guy who has over 2,000 MLB at bats, a career OBP under .295 and an OPS+ almost 20 percent below league average.

The difference between Patterson and Granderson? Granderson, listens, learns, and gets better. Patterson doesn't.


http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... patterson/

http://www.rotoauthority.com/2006/02/index.html
Look down the page
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Postby warrick95 » Mon Mar 27, 2006 12:33 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
warrick95 wrote:The danger that y'all aren't seeing here is that y'all are expecting him to basically fulfill his potential (because he is not going to become much more than a 20-20 player) in his first full season. That's a lot to ask; I am not going to lie.

You do know that we're comparing numbers of a 24 year old Granderson, who had completed college, with a 22 year old Patterson. Duh, Corey's got some of the worst strike zone judgment and hitting ability that you'll ever see. However, given his enormous power/speed abilities (which blows Granderson's tools in this respective categories out of the water) and his big league experience (despite it being pretty bad for the most part), I'd rather take a risk on Patterson. I posted just the K/BB to simplify the situation. I didn't feel like typing all the stuff I just did.


It's not about what tools you have. It's about what you do with them.

But if you don't have the tools in the first place, you're not going to produce even if you try to do things with them. Granderson has average to slightly above average tools across the board. Hitting is his best tool and even that isn't plus.

warrick95 wrote:I'm not underestimating his power because he simply doesn't have that much. His bat's probably his best tool and even that's not that great. All-around good player, though. You're throwing out numbers in rookie ball and A+ ball, but you have to remember that this is a drafted college player we're talking about. Considering the fact that a. they are just about done filling out and b. are more mature physically and in hitting, college players sure as hell better rip the lower levels up. If you notice a consistent trend, most good college players thrive in OBP and power in the lower levels.


A guy who has an IsoP over .200 at age 24 in AAA and MLB doesn't have much power? That's simply nonsense.

I don't care if it's a drafted kindergartener. Stop listening to the scouts and start looking at the facts.

I'm really beginning to get annoyed by the new statistical wave that thinks scouting doesn't matter at all. Statistics are black and white. They're put on paper and not alive. A sample season of one season may very well be incorrect, based on things that can be seen during games that are not shown on statistics. Scouts, on the other hand, watch games and recognize what the player has done, but also look at what he can do and predict in the future. I think a much better long-term picture can be painted by scouts rather than a year's worth of numbers. And [b]please do not attempt to use minor league numbers at lower levels of a kid who went to college. They're nearly useless.[/b]

warrick95 wrote:Crunch numbers all y'all want, but the scouts are generally at a consensus that despite the numbers, his upside is probably at the 20/20 or so level, as his tools are just about average to slightly above average across the board. To expect him to not have growing pains at all is preposterous. The jump from AAA to a full season in the MLB is much more considerable than y'all think.


Every jump, he's improved. I'll take that bet. Far more over a guy who has over 2,000 MLB at bats, a career OBP under .295 and an OPS+ almost 20 percent below league average.

The difference between Patterson and Granderson? Granderson, listens, learns, and gets better. Patterson doesn't.


http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... patterson/

http://www.rotoauthority.com/2006/02/index.html
Look down the page


Apparently we're comparing who can hit 20/20 and you assume that I think Corey Patterson is a better hitter than Curtis Granderson? Umm...I never said that. However, I stand by my conclusion that Corey Patterson will be a better fantasy player this year (as long as he hits reasonably high in the lineup, that is), because Patterson will run like a chicken with his head cut off on the bases and swing for the fences despite not being a good power hitter.
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Postby TheRock » Mon Mar 27, 2006 12:40 am

GTWMA is my hero. Can you send me an autographed ball or something? B-) Seriously, always full of good insight and information.
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Postby nuggets » Mon Mar 27, 2006 12:41 am

Yes, I now have my favorite analysis of the year:

Granderson: Good potential for 15/15

Corey Patterson: HR will depend on luck and time spent in the majors, SB- will run like chicken with head cut off. :-b
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Mar 27, 2006 12:41 am

nuggets wrote:Despite the progression, he still has only been an effective base stealer for one season in his minors career.

Why do you think they only ran him twice in 172 PA last year GTWMA?

Do we know what style the Tigers will play this year?

Even if the guy stays 100% healthy, I don't think saying he's a lock for 20 SB is sound advice. I'm sticking to 18/15.


Why should I guess?

A recent quote from Granderson only serves to further tease his owners:

" We were passive on the bases when I came up," said Granderson, who stole 22 bases in 111 games with Toledo in 2005. "Hopefully, this year, I'll have the freedom of the coaches to steal more bases. I would have probably gotten 30 (with Toledo) if not for my time in the major leagues."
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Mar 27, 2006 12:45 am

warrick95 wrote:Comparing stats at different levels is comparing apples to oranges. Don't bother reading too much into minor league statistics unless you want to be severely disappointed. As long as the scouting report is good and the statistics are good, the player will be fine.

Granderson's stats are good, but the scouts repeatedly caution that he is not the high upside player that some may think he is. Take that for what it's worth. To y'all, it's apparently nothing.

He can probably hit 20/20, but if you're saying that that's a lock in his FIRST FULL SEASON...wow.


I am.

