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Curtis Granderson under the radar

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Postby nuggets » Sun Mar 26, 2006 1:12 am

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
wrveres wrote:291 Avg 25 hr's 26 sb's 81 rbi's ;-7
there .. I simply added one to each of ACS projections .. ;-D
thats my line. Cornbread, where you at?

I like him. I think he'll hit in the .280 range, score 90ish Rs, 15-20 HRs, 10-15 SBs, and knock in 60 RBIs. Once he started getting regular PT in Sept last yr he really started to mature. Since then his plate discipline has continued to improve and he's a lock to start in CF for DET - Nook Logan has a very real chance of getting cut or traded at this point. Expectations for '06 should remain low however, since he is still just 25 and this will be his first full yr in the majors.

In keeper leagues, he makes a very strong cheap target. The negative steriotype of Detroit hitters will keep his value low.


I think he is a decent bet for the numbers you mention Cornbread, although 90 runs would likely require a good spot in the order. I don't think he's a smart bet to get 20 steals, however the hitting should be there. Comerica Park ranks in the top four in LHB average and homeruns and his splits reflect this.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Sun Mar 26, 2006 1:38 am

Well - he's been leading off quite a lot in ST and so far is hitting over .400 and leading the team in Rs, HRs, and total bases. With Polanco, Irod, and Maggs following him, I think 90 Rs is probably a bit optimistic, but it certainly isnt that big of a reach.

Granderson is looking very good right now.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Mar 26, 2006 8:21 am

The key is if Granderson can get that OBP where it was as a minor leaguer. His OBP in the majors is .315, while in the minors it was .383. Last year, the #1 slot for the Tigers scored 98 runs with an OBP of .349. This year, the Tigers are projected to score 30-50 more runs than last year. Which means a .350 OBP from the leadoff slot should produce about 100-105 runs. If Granderson can get that OBP (or higher) and play 90% or more of his games from lead-off, he'll get 90 runs. If he gets that OBP up to .375 or so, he'll score 100+
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Postby mcqfesijiba » Sun Mar 26, 2006 12:05 pm

d18Mike wrote:Saw him play in about 5 games last year (I'm in DET). Impressive. He has hit at every level and expectations are high. I think what you are describing in terms of possible production would send the Tigers GM (and me as a Tigers fan) into fits of glee. They are the high end of the spectrum.

Most predictions I see have been .275-.300, 15-20 HRs (Comerica is a HUGE park) 15-20SBs. He's very solid contrbutor on all fronts, outstanding in none. A well-balanced player.

But I hope you are right -- I like the optimism. ;-D
Yes, Comerica is a huge park, but it caters much, much better to left handed power hitters, hence why fans want a premier left handed hitting talent in this lineup which continues to evade this team. I think his power numbers will surprise people a bit and he'll reach the lower 20's. The stolen bases, I'm still a little bit conservative on, but the potential is there. I worry about the K's, but he is known to be an intelligent player and hard worker, so I think he'll show improvements in the areas where he needs them. They say he's been already working extensively on that plate discipline with the spring numbers to somewhat back that up. He'll be an interesting player to watch to say the least.
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Postby KolbSaves » Sun Mar 26, 2006 2:06 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:The key is if Granderson can get that OBP where it was as a minor leaguer. His OBP in the majors is .315, while in the minors it was .383. Last year, the #1 slot for the Tigers scored 98 runs with an OBP of .349. This year, the Tigers are projected to score 30-50 more runs than last year. Which means a .350 OBP from the leadoff slot should produce about 100-105 runs. If Granderson can get that OBP (or higher) and play 90% or more of his games from lead-off, he'll get 90 runs. If he gets that OBP up to .375 or so, he'll score 100+

Awesome analysis ;-D
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Postby curious_george_43545 » Sun Mar 26, 2006 3:14 pm

KolbSaves wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:The key is if Granderson can get that OBP where it was as a minor leaguer. His OBP in the majors is .315, while in the minors it was .383. Last year, the #1 slot for the Tigers scored 98 runs with an OBP of .349. This year, the Tigers are projected to score 30-50 more runs than last year. Which means a .350 OBP from the leadoff slot should produce about 100-105 runs. If Granderson can get that OBP (or higher) and play 90% or more of his games from lead-off, he'll get 90 runs. If he gets that OBP up to .375 or so, he'll score 100+

