I love drafting later into spring training, because everyone drafts the guy that's been hitting well. For Howard to hit 40 HRs he'll have to knock one out about once every 11 ABs, because he'll sit against lefties.
If you think Howard can knock one out at this pace, than go ahead and draft him expecting 40 HRs. I think Howard can do this in short bursts throughout the year, but not the whole season. He'll go into a slump because he's young, he'll tire down the stretch, he'll strike out too much... Howard won't be useless at 1B, and most likely be the 10th-14th best 1B.
...Boston papers now and then suffer a sharp flurry of arithmetic on this score; indeed, for Williams to have distributed all his hits so they did nobody else any good would constitute a feat of placement unparalleled in the annals of selfishness. -Updike