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Curtis Granderson under the radar

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Postby warrick95 » Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:33 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
warrick95 wrote:I think people are getting too optimistic with the power predictions. While he did hit a few in limited action last year, he doesn't project as more than a low 20s home run hitter, because he simply isn't a slugger type. In college, he was a good BA hitter who had gap power. That should bode well for him in the large alleys of Comerica. His 2004 home run numbers (Erie) were aided by his home park.


I think you underestimate his power. He also had 50 XBH in A+ ball and 22 XBH (in 212 AB) in rookie ball.


He'll also need to cut down on those Ks a little. 129/48 K/BB ratio isn't horrible, but the K number is rather high for a leadoff man. I don't see him as the Sizemorelike players that y'all do and if power/speed is what you want, I would rather take a flyer on Corey Patterson. Despite seemingly being around for forever, Patterson is only a year and a half older than Granderson. It's not like his bat is irreversibly bad. At a younger age at AAA (22), Patterson had a 65/29 K/BB ratio in 89 games. Granderson's was 129/48 in 111 games at age 24.


The danger with looking just at BB/K ratios is it ignores a lot of other important information. Like, for instance, the fact that Patterson's Iowa park is an even better hitter's park than Erie. And, for example, the fact that Granderson posted a .290 BA, .359 OBP, amd .515 SLG with those ratios, while Patterson posted a .253 BA, .308 OBP, and .387 SLG. One tells the story of a player that needs to work on his plate discipline, but makes good contact, works the count to get walks, and hits the ball with excellent power when he makes contact. The other tells a story of a player that has below average plate discipline, below average contact skills, below average ability to work the count and below average ability to drive the ball when he makes contact.

What was Sizemore's BB/K ratios last year? 132/52

If Granderson gets 550+ ABs, he'll go 20/20 this year. The top end of his ability is told by his comparable list, which includes the name Abreu on it. I'd much rather take the chance on that happening than on Patterson.[/quote]

The danger that y'all aren't seeing here is that y'all are expecting him to basically fulfill his potential (because he is not going to become much more than a 20-20 player) in his first full season. That's a lot to ask; I am not going to lie.

You do know that we're comparing numbers of a 24 year old Granderson, who had completed college, with a 22 year old Patterson. Duh, Corey's got some of the worst strike zone judgment and hitting ability that you'll ever see. However, given his enormous power/speed abilities (which blows Granderson's tools in this respective categories out of the water) and his big league experience (despite it being pretty bad for the most part), I'd rather take a risk on Patterson. I posted just the K/BB to simplify the situation. I didn't feel like typing all the stuff I just did.

I'm not underestimating his power because he simply doesn't have that much. His bat's probably his best tool and even that's not that great. All-around good player, though. You're throwing out numbers in rookie ball and A+ ball, but you have to remember that this is a drafted college player we're talking about. Considering the fact that a. they are just about done filling out and b. are more mature physically and in hitting, college players sure as hell better rip the lower levels up. If you notice a consistent trend, most good college players thrive in OBP and power in the lower levels.

Crunch numbers all y'all want, but the scouts are generally at a consensus that despite the numbers, his upside is probably at the 20/20 or so level, as his tools are just about average to slightly above average across the board. To expect him to not have growing pains at all is preposterous. The jump from AAA to a full season in the MLB is much more considerable than y'all think.
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Postby orakana » Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:46 pm

First off I'm definateley on the bandwagon with Granderson, I've been interested in him since last season and I also got a whole hour on him walking my dog listening to the fantasy focus on mlb on xm a month or so back so I've heard enough I need to know on him...

I got him with my last pick in my 10 team keeper league in the 18th round. I figure if he does anything he's gonna be the steal of the season for me because all he has to do is play well on my bench and maybe turn into nice trade bate. I really don't need him to play that well since I have Manny Ramirez, Grady Sizemore, Juan Pierre, and Magglio Ordonez, and I guess Chone Figgins (eligable?) ahead of him.
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Postby dukesimms » Sun Mar 26, 2006 10:20 pm

teddyballgamemvp wrote:
AT wrote:I need to see Detroit's projected opening day lineup before I start going ape over Granderson. I've liked him since he was in the minors and Detroit flaunted him around as their top hitting prospect. If I see Granderson in the lineup and Logan on the bench I'll snatch him up. Until then I'm going to have to wait.


Here's Leylands projected lineup in Detroit news

http://detroit.tigers.mlb.com/NASApp/ml ... p&c_id=det

Granderson was a top prospect
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Postby hot sauce » Sun Mar 26, 2006 10:56 pm

nuggets wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:If Granderson gets 550+ ABs, he'll go 20/20 this year.


