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Postby Yoda » Wed Mar 15, 2006 12:42 pm

tinfoilxtouch wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Zito is God wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Zito is God wrote:He'll have a nice bounceback effect IMO. I see RJ type K numbers with 15 Wins and a sub 3 ERA.


This is a joke right?


No, its not, I see most agree with me...


Expecting sub 3.00 era from Ollie is like expcting Dunn to hit over .300.


Ollie has done it. I don't know how you are so quick to discredit a 196 inning season with an era of 2.98 and a .207 BAA.

He totally changed his offseason routine last year and got burned. I'm not sure how you think it's sooo impossible for a kid to have a bas season and rebound. It's not like 2004 was a fluke, he had a k/bb of 3/1.


Notice the key word "expecting". If you guys are expecting Ollie to put up 2004, then he should be drafted in the first 5 rounds. That is how good he was. Given that his average drafted position is around 20th round, I don't know how you are "expecting" Ollie to put up a sub 3 ERA.
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Postby beerman648 » Wed Mar 15, 2006 1:23 pm

I think he will do better than most of you do think. Most of you assume a washout from this guy but he has the ability to be great as you pointed out. I think he will just be that as soon as a coach teaches him not to think so much.

185 k's 16 wins 3.2-.35 era but a whip of 1.42
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Postby tgalv » Wed Mar 15, 2006 1:50 pm

i think he's either gonna be close to his 2004 stats OR a complete disaster like last year. none of this combining the two years and taking the average malarky. he's either gonna figure it out or not figure it out. i think he's by far the best gamble of a SP in the late rounds.
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Postby The Jury » Wed Mar 15, 2006 1:54 pm

tgalv wrote:i think he's either gonna be close to his 2004 stats OR a complete disaster like last year. none of this combining the two years and taking the average malarky. he's either gonna figure it out or not figure it out. i think he's by far the best gamble of a SP in the late rounds.


Good point, and I tend to agree here. If he's finding the zone, he'll be a top pitcher. If not, then he's not going to have a good year, though his Ks may still be useful somewhere.
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Postby Zito is God » Wed Mar 15, 2006 2:06 pm

Yoda wrote:
tinfoilxtouch wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Zito is God wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Zito is God wrote:He'll have a nice bounceback effect IMO. I see RJ type K numbers with 15 Wins and a sub 3 ERA.


This is a joke right?


No, its not, I see most agree with me...


Expecting sub 3.00 era from Ollie is like expcting Dunn to hit over .300.


Ollie has done it. I don't know how you are so quick to discredit a 196 inning season with an era of 2.98 and a .207 BAA.

He totally changed his offseason routine last year and got burned. I'm not sure how you think it's sooo impossible for a kid to have a bas season and rebound. It's not like 2004 was a fluke, he had a k/bb of 3/1.


Notice the key word "expecting". If you guys are expecting Ollie to put up 2004, then he should be drafted in the first 5 rounds. That is how good he was. Given that his average drafted position is around 20th round, I don't know how you are "expecting" Ollie to put up a sub 3 ERA.


It's very simple mathematics, why take a guy in the top 5 rounds when you KNOW you can get him in the 15th-20th. I might be expecting Sizemore to put up 1st round numbers, so are you telling me I'd TAKE him 1st when I KNOW I can get him in the 4th or so? Hope that clears it up.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Mar 15, 2006 2:16 pm

Zito is God wrote:
Yoda wrote:
tinfoilxtouch wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Zito is God wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Zito is God wrote:He'll have a nice bounceback effect IMO. I see RJ type K numbers with 15 Wins and a sub 3 ERA.


This is a joke right?


No, its not, I see most agree with me...


Expecting sub 3.00 era from Ollie is like expcting Dunn to hit over .300.


Ollie has done it. I don't know how you are so quick to discredit a 196 inning season with an era of 2.98 and a .207 BAA.

He totally changed his offseason routine last year and got burned. I'm not sure how you think it's sooo impossible for a kid to have a bas season and rebound. It's not like 2004 was a fluke, he had a k/bb of 3/1.


Notice the key word "expecting". If you guys are expecting Ollie to put up 2004, then he should be drafted in the first 5 rounds. That is how good he was. Given that his average drafted position is around 20th round, I don't know how you are "expecting" Ollie to put up a sub 3 ERA.


It's very simple mathematics, why take a guy in the top 5 rounds when you KNOW you can get him in the 15th-20th. I might be expecting Sizemore to put up 1st round numbers, so are you telling me I'd TAKE him 1st when I KNOW I can get him in the 4th or so? Hope that clears it up.


That makes no sense. No one is 'expecting' Ollie to put up sub 3 ERA and be like he was 2004. This is the ONLY reason why you can get him in the 15-20th round.

Can he repeat 2004? Sure anything is possible. It's possible Beltre can repeat 2004. Unless Ollie gets his control back, chances are slim. Nothing I've seen so far indicates this is the case.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
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Postby UncleIvan » Wed Mar 15, 2006 4:45 pm

dewey finn wrote:I'm having trouble deciding between him, DCabrera or Bedard to use my end picks on.