I value the stuff I scrape off the bottom of my shoes more than I value what scouts repeatedly caution. The guy works his @$$ off and makes progress every single year. Scouts ALWAYS undervalue guys who do everything very good, but nothing outstanding. And yet, those guys are incredibly valuable, in both baseball and fantasy.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Mar 27, 2006 12:59 am

warrick95 wrote:But if you don't have the tools in the first place, you're not going to produce even if you try to do things with them. Granderson has average to slightly above average tools across the board. Hitting is his best tool and even that isn't plus.


Yeah, right. A guy who posts an .874 OPS in AAA with a .225 IsoP and a 79% success rate in SBs has no tools. Granderson not only has tools, he knows how the freak to use them.

warrick95 wrote:
I'm really beginning to get annoyed by the new statistical wave that thinks scouting doesn't matter at all. Statistics are black and white. They're put on paper and not alive. A sample season of one season may very well be incorrect, based on things that can be seen during games that are not shown on statistics. Scouts, on the other hand, watch games and recognize what the player has done, but also look at what he can do and predict in the future. I think a much better long-term picture can be painted by scouts rather than a year's worth of numbers. And [b]please do not attempt to use minor league numbers at lower levels of a kid who went to college. They're nearly useless.[/b]

And I'm way past annoyed by scouts who think their experience is more important than the facts. When scouts put their experience to the test and prove that their analysis is worth more than what I use to wipe my keister, give me a call.


warrick95 wrote:
Apparently we're comparing who can hit 20/20 and you assume that I think Corey Patterson is a better hitter than Curtis Granderson? Umm...I never said that. However, I stand by my conclusion that Corey Patterson will be a better fantasy player this year (as long as he hits reasonably high in the lineup, that is), because Patterson will run like a chicken with his head cut off on the bases and swing for the fences despite not being a good power hitter.


You may want to back down now, but you sure have not been comparing Granderson and Patterson solely on their likely fantasy performance this year.

And, besides, Granderson wil kick his butt this year, too.

Patterson will hit under .250, while Granderson has never hit less than .285. Patterson will split time with Matos, while Granderson has the job outright. Patterson will bat 8th, while Granderson leads off.

Patterson will be lucky to beat Granderson in one of the 5 categories, let alone be a better fantasy player overall.
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Postby nuggets » Mon Mar 27, 2006 1:03 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
nuggets wrote:Despite the progression, he still has only been an effective base stealer for one season in his minors career.

Why do you think they only ran him twice in 172 PA last year GTWMA?

Do we know what style the Tigers will play this year?

Even if the guy stays 100% healthy, I don't think saying he's a lock for 20 SB is sound advice. I'm sticking to 18/15.


Why should I guess?

A recent quote from Granderson only serves to further tease his owners:

" We were passive on the bases when I came up," said Granderson, who stole 22 bases in 111 games with Toledo in 2005. "Hopefully, this year, I'll have the freedom of the coaches to steal more bases. I would have probably gotten 30 (with Toledo) if not for my time in the major leagues."


GTWMA with the nice dig. Source, link?

Why should you guess? That isn't even a rhetorical question Agnes. Guess for the same reasons you would do any projection!

Does anyone know how Trammell likes to play and if there are any indicators of his intended baseruning habits this upcoming season?

Last season Detroit was 10th(AL) in SB attempted. The last two seasons, which Trammell managed as well, the Tigers were 7th and 4th. The trend is fewer SBA (161, 136, 94).

Granderson's comment doesn't indicate he's been told by management that he'll be stealing more. It looks like an unestablished players appeal to play the way he thinks is right. That could work in both ways for him.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Mar 27, 2006 1:06 am

nuggets wrote: GTWMA with the nice dig. Source, link?

Why should you guess? That isn't even a rhetorical question Agnes. Guess for the same reasons you would do any projection!

Does anyone know how Trammell likes to play and if there are any indicators of his intended baseruning habits this upcoming season?

Last season Detroit was 10th(AL) in SB attempted. The last two seasons, which Trammell managed as well, the Tigers were 7th and 4th. The trend is fewer SBA (161, 136, 94).

Granderson's comment doesn't indicate he's been told by management that he'll be stealing more. It looks like an unestablished players appeal to play the way he thinks is right. That could work in both ways for him.


The quote is from the rotoauthority link a fe wposts up.

Trammel's gone. It's Leyland now, who seems to be the type of manager that adapts to his talent a bit. He's had seasons in the top 5 for SBA and seasons in the bottom 5. Certainly ran with FL and Pitt a few years when he had the talent.
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Postby nuggets » Mon Mar 27, 2006 1:14 am

orakana wrote:First off I'm definateley on the bandwagon with Granderson, I've been interested in him since last season and I also got a whole hour on him walking my dog listening to the fantasy focus on mlb on xm a month or so back so I've heard enough I need to know on him...

I got him with my last pick in my 10 team keeper league in the 18th round. I figure if he does anything he's gonna be the steal of the season for me because all he has to do is play well on my bench and maybe turn into nice trade bate. I really don't need him to play that well since I have Manny Ramirez, Grady Sizemore, Juan Pierre, and Magglio Ordonez, and I guess Chone Figgins (eligable?) ahead of him.


That's great Cow, I'm glad you told us that. Now what do you know about him?
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