He doesn't have that kind of speed or baserunning ability. 20 would be the max, a safer bet 15 even with 550+ AB.


False. He does have that kind of speed and baserunning ability. Last year he stole 22 with 6 cs in only 111 AAA games. He has 7 sb's so far this spring. I would say he is more likely to reach 20 sb's this year than 20 HR...
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Postby nuggets » Sun Mar 26, 2006 11:14 pm

hot sauce wrote:
nuggets wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:If Granderson gets 550+ ABs, he'll go 20/20 this year.


He doesn't have that kind of speed or baserunning ability. 20 would be the max, a safer bet 15 even with 550+ AB.


False. He does have that kind of speed and baserunning ability. Last year he stole 22 with 6 cs in only 111 AAA games. He has 7 sb's so far this spring. I would say he is more likely to reach 20 sb's this year than 20 HR...


How does that prove to be false? Do SB-CS, average and power directly translate to the majors?

SB in ST really doesn't matter, just so you know. 22 SB in 501 PA isn't that special, also consider he has been caught stealing 23 times with 55 SB in his minors career.
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Postby warrick95 » Sun Mar 26, 2006 11:16 pm

nuggets wrote:
hot sauce wrote:
nuggets wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:If Granderson gets 550+ ABs, he'll go 20/20 this year.


He doesn't have that kind of speed or baserunning ability. 20 would be the max, a safer bet 15 even with 550+ AB.


False. He does have that kind of speed and baserunning ability. Last year he stole 22 with 6 cs in only 111 AAA games. He has 7 sb's so far this spring. I would say he is more likely to reach 20 sb's this year than 20 HR...


How does that prove to be false? Do SB-CS, average and power directly translate to the majors?

SB in ST really doesn't matter, just so you know. 22 SB in 501 PA isn't that special, also consider he has been caught stealing 23 times with 55 SB in his minors career.


Scouts used to say that he didn't have the speed to play CF. They retracted that statement, but if they'd made it in the first place, it means that he isn't the speediest guy. I would agree that 20 in his prime is probably his max.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Mar 27, 2006 12:00 am

nuggets wrote:How does that prove to be false? Do SB-CS, average and power directly translate to the majors?

SB in ST really doesn't matter, just so you know. 22 SB in 501 PA isn't that special, also consider he has been caught stealing 23 times with 55 SB in his minors career.


That's a 71% success rate, by the way.

But, people, you need to look at the trend, not just the total.

In 2003 in A ball, he steals 10 with a 59% success rate.
In 2004 in AA ball, he steals 14 with a 64% success rate.
In 2005 in AAA/MLB ball he steals 23 with a 77% success rate.

Each time he's jumped a level and improved.

That's a sign, gang. It's a sign of a player who is putting it all together. It's a sign of a player making rapid progress and quickly consolidating those gains.

And, here's Granderson's isolated power, the best measure of raw power
2002 in Low A: .151
2003 in High A:.172
2004 in AA: .212
2005 in AAA/MLB: .225/.222

Again, jumping a level AND improving.

So, go ahead and read those scouting reports about what he can't do and focus on what the stats say he used to do, rather what the stats say he will do in the future.

I've got him on my team and if he stays healthy and gets 550+ ABs, he's a lock for 20/20.
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Postby nuggets » Mon Mar 27, 2006 12:15 am

Despite the progression, he still has only been an effective base stealer for one season in his minors career.

Why do you think they only ran him twice in 172 PA last year GTWMA?

Do we know what style the Tigers will play this year?

Even if the guy stays 100% healthy, I don't think saying he's a lock for 20 SB is sound advice. I'm sticking to 18/15.
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Postby George_Foreman » Mon Mar 27, 2006 12:21 am

I think 15/15 is what you should expect and be pleased that you got it. :-) I've seen him go pretty late in every draft I've been in, so I don't think you'll need to spend a very high pick. Expect 15/15 and if he does better, great. ;-D
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Postby warrick95 » Mon Mar 27, 2006 12:23 am

Comparing stats at different levels is comparing apples to oranges. Don't bother reading too much into minor league statistics unless you want to be severely disappointed. As long as the scouting report is good and the statistics are good, the player will be fine.

Granderson's stats are good, but the scouts repeatedly caution that he is not the high upside player that some may think he is. Take that for what it's worth. To y'all, it's apparently nothing.

He can probably hit 20/20, but if you're saying that that's a lock in his FIRST FULL SEASON...wow.
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