Ryan Howard = 40+ HR's ???

[duckbillgates]

This hype reminds me so much of Justin Morneau last year ...
Step 1) Highly touted youngster hits nearly 20 homers in about half a season.
Step 2) People incorrectly extrapolate those numbers over a full season, see 40 homers, start salivating.
Step 3) People draft said rookie as their starting first basemen.
Step 4) See Morneau's numbers last year. Yes, he got conked on the head, but still ...

I'm by no means saying this will happen, but I don't think Howard should be drafted ahead of some more "sure thing" first basemen.
In my keeper league, we don't have a utility slot and as many as 10 first basemen will be protected, allowing me to sit back and wait to grab either Dunn, Howard or Thome as late as I want. I don't really have a huge preference who I get.
Coincidentally, I actually think Morneau is a better value pick than Howard this year. If the hype gets too big, I say stay away.

[great gretzky]

well In a lot of these examples, the team didn't trade away a stud at the position either. To trade away Thome kind of says something about what the phillies think of him...

[TheGhostWhoWalks]

Except the stud in this instance is in his late 30's, has problems being active, let alone actually playing the field, and is owed an obscene amount of money. Given that all they were able to get for that stud was a average to slightly above average of shows his stud status was not really that high.

[great gretzky]

yea, true. but we are talking about a team looking to win this year though too. well supposedly.