Awesome analysis ;-D


Very nice GtWMA ;-D

I think he could do .285/15/15/95/55 or so.
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Postby warrick95 » Sun Mar 26, 2006 4:05 pm

I think people are getting too optimistic with the power predictions. While he did hit a few in limited action last year, he doesn't project as more than a low 20s home run hitter, because he simply isn't a slugger type. In college, he was a good BA hitter who had gap power. That should bode well for him in the large alleys of Comerica. His 2004 home run numbers (Erie) were aided by his home park.

Scouts used to say that his speed was lacking for CF, but have retracted that statement. However, his speed still isn't great...it's only above average. He's a smart base stealer, but I wouldn't directly translate his SB numbers to the majors.

Since he's young, I would say that he's going to hit around .275-16 homers-15 SB this year and could score 90 runs at the top of the Tigers' lineup. I think his career max for home runs will be 25 and he'll settle in at the high teens/low 20s in his prime. I think his speed will decrease as he ages and will be a latter-day Marquis Grissom type, but with a higher OBP (not the early career 50 SB Grissom).

He'll also need to cut down on those Ks a little. 129/48 K/BB ratio isn't horrible, but the K number is rather high for a leadoff man. I don't see him as the Sizemorelike players that y'all do and if power/speed is what you want, I would rather take a flyer on Corey Patterson. Despite seemingly being around for forever, Patterson is only a year and a half older than Granderson. It's not like his bat is irreversibly bad. At a younger age at AAA (22), Patterson had a 65/29 K/BB ratio in 89 games. Granderson's was 129/48 in 111 games at age 24.
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Postby nuggets » Sun Mar 26, 2006 7:18 pm

11 B, 9K; 7 SB, 0 CS; .531 OBP, .784 SLG, .412 AVG so far in ST. 8-o
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Mar 26, 2006 7:28 pm

warrick95 wrote:I think people are getting too optimistic with the power predictions. While he did hit a few in limited action last year, he doesn't project as more than a low 20s home run hitter, because he simply isn't a slugger type. In college, he was a good BA hitter who had gap power. That should bode well for him in the large alleys of Comerica. His 2004 home run numbers (Erie) were aided by his home park.


I think you underestimate his power. He also had 50 XBH in A+ ball and 22 XBH (in 212 AB) in rookie ball.


He'll also need to cut down on those Ks a little. 129/48 K/BB ratio isn't horrible, but the K number is rather high for a leadoff man. I don't see him as the Sizemorelike players that y'all do and if power/speed is what you want, I would rather take a flyer on Corey Patterson. Despite seemingly being around for forever, Patterson is only a year and a half older than Granderson. It's not like his bat is irreversibly bad. At a younger age at AAA (22), Patterson had a 65/29 K/BB ratio in 89 games. Granderson's was 129/48 in 111 games at age 24.[/quote]

The danger with looking just at BB/K ratios is it ignores a lot of other important information. Like, for instance, the fact that Patterson's Iowa park is an even better hitter's park than Erie. And, for example, the fact that Granderson posted a .290 BA, .359 OBP, amd .515 SLG with those ratios, while Patterson posted a .253 BA, .308 OBP, and .387 SLG. One tells the story of a player that needs to work on his plate discipline, but makes good contact, works the count to get walks, and hits the ball with excellent power when he makes contact. The other tells a story of a player that has below average plate discipline, below average contact skills, below average ability to work the count and below average ability to drive the ball when he makes contact.

What was Sizemore's BB/K ratios last year? 132/52

If Granderson gets 550+ ABs, he'll go 20/20 this year. The top end of his ability is told by his comparable list, which includes the name Abreu on it. I'd much rather take the chance on that happening than on Patterson.
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Postby nuggets » Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:10 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:If Granderson gets 550+ ABs, he'll go 20/20 this year.


He doesn't have that kind of speed or baserunning ability. 20 would be the max, a safer bet 15 even with 550+ AB.
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