Projecting Player Performance

[jimmywallaby]

I was wondering if anyone had a good source for learning how to project a player's performance?

I use both Sportsline and Rotochamps and most of the times they are nowhere close to each other on their projections and wanted to learn how to do it myself.

Thanks for any info

[AcidRock23]

I'd suggest Baseball Forecaster. They lay out their methodology pretty clearly in a manageable book (at this time of year, if your spouse/ girlfriend lays off of you, you should be able to get through it in a couple of days...). $20 or so but well worth it. I prefer books to trolling through lists of stuff on the internet though...

Their methodology is largely analyisis of Contact rates, ground/fly/line drive rates but they do draw interesting conclusions about how luck and skill work together to produce stats.