this si what makes the game more of an art than science sometimes. You can't "compare" the numbers so to speak, you have to ave a feel for where the draft is going and what is likely to happen.
I'd say picking a guy to trade later is sometimes rough. Although in this case, take helton. If he bounces back, then you have all sorts of flexibility. If he goes 25, .300 85, then you have a nice player who could serve you well in a trade.
Although with certain things like steals and saves, taking too many of them just devalues your assets, since if one team hogs them all, the other teams can get more points for less investment than usual. If they all refuse to trade with you, you can jsut get stuck.
In this situation, I'd actually take Harden or Zambrano. The key to this, IMO, is that it's a 10-team league. Assuming that each person needs to play only one 1B, there's a good chance that everyone will end up with a good 1B even if you take Helton here.
These are the top 1B going into '06 (ranked by Yahoo ADP):
That list includes 11 guys (Pujols through Dunn) that a team would be happy to have as their starter. Even considering that Berkman and/or Dunn may be drafted as an OF, you also have to consider that there's probably going to be at least one guy who has no problem with Thome as a starter. So there's a decent chance that you'd be stuck with an extra 1B - a very good hitter who you can play at Utility - but you can't necessarily count on someone needing a 1B after the draft.
I should add, though, that if you're content holding on to him for a month or so, there's probably a decent chance that somone's 1B will get injured or slump badly, in which case you could trade Helton or Ortiz to them for a SP.
If the gap is minimal, I think you take the need position. If it's a player that slipped out of a higher tier, you probably take him, as long as there are players at the position you need available later in the draft.
Since you're rather early in the draft, you can probably afford to make up ground at SP later on. That being said, I don't see a huge gap between Helton and the SPs (I've seen Helton go in the 4th in many drafts and he looks like he's ~3rd round quality). If you like Helton that much, though, go ahead and take him.
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