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What do you think about starting "The Run"?

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What do you think about starting "The Run"?

Postby Thriller » Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:01 pm

Let's say you have the 10th and 11th pick in a roto draft. What do you think of starting the closer run at the end of the third round? After drafting two stud hitters back to back, is it imprudent to pick Rivera/Lidge, etc to end the 3rd?

You're pretty much set at closer, and can focus on value SP and hitting from then on out.

Thoughts?

And this is a strategy question, not a "who should I draft." I'm doing some homework in advance of a draft.
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Postby The Jury » Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:06 pm

I'm not sure I'd want to start a run with a corner pick. It depends on the calibre on the other managers in the league. If they're experienced, they probably won't bite on it and you'll be hung out to dry with 2 bats and 2 closers while others load up and get decent closers later on.

If you get 2 stud bats, you might consider taking 2 top pitchers if they are also safe picks, but there are few of those around.

Other than SP and closers, there aren't really any other runs that you could start.
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Postby slomo007 » Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:07 pm

That's way too soon, IMO. The problem with the strategy is that say you take 2 of the best closers - K-Rod and Lidge. Even if the next drafter takes part in the run, and takes Rivera, how many other great closers are there? I highly doubt guys like Izzy, Nathan, C Cordero, or pretty much anyone else will go that high. I think it might be an option at the end of the 5th round if you have the 11th pick.
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Postby nuggets » Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:07 pm

It depends if it's roto or H2H. Usually I punt saves in h2h unless I see certain closers availible in later rounds than "normally" taken in roto leagues. Personally I'd rather have 3 hitters and a stud SP or 4 hitters. If you were getting Gagne and Rivera of old, maybe I'd be a good idea but that's too much risk the way I see it.
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Postby George_Foreman » Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:09 pm

Actually, I think Slomo's plan might be a bit better. You could probably start a pretty good closers run between the 5th/6th rounds. KRod/Lidge/Rivera will all likely be gone then, but the rest should be around. Grab Izzy/Nathan or something like that and watch 5 more go off before your next pick.

Seems like it'd be worth a shot at least. ;-D
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Postby nuggets » Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:14 pm

^

Why would you grab Injury... I mean Izzy so high?
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Postby Thriller » Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:17 pm

Okay. What if you knew that you'd probably see the closer "run" between your 3/4 and 5/6 picks? This leaves you with almost having to take a lower value closer there or risk getting almost none at all.

The reason I'm asking is that I've drafted two Y! teams, one each to model the size of my "money" league drafts later this month. In each, I've gone almost exclusively hitters for the first 5-6 picks.

My starting staff has been headed by the likes of Smoltz/Schmidt/Davis, etc. My relief corps has been scraping the very bottom of the barrel, and in one case, only Reitsma/Weathers as my closers.

Am I paranoid? Or have I drafted value in my offense, with a solid base to trade from?
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:50 pm

I like starting the SP run at that point. I've done it before with picks like Sheets/Peavy or guys of that ilk last year (2005) when Peavy sometimes slid that far in the draft. Just don't get locked into doing it and miss getting value with both picks. Closer I wouldn't do it until your 5/6 picks and even then ONLY if both closers are good value for where you're picking them.
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Postby Iconoclastic » Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:55 pm

I don't get the point of starting runs. Why don't you just pick the players you want? How does this benefit you?
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Postby Thriller » Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:57 pm

The benefit I'm mullling over is being able to solidify one area of my team and then look elsewhere the rest of the draft.

Steals and saves are really the only two categories you can lock down with 2 top guys.

I'm just measuring this strategy at 3/4 or 5/6 against others to see which I feel more comfortable with.
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