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Postby DSheppard » Mon Oct 02, 2006 3:58 am

alright, seasons over.

time to give final evaluations on teixeira.

everything is AL only

14th in the AL in HR at 33
11th in the AL in RBI at 110
3rd in the AL in extra base hits due to having 45 doubles

1st in post ASB HR at 24
2nd in post ASB RBI

of course those are the postives, but they are pretty freakin good positives considering at the all star break it was unanimous that it was a lost season for teixeira and his stock had dropped significantly.

so yes overall still a very dissapointing season, but its better for fantasy that he had all the bad stats at the beginning and then returned to 2005 form, is easier to get confidence in him back then it would have been then if he had been consistant all year with those same dissapointing HR/RBI numbers.

now for some negatives.

really, his 2nd half wasnt quite as good as most people seem to think. his average was still below what i expect at around 285. his obp wasnt sky high or anything. his 60 rbis... well considering the post ASB peiord is shorter then the pre-asb period, thats about right. the 24 post asb homeruns is obviously excellent. so a nice 2nd half, but it was still a sub 1.0 ops, and there were some people in that range. he did produce though obviously.

2nd, im worried about the rangers offense. I know Carlos Lee isnt coming back, GMJ might now come back, you cant trust blalock AT ALL anymore (for gods sake 15 hr is ridiculous). their offense, unless moves are made, is basically michael young and tex, with a lot of guys with talent that arnt proven yet (kinsler.. although he is proved as decent, not as a key guy... also nelson cruz, gerald laird and such).

If the rangers dont have a powerhouse offense, he probably wont get back to 144 rbis regardless of his performance.


here is my 2007 prediction:

optimum: .315, .405, .610, 50 HR 145 rbi
minimum: .275, .370, .520, 35 HR, 105 rbi

my guess: .290, .385, .590, 44 HR, 128 rbis.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:19 am

With a strong finish, you will still overpay for his services in 07... Watch.
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Postby TB13 » Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:58 am

Yoda wrote:With a strong finish, you will still overpay for his services in 07... Watch.

Not if he returns to his first round numbers. And there is no reason whatsoever not to expect such a return. Essentially, all he had was a bad 3 months. Given the track of his career and what he accomplished in the 2nd half, I see no reason why he cannot return to the status of being the best first baseman not named Pujols. If he returns to top-12 numbers, then you are not overpaying for him.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Oct 02, 2006 11:06 am

TB13 wrote:
Yoda wrote:With a strong finish, you will still overpay for his services in 07... Watch.

Not if he returns to his first round numbers. And there is no reason whatsoever not to expect such a return. Essentially, all he had was a bad 3 months. Given the track of his career and what he accomplished in the 2nd half, I see no reason why he cannot return to the status of being the best first baseman not named Pujols. If he returns to top-12 numbers, then you are not overpaying for him.


I think that is the whole point. People paid/overpaid for him in 06 expecting huge numbers. He didn't come close to what everyone was projecting (including me).

Given how he finished, he will most likely go in the first round now. I'll have to dig deeper into why he disappeared in the first half but I probably won't draft him in 07.
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Postby TB13 » Mon Oct 02, 2006 11:12 am

Yoda wrote:I think that is the whole point. People paid/overpaid for him in 06 expecting huge numbers. He didn't come close to what everyone was projecting (including me).

Exactly. People overpaid THIS year, but there are plenty of indications that point to a return to excellence, over the course of the entire year, not just post -Break. If someone pays for him as a first-rounder next year, I do not think they will be dissappointed.

One stat that does not get talked about is how poorly he hit at home. That is not going to continue.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Oct 02, 2006 11:20 am

TB13 wrote:
Yoda wrote:I think that is the whole point. People paid/overpaid for him in 06 expecting huge numbers. He didn't come close to what everyone was projecting (including me).

Exactly. People overpaid THIS year, but there are plenty of indications that point to a return to excellence, over the course of the entire year, not just post -Break. If someone pays for him as a first-rounder next year, I do not think they will be dissappointed.

One stat that does not get talked about is how poorly he hit at home. That is not going to continue.


The chance of him disappointing as a first rounder is greater than some of the other choices that early in the draft. I'll pass.
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Postby TB13 » Mon Oct 02, 2006 11:56 am

Yoda wrote:The chance of him disappointing as a first rounder is greater than some of the other choices that early in the draft. I'll pass.

Fair enough. We may have to have a wager on this, though. B-)
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Postby Yoda » Mon Oct 02, 2006 12:17 pm

TB13 wrote:
Yoda wrote:The chance of him disappointing as a first rounder is greater than some of the other choices that early in the draft. I'll pass.

Fair enough. We may have to have a wager on this, though. B-)


Nah, I don't feel strongly about it enough to bet.

Also I only bet money and only when I know my chances of winning are greater than not.
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Postby JTWood » Mon Oct 02, 2006 1:32 pm

Yoda wrote:Nah, I don't feel strongly about it enough to bet.

Dude! You've been ranting on this topic for 12 pages and 6 months now, and yet you still don't feel strong enough about it?

LMAO! :-D
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Postby Yoda » Mon Oct 02, 2006 1:33 pm

JTWood wrote:
Yoda wrote:Nah, I don't feel strongly about it enough to bet.

Dude! You've been ranting on this topic for 12 pages and 6 months now, and yet you still don't feel strong enough about it?

LMAO! :-D


Dude! This was for the 06 season! 07 is a little different you know?

LMAO! :-D
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