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Statheads or Do You Know The Game? (Question For All)

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Postby LCBOY » Tue Jul 08, 2003 4:27 pm

Anonymous wrote:Does your SLG % need to be high if you can steal 2b or 3b when needed. In my opinion a single followed by a steal of 2b is as good as a double. When there are runners on 2nd and 3rd down by 1 with 2 outs in the bottom of the ninth Ichiro is the guy I want at the plate. I'd say he isn't overrated at all. He is just a different type of outfielder then the prototypical that gets it done in his own way.


A double is better than a single and a SB because :

1) With a double the player is already at 2B
2) Ichiro doesn't and can't run after every single. Ichiro has 99 singles this year so far. He only has 23 SB and 6 CS.
3) When he gets a CS he removes a potential run scored AND make's an out.

So, it's pretty obvious that a double is better than a single and a SB.

I'll say this again. Ichiro is a very good player. He plays great defense and hits for high average. He helps his team win. Is he an elite offensive force? I say NO. When people state that he is as dominant as Bonds, Pujols, Ramirez, Giambi, Edmonds, Sheffield, Thomas then they are overrating him. He is NOT in that class.

People keep saying that he can hit for power. Well, then why doesn't he? How can someone argue that hitting for high BA, stealing bases and not hitting for power is better than hitting for a high BA, stealing bases and hitting for power? That doesn't make any sense. Hitting for power is just not hitting HRs but also hitting doubles and triples and he doesn't do that. A player can hit for power and not hit 40 HRs. If someone hits 50 doubles, 20 triples, and 15 HRs, to me that is a power hitter (Nomar comes to mind).
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Postby timkell » Tue Jul 08, 2003 4:44 pm

I would disagree. A single followed by a steal is more risky than a double. The guy stealing will get caught occasionally.

Another statistical analysis showed that unless a guy is succesful at stealing something like 77% of the time (I forget the number but it was over 70%) he negatively impacts his offense.

Ichiro's at almost 80%, so he's on the positive side of that. Still, one fifth of the time, he gets an out when he attempts to steal. That's definitely not as good as a double. So if I could have a guy with 50 doubles vs. a guy with 50 stolen bases and 13 times caught stealing, I think I might go with the 50 double guy because I expect he'd have a ton of homers also.

That argument has nothing to do with Ichiro. I was just saying that single I'd rather have a doubles guy than an SB guy. Ichiro is awesome, but his OBP should be higher.
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Postby LCBOY » Tue Jul 08, 2003 4:49 pm

timkell wrote:I would disagree. A single followed by a steal is more risky than a double. The guy stealing will get caught occasionally.

Another statistical analysis showed that unless a guy is succesful at stealing something like 77% of the time (I forget the number but it was over 70%) he negatively impacts his offense.

Ichiro's at almost 80%, so he's on the positive side of that. Still, one fifth of the time, he gets an out when he attempts to steal. That's definitely not as good as a double. So if I could have a guy with 50 doubles vs. a guy with 50 stolen bases and 13 times caught stealing, I think I might go with the 50 double guy because I expect he'd have a ton of homers also.

That argument has nothing to do with Ichiro. I was just saying that single I'd rather have a doubles guy than an SB guy. Ichiro is awesome, but his OBP should be higher.


Timkell, you and I agree...Great minds think alike... :-b
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Postby Aggie_Eric98 » Tue Jul 08, 2003 4:50 pm

4) Weekend World Series games MUST be played during the day.


All games during the day. I remember skipping school to watch them or sneaking in headphones to listen during class. Awe the good ole days.
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Postby LCBOY » Tue Jul 08, 2003 4:58 pm

Aggie_Eric98 wrote:
4) Weekend World Series games MUST be played during the day.


All games during the day. I remember skipping school to watch them or sneaking in headphones to listen during class. Awe the good ole days.


Actually, I agree but I have to compromise here a bit because

1) TV networks would never go for it
2) People work during the day


But start the "night games" at 5 pm PST so kids can watch the games. There is no excuse for no weekend day WS games, though, other than just plain greed.
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Postby LCBOY » Tue Jul 08, 2003 5:01 pm

ondeckb wrote:To LCBOY.....best post I've read in ages...... ;-D

Thanks! ;-D
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Postby IchiBalls » Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:19 pm

If you wanna argue over who should've won the 2001 MVP, I'll take Brett Boone over Giambi. They had very similar numbers at the plate, but Boone gives you the gold glove at second base. You aren't going to find many bats like that at second.
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Postby Longshot » Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:29 pm

Yeah and Pujols is a better Bobby Bonilla..

sorry, had to say it
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Postby HOOTIE » Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:31 pm

[quote=
Another statistical analysis showed that unless a guy is succesful at stealing something like 77% of the time (I forget the number but it was over 70%) he negatively impacts his offense.[/quote]

Close, its 73%. Using linear weights, a sb is worth .17 of a run, and a caught stealing -.45.

Many different topics off the thread, which would be great discussion.

Ichiro overrated
Clutch myth
Stat heads versus remote control guys
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Postby sinicalypse » Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:42 pm

i know nothing about baseball. not a lick. all i know is that i love the cubbies and they are the bestest team ever. we rool. corey patterson is the MVP, moises alou is a better manni ramires, and um, mark prior nad kerry wood are the too best pitchers in history!

stats? what is a stat. never heard of stats. but the cubs would be winning the stats if i know what they are.
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