It seems each year, I wait way too long to draft a catcher. Last year for instance when I missed out on Pudge(4.1), Victor Martinez(5.2), Javy Lopez (5.4), and Posada (6.10), I wound up waiting until the last copule of rounds (25 and 26) to draft John Buck and JD Closser. Obviously this didn't pan out for me. I was left the entire year scraping the wire waiver for crap catchers. Problem is, we start two! (That is 324 games worth of stats!)
I don't want this to happen to me again. When should I start targeting one of the elite catcher. I have the 12th and 13th pick and am definitely going after two big bats. With my 3rd and 4th round, I want another big bat and then ???? If I wait on a catcher, I have a funny feeling that when I pick again the big guys will be gone. What to do?
I think that you can wait and still get decent 'bang' for your catcher bucks, guys like Barrett or Pierzynski will put up #s close enough to the 'big C guns' (VMart, Mauer [?*cough cough*]) at a point where their value will be MUCH closer to the non-catchers drafted around them that you 'win'. In the Mauer/ VMart territory, there are still extremely talented SP/ RP/ Bats going off the board that make Mauer and VMart questionable as picks.
I agree that the bottom of the draft guys (like Closser last year, I was big on him too...) have some risk but their advantage is their interchangability, i.e. they will put up very similar #s at minimal cost. Willingham is another guy I like a lot, as he has a potentially decent bat (for a C...) and who cares how he handles the pitchers on your fantasy team?
I agree with the above responses. First, you don't want to stick your neck out and overpay for one of the top guys. But then again, you don't want to get stuck with a bottom feeder either.
I was able to grab Barrett and B Molina in a league where we start two and I'm very happy with that. Depending on how savvy the other owners in your league are, Willingham could be a HUGE steal late in the draft for you.
In leagues with 2 catcher slots i think reaching for one early is completely valid. In leagues with 1 slot I never draft a catcher until the last couple rounds though since the FA catchers aren't much worse than the 5th best C.
Tactically, I was REALLY after Barrett (*cough cough* homer pick) but didn't pull the trigger and, when Barrett went, I took Pierzynski the round after after some other B/C catchers went. Not a big deal as it was like the 15th round or thereabouts as I guess everybody in our league read the 'don't draft C' articles or something like that?
This is a good reason to have tiers as you can spot when any of that 'grade' of C are drafted and plan to grab one of the others in your next pick or two and have some additional flexibility, instead of the more precise method of putting a specific value on a single player and taking them when it's their time.
V Mart's position adjusted value has him between 13-24 for 5x5 roto. That means him going in the 3rd round or lower is a steal. His edge over the average Catcher (and with 2 catchers in your league this edge is increased approx 33%) is larger than the edge between a M Young or a Paul Konerko and the average SS or 1B. For your league, go for him in the 3rd round.
Grady Sizemore will have more value than Jason Bay regardless of draft position
Aramis Ramirez in 155 G will hit over .300 40 HR 110 RBIs
Brian McCann will have more value than Jorge Posada regardless of draft position
I wouldn't reach on V-Mart, but if he's the BPA at your pick, go ahead and take him. If Mauer slips, go ahead and take him, too.
There is so much depth at catcher this year. As with other positions, just see who slips. If one of the catchers flips, go ahead and take him. There are many catchers in the early teens to take if that's what you want...
Personally, I have been waiting till the waning rounds of the draft to take a catcher, as I prefer working on other positions throughout the rest of the draft. I've been taking Josh Willingham pretty consistently in the last round. I think he's going to have a fine year. JMO, though.
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Iconoclastic wrote:V Mart's position adjusted value has him between 13-24 for 5x5 roto. That means him going in the 3rd round or lower is a steal. His edge over the average Catcher (and with 2 catchers in your league this edge is increased approx 33%) is larger than the edge between a M Young or a Paul Konerko and the average SS or 1B. For your league, go for him in the 3rd round.
This is absurd... No way would I ever take VMart this early... you should wait til one of the last rounds and grab like Molina/McCann/Willingham/Barrett, ect. I like drafting with people who feel they need to reach on a catcher in the 4-5-6th rounds while I pick up guys like Matsui...