Take all three. 1 or maybe even 2 of those will have usable numbers
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Postby Zito is God » Wed Mar 15, 2006 5:04 pm

Yoda wrote:
Zito is God wrote:
Yoda wrote:
tinfoilxtouch wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Zito is God wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Zito is God wrote:He'll have a nice bounceback effect IMO. I see RJ type K numbers with 15 Wins and a sub 3 ERA.


This is a joke right?


No, its not, I see most agree with me...


Expecting sub 3.00 era from Ollie is like expcting Dunn to hit over .300.


Ollie has done it. I don't know how you are so quick to discredit a 196 inning season with an era of 2.98 and a .207 BAA.

He totally changed his offseason routine last year and got burned. I'm not sure how you think it's sooo impossible for a kid to have a bas season and rebound. It's not like 2004 was a fluke, he had a k/bb of 3/1.


Notice the key word "expecting". If you guys are expecting Ollie to put up 2004, then he should be drafted in the first 5 rounds. That is how good he was. Given that his average drafted position is around 20th round, I don't know how you are "expecting" Ollie to put up a sub 3 ERA.


It's very simple mathematics, why take a guy in the top 5 rounds when you KNOW you can get him in the 15th-20th. I might be expecting Sizemore to put up 1st round numbers, so are you telling me I'd TAKE him 1st when I KNOW I can get him in the 4th or so? Hope that clears it up.


That makes no sense. No one is 'expecting' Ollie to put up sub 3 ERA and be like he was 2004. This is the ONLY reason why you can get him in the 15-20th round.

Can he repeat 2004? Sure anything is possible. It's possible Beltre can repeat 2004. Unless Ollie gets his control back, chances are slim. Nothing I've seen so far indicates this is the case.


What are you talking about?! It makes perfect sense to take him late even if you are expecting good numbers simply because he can be HAD late. Thats like saying just because I expect Sexson to stay healthy and put up 1st round numbers I immediately take him in the first. No one in their right mind would do that since Sexson can easily be taken later in the 3rd or 4th while using your 2 earlier picks on something else. Again, it's simple mathematics. You'd have to be nuts to take someone (no matter how good you expect them to be) in the 5th when you KNOW you can get him in the 15th! I don't care if I expected OP to get a Cy Young this year, I'd still take him in the 15th simply because I CAN while spending my 5th rounder on something else.

Oh, and btw, I think OP did a little better then put up "sub 3 ERA" during his breakout year my friend...
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Postby Yoda » Wed Mar 15, 2006 5:24 pm

Zito is God wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Zito is God wrote:
Yoda wrote:
tinfoilxtouch wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Zito is God wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Zito is God wrote:He'll have a nice bounceback effect IMO. I see RJ type K numbers with 15 Wins and a sub 3 ERA.


This is a joke right?


No, its not, I see most agree with me...


Expecting sub 3.00 era from Ollie is like expcting Dunn to hit over .300.


Ollie has done it. I don't know how you are so quick to discredit a 196 inning season with an era of 2.98 and a .207 BAA.

He totally changed his offseason routine last year and got burned. I'm not sure how you think it's sooo impossible for a kid to have a bas season and rebound. It's not like 2004 was a fluke, he had a k/bb of 3/1.


Notice the key word "expecting". If you guys are expecting Ollie to put up 2004, then he should be drafted in the first 5 rounds. That is how good he was. Given that his average drafted position is around 20th round, I don't know how you are "expecting" Ollie to put up a sub 3 ERA.


It's very simple mathematics, why take a guy in the top 5 rounds when you KNOW you can get him in the 15th-20th. I might be expecting Sizemore to put up 1st round numbers, so are you telling me I'd TAKE him 1st when I KNOW I can get him in the 4th or so? Hope that clears it up.


That makes no sense. No one is 'expecting' Ollie to put up sub 3 ERA and be like he was 2004. This is the ONLY reason why you can get him in the 15-20th round.

Can he repeat 2004? Sure anything is possible. It's possible Beltre can repeat 2004. Unless Ollie gets his control back, chances are slim. Nothing I've seen so far indicates this is the case.


What are you talking about?! It makes perfect sense to take him late even if you are expecting good numbers simply because he can be HAD late. Thats like saying just because I expect Sexson to stay healthy and put up 1st round numbers I immediately take him in the first. No one in their right mind would do that since Sexson can easily be taken later in the 3rd or 4th while using your 2 earlier picks on something else. Again, it's simple mathematics. You'd have to be nuts to take someone (no matter how good you expect them to be) in the 5th when you KNOW you can get him in the 15th! I don't care if I expected OP to get a Cy Young this year, I'd still take him in the 15th simply because I CAN while spending my 5th rounder on something else.

Oh, and btw, I think OP did a little better then put up "sub 3 ERA" during his breakout year my friend...


So would you bet me that Ollie does not post a sub 3.00 ERA for 2006?
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
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Postby Zito is God » Wed Mar 15, 2006 6:06 pm

How did you get anything in temrs of betting from all that I have written? I expect OP to get a sub 3 ERA barring injury in 2006, yes.
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